By Sam
Commenting on a moronic Herald piece by Guy Stenhouse, John observed:”It’s quite clear that in the first few weeks the UK Government’s strategy was herd-immunity and “taking it on the chin”. What is the strategy now?
There is informed speculation here. https://99-percent.org/what-is-the-governments-coronavirus-strategy/
Take a look at the available strategies?
“The four generic strategies are:the laissez-faire strategy – let the virus take its course without interrupting normal economic activity in the hope of building herd immunity quickly and doing minimum damage to the economy;the isolate the vulnerable strategy – as above but find a way to protect those most at risk: the elderly, BAME, economically disadvantaged and those with underlying conditions;the retard the progress of the virus strategy – pursue the herd immunity strategy, but slowly so as to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed;the lockdown and eliminate strategy – maintain a tight lockdown to reduce cases to a number where other means of elimination (most likely Test, Trace and Supported Isolation) become feasible.The UK government has never explicitly stated which of these strategies it is following: even at the point of lockdown, it was not clear whether the strategy was lockdown and eliminate or lockdown in order to retard. And therefore it is hard to know for sure whether they have been following the best strategy.
In February, Johnson made a speech suggesting that the UK would take on the virus, “as the supercharged champion, of the right of the populations of the earth to buy and sell freely among each other.” That looks like laissez-faire.
According to the Independent, the SAGE group told the UK government of the risks of laissez-faire: “Professor Medley also confirmed reports that the government was told in late February – long before the Imperial College study – that half a million people could die in the UK without a lockdown.”
Then, later in the month as The Independent reports:“Boris Johnson told Italy’s president he was aiming for herd immunity to defeat coronavirus, an explosive TV documentary has revealed, despite No 10 denying that was ever the policy. The Italian health minister has undermined the government’s repeated denials by recounting a conversation between the two leaders on 13 March, as the pandemic neared its peak.
‘I spoke with [Giuseppe] Conte to tell President Conte that I’d tested positive [for coronavirus].’ Pierpaolo Sileri told Channel 4’s Dispatches. ‘And he told me that he’d spoken with Boris Johnson and that they’d also talked about the situation in Italy. I remember he said, ‘He told me that he wants herd immunity’.”
When, mid March, Imperial College published its modelling to show the large number of deaths that would follow a policy of laissez-faire it was politically impossible to follow this course. A week later the lock down was introduced. It was during this time that Whitty and Vallance were emphasising the need to time changes well and miscalculating badly the speed with which the virus would sweep through the UK.
Since then the lock down has been effective at the cost of the economy. This has led some elements of the media and the Conservative party to say that it is time to lift the lock down.
“Some claimed that the government’s messaging on lockdown had been too effective and had caused too great a curtailment of economic activity. So just before VE day, Government sources let it be known that a relaxation was coming. And it duly came with the clear messaging about staying at home replaced by ambiguous messages about alertness and common sense, and with many of the restrictions now accompanied by phrases like “where possible.”
And on 1 June, in the wake of the public controversy over Dominic Cummings’s breach of the lockdown rules, the first stage of unlock was announced.”
What the government might be doing now is adopting a strategy of trying to keep the levels of infection at a level that will not overwhelm the NHS. It might be reverting, without telling us, to the herd immunity strategy. What it does not seem to be doing is trying to eradicate the virus. That may be the aim of the Scottish government and the governments of Wales and N Ireland. The UK government has moved from a policy of laissez-faire that would have killed many to lockdown and now, perhaps, to retarding the progress of the virus through England. and herd immunity There has been no settled strategy to covid19 by the UK government. (The return of some of the schools in England has been cancelled.) The UK government may well be back to herd immunity. If so, the rest of the UK has cause to worry.
https://99-percent.org/what-is-the-governments-coronavirus-strategy/
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Oh yes we most certainly do have cause to worry
Because here is my daily update of the increasing divergence since 1.6.20 to 9.6.20 in increase in case & death nos
For Scotland and England
Note Scotland has 9.8% of the population of England since ease of lock down
Case nos.increase from 1.6.20 to 9.6.20
Scotland +205
England +3181
Death nos.increase from 1.6.20 to 9.6.20
Scotland + 53
England + 1708
For cases increase Scotland has 6.8%
For death increase Scotland has 3.1 %
But on 1.6.20 start of lock down easing
For cases Scotland had 10.1%
For deaths Scotland had 6.8 %
Therefore in 9 days
Scotland share of cases fell from 10.1% to 6.8%
And for deaths from 6.8% to 3.1 %
All this is damming evidence proves what strategy England is now following
Although these figs.seem small in fact over a short period of 9 days they are DRAMATIC
Hope this ads weight to my point that I made 4 days ago that the figs can
only
Lead to demands that Scotland gains the power to control our Border with England
No problem with N.I. and to a lesser extent with Wales
Time for all 3 devolved parliaments to confront Westminster in Unison
Before this becomes cataclysmic for us
I only hope that the Scottish Government and their civil servants are aware of this most frightening of developments
Time is of the essence NOW
AS the divergence is accelerating with terrifying speed and little doubt if no action taken soon ALL WILL BE LOST
LikeLike
PS
I forgot to mention that Scotland today surpassed the no.of tests / million of Pop.
Than Norway
So our test track is definately working in the most positive of
manners As Norway is in the top 3 countries handling this virus
As in last 9 days only 115 new cases a 3 new deaths
LikeLike
Thanks for these comparative figures.
Are you keeping these updates and can you bring them to visibility? They are politically powerful looking.
LikeLike
Yes i keep track daily
But how do you get such out to the right people and not to gain political capital
But merely to demonstrate what Scotland can do when it has the requisite powers
And in comparison to England
As a trained scientist i know these figs are spectacular and in any research project
Undoubtfully create excitement in the research team spurring them on to keep going and find out the causes which led to such a result
The data still moving in the same direction
And rate of change is increasing
Why because the causes are the effects of actions both in recent and long time past
No effect can ever arise without a cause
No cause can ever arise that does not have a effect
And be mindful of that sometimes the smallest of stones cast upon the calmest of waters ( the cause )
Can cause the largest of splashes ( the effect)
But such concepts are very difficult to convey to the masses as a lone voice
I assure all i apply the strictest of criteria to my methods and as such they are 100 % accurate and irrefutable and any who challenge are merely placing their leg into a gin trap that ensures there is no where to hide from the crass stupidty by which
They rose to the bait
The power of truth is the sharpest of swords than can silence and cut off tongues that speak ill of you in a wrongful manner
I would take on Lord Haw Haw (Murray)
Any day,Any where & any time
I would not even have to sharpen my sword to deal with his tongue
LikeLike
I have had very little doubt that herd immunity has never gone away. It is just that the public didn’t buy it and were starting to do their own social distancing. Rather than face the embarrassment and headlines in the tabloids they adapted to the least ambitious strategy which they could attempt knowing they had inadequate supplies and infrastructure. In short they made it up as they went along according to public pressure. They were following the herd.
The worst part is that in their proclaimed plan they said that the elderly would be protected. They haven’t even tried to do that and Devi Sridhar doesn’t even think that shielding is possible.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/29/shielding-impossible-coronavirus-testing-and-tracing
So both untried: herd immunity without a vaccine and ‘shielding’. This really does stink of Cummings.
So where are we at now. To me it absolutely clear that the mixed messages since the easing were deliberate. Create confusion and then blame the public. I am afraid the BLM protests are going add to that. Anyone who thinks that Priti Patel wants us to stop protesting, well i have a brand new record player for sale.
LikeLiked by 2 people
It is obvious that UK is still trying to manage the virus. Since the effects of whatever they do, including changing several variables at the same time, will not be measurable until at least 2 weeks later they are playing a very dangerous game.
Suppression should be the policy.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Devi Sridhar Retweeted
Samy Ahmar
@SamyAhmar
·
29 May
Struggling to understand the strategy in England- totally muddled. Kids need to get back to school. Is the goal to get rid of the virus or is to let it run through & stay within NHS capacity?Complete absence of leadership in England.
LikeLiked by 2 people
richard horton
@richardhorton1
·
6h
Independent SAGE concludes that England’s test and trace system simply won’t be able to keep the pandemic in check. “The system, as it stands, is not fit for purpose”, argues Sir David King.
LikeLiked by 1 person
UK gov’s guidance to pubs and restaurants says nothing about people keeping a distance of 2 metres
LikeLike