Why have more serious cases of covid-19 fallen so quickly?

Numbers of ICU admissions with COVID-19: https://beta.isdscotland.org/find-publications-and-data/population-health/covid-19/scottish-intensive-care-society-audit-group-report-on-covid-19/

The above graph from NHS Scotland shows a steep rise in the number of cases requiring intensive care, over the space of only two weeks, followed by a short plateau of less than one week, followed by a precipitous fall to single figures and then a gradual fall over three weeks toward zero. There have been none for ten days now.

The overall population being admitted to hospital is falling too but much less steeply, so why are the graph shapes so different?

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/

It takes a big man to admit he’s dumb and I’m getting bigger everyday on lock-down so don’t worry about my feelings. Tell me. Just tell me.

12 thoughts on “Why have more serious cases of covid-19 fallen so quickly?”

  1. One most likely reason is that experience along with excellent clinical ongoing study and recording how to react. As the disease develops
    All carried out by a well trained motivated
    Dedicated team Knowing that all their efforts are full supported by Government and Snr.management
    The latter is impossible to quantify but effects are considerable.This is what enables the Human spirit to sdefeof against the odds
    Due to protocol i cant say too much
    But close relatives of myself have Snr.positions in SHNS.One of whom is almost totally exhausted working 7 days 16 hrs / day
    For the last 8 weeks
    The poor soul cannot even be paid overtime as such is against the rules and on a flat salary
    But says his true reward comes from being fully appreciated by Government.whatever requests are made of the most snr.of managers and Governests they are met with expeditious and equal effort by all
    I suppose rather like a quote from Jock Stein
    A team who play as a team are the most difficult of all to defeat

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I noticed a small item in a report of the past few days, saying there has been an oxygen shortage. It inferred giving pure oxygen helped recovery before a severely ill patient was incubated. As intubation leads to complications, this, the shortage of oxygen, was being held as the worsening of the fatality rate. I regret being unable to remember the source.

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    1. I also read/heard about oxygen shortages, in England. I delved a bit deeper and concluded that rather than an oxygen shortage at source, it was a reduction in flow and pressure at the patient end. The pipe work bore could not keep up with the demand. Still a distress for the staff and patient and it does still leave a shortage of oxygen as a possible cause for the increase in fatalities.
      Is that how you remember the oxygen shortage?

      Liked by 1 person

    1. Is it that our Doctors and Nurses are managing to stop cases becoming serious due to a combination of oxygen now being readily available as Ray points and increased experience of handling cases as Premierone relates.

      Liked by 2 people

  3. I think that staff learning from experience and being adaptable is the main factor, because,it appears that NHS Scotland has shown remarkable resilience in transforming the way they work.

    It might be that the earlier cases were mainly people, who for a variety of reasons were more susceptible to infection and, more severely affected when they were infected and had fewer ‘reserves’ even with expert help when in ICU.

    Sadly since numbers have died, the remaining population is more ‘robust’ and, even when infected have more effective immune systems, which coupled with enhanced NHS expertise reduces the need for ICU.

    I have no formalmedicalbackground, so this is just an opinion.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. It may be something to do with different treatment for covid patients reducing the numbers who need ICU admissions. Do we have information on use of remdisiver (spelling??) as a virus inhibiting treatment ? This was maybe starting abt 1st week in April ? If effective this treatment may have reduced the numbers of covid patients needing ICU admission.
    Also the admissions profiles may not be the same as for the earlier period. as it became apparent that the NHS was not being overwhelmed as feared, then admissions criteria may have been changed to enable covid sufferers to be admitted at an earlier (less serious ?) stage of the disease.
    Both suggestions completely un-backed by expertise or evidence I’m afraid.

    Liked by 4 people

  5. It was copying the Germans and pumping oxygen into patients before their organs became seriously damaged and needed to go to ICU that has reduced the number of serious cases and the overall death rate.
    Something our brave heroes in the NHS didn’t bother doing early on, as they knew better.

    Also something our heroic “journalists” have not bothered reporting.

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  6. Could there be a connection with earliest outbreaks being in more deprived areas, linked with poorer health outcomes in general?

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