Herald’s statistics expert means to say Scotland’s coronavirus death rate is by no means worst in world

In the Herald:

Scotland’s coronavirus death rate is one of the worst in the world, according to a statistics expert. The situation in Scotland has been described as ‘particularly acute’, according to Jamie Jenkins, former head of analysis for the ONS. He told The Sunday Times that the excess death rate of people in Scotland, which tracks deaths above the normal level, is higher than Italy and the United States, however is lower than the UK as a whole.

Here’s the situation in Europe:

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

At the peak of the infection in April, Scotland’s death rate was one of the lowest in Europe:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8284613/UK-European-states-not-COVID-19-downward-slope-EU-says.html

Over the last ten weeks, the average Z scores suggest England has nearly 3 times the Scottish excess mortality rate:

http://www.progressivepulse.org/politics/covid-19-is-the-uk-response-improving

In Fig. 4 excess z-scores for Britain and Ireland are plotted. The average z-score from week 10-20 are:

  • England 19.89
  • Scotland 7.63
  • Wales 7.07
  • Northern Ireland 3.31
  • Ireland 0.84

England does extremely badly on this measure.

http://www.progressivepulse.org/politics/covid-19-is-the-uk-response-improving

3 thoughts on “Herald’s statistics expert means to say Scotland’s coronavirus death rate is by no means worst in world

  1. The apparent manipulation of statistics is a condemnation of the Heralds editor, and the team of journalists who elevated this story far above its merits.

    Liked by 1 person

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