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From stewartb:
There is now so much heat – rather than light – being generated by the corporate media and opposition politicians in Holyrood over the “Nike Conference” incident. So, it seems appropriate, and timely, to get some context when assessing its likely significance. Please bear with this as we construct the argument.
The media’s ‘big’ claim
One of the most read newspapers in Edinburgh chose this headline on 11 May:
The newspaper was amplifying, uncritically for Edinburgh residents the content of a BBC Scotland documentary: “A conference staged by sports goods giant Nike at an Edinburgh hotel was ‘Ground Zero’ for the coronavirus outbreak in Scotland and subsequent delays introducing lockdown measures cost more than 2,000 lives, a BBC documentary reported tonight.”
So the implication seems clear: one event attendee coming into Edinburgh is being identified as THE critical originator of Scotland’s subsequent epidemic and associated with ‘more than 2,000’ deaths. That’s a big claim! And it begs at least one important question.
Was there more than one visitor to Edinburgh?
How many visitors from across the world arrived into Edinburgh around the same time? Given the incubation period for Covid-19 is between 7 and 14 days, we attempt a rough (order of magnitude) estimate – making assumptions clear – of visitors arriving into Edinburgh during the month of February 2020 i.e. in the period immediately before and during the Nike event.
We focus only on visitors coming by air and we restrict this to ones using Edinburgh Airport. We base this estimate on Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) data.
The CAA data source
The CAA data give overall passenger numbers using the airport; numbers using non-UK carriers; and numbers for named international destinations. We need to make a key assumption. The CAA gives aggregate totals for inbound plus outbound passengers for each of these metrics: we make the assumption that the number of inbound passengers to Edinburgh Airport is 50% of the inbound plus outbound totals. (Candidly, the ‘point’ being made is not sensitive to the precise ratio!)
Inbound air travellers to Edinburgh Airport
The inbound passenger numbers based on the CAA data for February 2020 and our stated assumption are set out below.
Inbound from Coronavirus ‘hotspots’
We focus now on passengers arriving in February 2020 from what was already a known Covid-19 ‘hotspot’, namely Northern Italy.
For background, we know that: “On 22 February, there were 54 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Italy. By 2 March, that number had surged to 1,694.”
Source: https://www.thejournal.ie/italy-coronavirus-5038359-Mar2020/
We present CAA data for the area as a whole (aggregate of data for all airports in Northern Italy) and also data for selected individual northern Italian airports.
And the point is?
It’s simple is it not? In addition to the ONE infected Nike employee receiving ALL the media and opposition politicians’ attention, during February there were a ‘few’ other people coming to Edinburgh, and Scotland, through Edinburgh Airport.
A ‘few’ others? Well actually many others – an estimate of c. 17,000 from Northern Italy, a location where Covid-19 was taking a strong hold. It’s just possible – is it not – that one, two or ‘more’ of these 17,000 souls who left a Covid-19 ‘hotspot’ to travel to Edinburgh may have contributed to a ‘ground zero’, rather than just one Nike employee.
Background
The Nike event was held in Edinburgh on 26 and 27 February, 2020. The story being reported is that one of 70 Nike employees attending the conference from across the world brought the virus to Edinburgh, infected many of their fellow delegates who then took it back to their own countries. Of the 25 confirmed cases linked to the event, eight were residents of Scotland – presumably all identified, known about by some international contact tracing.
For further context, Scotland’s first confirmed case of Covid-19 was in Tayside on 1 March.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
The reporting of the Nike Conference in Edinburgh is reaching hysterical proportions in the Scottish media and amongst the unionist parties.
They are continually attacking trust in the SG, the FM and the Health Secretary, while largely ignoring the fact that there is a serial proven liar issuing a stream of misleading, contradictory and often mendacious statements.
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This, from Taiwan, has been up before.It helps still to add context and, I hope, some force to stewartb’s post.
“From a statistical point of view, the probability of physically encountering the novel coronavirus or of being exposed to infected individuals in large international airports or in the cabins of airplanes is much higher than in homes, workplaces, schools or other public spaces.”
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/03/22/2003733144
Singapore
“The Ministry of Health (MOH) announced 47 new cases of Covid-19 in Singapore on March 21.
Of these cases, 39 are imported, with 16 of them having a travel history to the UK.”
https://mothership.sg/2020/03/covid-19-uk-imported-cases/
Hong Kong
“Hong Kong confirmed 25 coronavirus cases on Wednesday, the highest number in a single day, most of them coming from overseas, reflecting the new risk confronting the city after its initial success in keeping a lid on infections.”
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075731/coronavirus-imported-cases-surge-eight-more-test
This suggests that asymptomatic infection is likely to be a major cause of transmission.
“Wu Tangchun, a public health expert at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, who led the study, told Nature, “By our most conservative estimate, at least 59% of the infected individuals were out and about, without being tested and potentially infecting others. This may explain why the virus spread so quickly in Hubei and is now circulating around the world.”
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/people-with-mild-or-no-symptoms-could-be-spreading-covid-19/
“Ground zero” my arse. What effing malign stupidity from BBC and Scotsman
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I missed this awful programme. “Ground zero” is the base or starting point. So the BBC and Scotsman want people to believe the covid19 virus first came to Scotland via the Nike event. How can this ever be proved or disproved.?
I think we will get sight of the report done by the public health people doing the contact tracing after the event. We may know, though I doubt it, the first source of the virus.
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“I think we will get sight of the report done by the public health people doing the contact tracing after the event.”
Careful, now! If one of them went down to the Cheltenham races the SG might end up taking the blame for the infection in England. I wouldn’t put it past the tiny minds of the ravening horde.
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It can be disproved very easily based on the incubation time before symptoms appear bearing in mind that the person is infectious during the last few days before symptoms appear.
The first recorded case in Scotland was 1st March – the person lived in Tayside and had been on holiday in N. Italy where they had become infected. Taking 7 days as the incubation period and allowing a day or two for testing and getting the result then they were probably infected around 21-23Feb in Itlaly. Long before the Nike conference
The conference was held on 26 – 27 Feb. Patient zero went home on 28th(?) FEB. Displayed symptoms and was tested between 29th Feb to 1st or 2nd March. The public health authorities immediately told the relevant health authorities here who immediately set up test and track to find attendees at the conference.
Those who attended the conference and had contact with patient zero would not, assuming standard incubation time, show symptoms until 4th to 5th March by which time the search for attendees was underway.
Hope that helps.
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By assuming a pro-rata distribution of inbound visitors from Northern Italy, or indeed any other place which has a flight connection to Edinburgh,using CAA data the number of potential carriers of the infection can be estimated for your or any time period.
The notion that the Nike case can be used to justify the media’s and opposition politicians’ ‘outrage’ is farcical. And especially so since asymptomatic people can infect others and as evidence presented by Sam above shows big airports and flights are highly dangerous places in terms of spreading infection.
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I am surprised that they are highlighting the length of time it took Scotland to go into lockdown,since the legal powers to do so lay with Westminster at that time.
Absolutely,I doubt there was one single point of infection responsible for the outbreak in Scotland.
The failure to shutdown our borders sooner was definitely a contributory factor which again,as far as I am aware,is a matter reserved to Westminster.
Have a friend who was in the Canaries at the time of the outbreak there and was quarantined in a hotel for a few weeks before getting deported on a home flight to the Edinburgh.
No checking or anything else on his return and allowed to behave in the same way as anyone else resident in the country.
The failures of the SG in handling this crisis are nothing compared to the dead hand of Westminster but,of course,you won’t read about that in HM press.
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Hi I am a long time follower and more power to yourself for all the work you do. Here is the truth about 9/11 —-have a look please.
regards hugh meikle
On Fri, May 22, 2020 at 1:49 PM Talking-Up Scotland Collective wrote:
> johnrobertson834 posted: ” Image Longford Leader-Getty Headline and image > chosen by Editor. From stewartb: There is now so much heat – rather than > light – being generated by the corporate media and opposition politicians > in Holyrood over the “Nike Conference” incident. So” >
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