Given the clear divergence in strategy, between England and Scotland, in the last month or more, it’s worth looking at possible effects on more recent infection rates and death rates.

Scotland’s 7 day average for new infections is 17 and for new deaths is 6: https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

England’s 7 day average for new infections is 241 and for new UK deaths is 196: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Note: For some reason England-only deaths are not published.

So at just over 10 times the population, England should have, pro rata, a daily average of 170 news cases but has 241, 42% higher.

At 12 times the population, the UK should have pro rata, a daily average of 72 new deaths but has 196, approaching three times higher.