We heard this from Gordon Brewer this morning:
There is also a view. It was put by one columnist in a newspaper this morning very bluntly that at the beginning of this there was an understandable desire to clear out acute wards in hospitals in order to make room for what was expected to be a possible overwhelming surge in coronavirus patients and that in effect elderly people were dumped out of hospitals into care homes! Now there is a letter from NHS England but that wouldn’t apply up here which talked about getting 30% clear-out rates in hospitals. Did that happen here? Was there a spike in admissions to care homes in the middle of March?
Responding to the strategy of preventing acute care from being overwhelmed, in March 2020, only 1 171 people were delayed in being discharged from Scottish hospitals. In February, 1 627 had been delayed. So an additional 456 had been accelerated out of the hospitals and into care of some kind.
Even if we agree that all of those ‘extra’ 456 were then admitted into care homes rather than, for example, into their own or family homes, there were around 32 000 older people already in care homes (2017 census was 32 691) making this a ‘spike’ of only 1.4%. There are 916 care homes for the elderly in Scotland, so the average increase would have been 2 new residents requiring a period of isolation until the second test result came in.
I think that’s that scare story ‘put to bed.’
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Recall for further context this from a btl post here on 10 May @ 4:14 pm. It comes from the risk register in the 2019 Annual Report of the major UK care home investor ‘Impact Healthcare REIT’ published in April 2020.
The risk register recognises this: Risk – Pandemics/ Probability: high/ Impact: major. It then states: “The immediate risks of an outbreak are REDUCED OCCUPANCY at care homes and the lack of availability of key workers at the care homes as a result of infection or a requirement to self-isolate. (my emphasis)”
“Should a pandemic take hold and not be capable of being contained, it could compound and enhance a number of principal risk, not least general economic conditions, default of one or more tenants and ability to meet our financing obligations.” (Impact Healthcare’s business model seems to be to buy up homes – the property – and lease them back under long term deals to care providers.)
Notably on risk ‘mitigation’ the Annual Report states: “As the NHS prepares for a continuing and growing outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, our tenants have noticed AN INCREASE IN DEMAND FOR BEDS as the NHS seeks to relieve pressure on hospitals. This INCREASE IN DEMAND COULD HELP MITIGATE THE EFFECT ON REDUCED OCCUPANCY if an outbreak occurs in a care home.”
This care home investor sees increased take-up of beds by people discharged from hospital to a home with a Covid-19 outbreak and experiencing a reduction in occupancy as a positive (mitigating) commercial factor to counter its reducing occupancy. So there is a strong indication here that care homes may be only too willing to reduce any commercial hit by accepting transfers from hospitals at this time – to view the prospect of any such transfers as being of substantial commercial benefit.
(Link to Impact Healthcare REIT’s annual report: https://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/FundsLibrary.DataRetrieval/Documents.aspx/?type=sl.ra.full&id=cd00f642-c8ba-43d9-93f4-217a63a79e98&user=HZfNkLoiKn4yX5UY42XBHZGc5K80af9UMf0kSlrJLE7GYeVk%2bcsmdOYCxcOGsBVy&r=1 )
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Interesting article in the Guardian online.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/17/hospital-patients-england-coronavirus-covid-19
How long will it take the Tories/MSM in Scotland to manufacture a similar story and will pigeons be involved?
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They will doo
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I only saw a little of the programme. I tuned in late and turned off early.I did notice that the producer was turning down the sound on Dr Macaskill frequently, denying him the chance to complete his answers. I also noticed that Brewer seemed to be talking rather more than Dr Macaskill. i wonder what the stopwatch might say
.I cannot think that an interview can be successful when an interviewee is denied the chance to speak and the interviewer not only talks over the answers, as Brewer did, but speaks for longer than the interviewee, as Brewer seemed to do while including untruths in what he was saying. Typical BBC?
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Brewer is always red faced and angry he has problem , wonder what it is HBP , cigs
? Or something else ?
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I agree, Terence.
Just forced myself to watch the whole programme on iPlayer and my distinct impression is that something is not right here.
The interviewer, or rather inquisitor, insisted on putting forward very leading questions to people whose obvious only concern was to assure the well-being of others. In general the interviewees came across as thinking and caring people who were doing their utmost to manage and ever improve the care of vulnerable folk in what are seriously trying circumstances.
Everyone spoken to showed a willingness to make the best of the situations they found themselves in by reasoned flexibility and a desire to cooperate with others to achieve improvement.
It was obvious that this was not the outcome desired by the BBC in making this programme. I would be very interested to know the views of anyone with psychological or psychiatric training and experience on this presentation to the public by our state broadcaster.
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Didn’t Brewer say that there were no staff engaged never mind ready for the TTI project?
Tweet from NS: “Nicola Sturgeon
@NicolaSturgeon
·
2h
Update on
@scotgov
work to introduce Test, Trace, Isolate, Support – 600 staff ready to start contact tracing work and technology being piloted in 3 health boards from tomorrow. https://gov.scot/news/contact-tracing-technology-piloted/”
Mistakes/lies/untruths
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” MSM_Monitor
@msm_monitor
Gordon Brewer continually cuts Dr Donald Macaskill off as he is trying to further expand on an answer. Brewer was pursuing an agenda and wanted answers that bolstered it. This clip also contains a blatant cut-edit at 3 min 59 secs by BBC Scotland.”s
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” direwolf@indyref2
@direwolfindepe1
@msm_monitor @goldfinch1952 Gordon Brewer continuously interrupts, or talks over him or cuts him off, or tries to twist his words when he’s not answering the way he wants him too. Brewer is a disgrace, pushing his own anti Scottish Government agenda. Terrible interviewer.”
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“The UK Government has reportedly managed to recruit 17,000 contact tracers in recent weeks. Meanwhile media reports surfacing this morning suggested no one had yet been appointed after the Scottish Government launched its recruitment programme at the beginning of this week.
The Government has said it could need up to 2,000 tracers in the weeks and months to come.
Speaking today, Jeane Freeman said: “I have every confidence we will reach that number of 2,000 by the end of this month which is when we said we should have test, trace, isolate and support fully ready to go, because it needs to match any easement of lockdown.”
https://healthandcare.scot/default.asp?page=story&story=1716
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“Jessie’s Fan Club
@jessiesfanclub
@JeaneF1MSP @clmbie It was also v disappointing that the Gordon Brewer show this morning allowed Carlaw to make the same criticism without bothering to put the point to @JeaneF1MSP or anyone else from @scotgov”
Couldn’t be bothered to do any basic checking. Just wanted a biased report. What an 4rse.
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”
MSM_Monitor
@msm_monitor
The takeaway from the ‘Gordon Brewer Agenda’ show [which is what Sunday Politics should be renamed] was that his aim was to attack Scottish Govt care home testing guidelines and push a narrative that easing bed-blocking introduced Covid into Scottish care homes.”
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“David McK 🏴
@dhmck
@BBCScotland Gordon Brewer making a great job of answering his own questions posed to Care Scotland’s Donald McCaskill.”
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Read? Bookmark?
Click to access bmj.m1932.full.pdf
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Maybe the Scottish government needs to fight back.
They are doing it in England but there they fight facts with lies not lies with facts. Surely we can do it right.
https://www.thecanary.co/uk/analysis/2020/05/17/the-sinister-trolling-of-journalists-by-the-tory-government-has-reached-fever-pitch/
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anandprasad – thanks for this alert to the Canary’s article. It needs to be given more profile and get confirmation. The article you link to includes this on UK government action:
“This (Westminster government) trolling is being partly run by the Rapid Response Unit. It works out of the Cabinet Office and Downing Street. In March, it openly announced what it was doing, saying:
When false narratives are identified, the government’s Rapid Response Unit coordinates with departments across Whitehall to deploy the appropriate response. This can include a direct rebuttal on social media, working with platforms to remove harmful content and ensuring public health campaigns are promoted through reliable sources.”
Who judges what are ‘false narratives’ I wonder!
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On the UK Government’s Rapid Response Unit – here is some more information:
https://www.prweek.com/article/1496346/rapid-response-unit-actually-works-and-why-its-important
Does the Scottish Government have anything even distantly comparable and well resourced?
If not, how disadvantaged is it now and how disadvantaged will it (and the Yes movement more widely) be when the campaign for independence is re-started?
And this is in addition to any covert 77th Brigade actions domestically.
Once again, thanks anandprasad for the information.
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