Above: 7 day average of new infections falls fairly steeply from 4 weeks ago, 319 to 163 yesterday. Below: New deaths fall more slowly but steadily from 50 four weeks ago, to 35, yesterday.
Daily number in ICU falling for 33 days now:
5 day average of new cases in care homes falling dramatically:
- May 2-8: 152 new cases
- May 9-15: 95 new cases
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Thanks for forwarding Travelling Tabby’s excellent and rigorous data tracking.
One of the things which I noticed regarding the UK (i.e. England, Wales, Scotland, but not so much NI, which appears to have been less severely affected.) is that while the trend has plateaued and started a steady fall, the gradient is much shallower than, say, Italy or Spain. I wonder what the reason is?
Whatever it is, I think it shows that the SG and the WG are correct to continue to be cautious (as is the NI Government), until the number of daily new infections. What the ‘R’ number is, needs to be made more accurate, but also, be estimated, too, on more local bases. For example the Western Isles and Orkney will have different R numbers to Dundee or Greenock. So, we might have to have more localised adjustments to the isolation advice. This will probably need to have Councils empowered, working in conjunction with local NHS Boards and local Police Scotland officers.
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Data proves strategy working
From Captain on the bridge MV Alba
Steady as you go,maintain course
Stay alert all crew
Meanwhile from Captain Boris and 1st officer Dominic of SS Britania (Titanic)
Full steam ahead.
Maintain course
Any one got binoculars for watch in the crows nest Not really required Dominic assures Me he is a Hawkeye
Tell the my fellow band members play on
We are sailing We are sailing
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