Under-reporting of English care home deaths may not be so ‘slight’

From stewartb:

In a BBC News online article published on 12 May with the ‘Reality Check’ label we learn this:

“From the end of April, the government started including care homes in its daily death statistics, but there could be SLIGHT UNDER-REPORTING in these numbers, as they only include deaths where someone tested positive for coronavirus.” (my emphasis)

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52284281

It had an embedded link from the phrase ‘but there could be SLIGHT under-reporting’ taking the reader to a Public Health England (PHE) report published on 29 April.

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/882565/Technical_Summary_PHE_Data_Series_COVID-19_Deaths_20200429.pdf

Curious, I visited the linked source – searched for ‘slight’, searched for ‘under-reported’ and variants, and had a quick scan of the text. Candidly, I find it hard to see the justification for the BBC’s use of the term ‘SLIGHT’! However I did find this in the PHE report’s Q&A which hardly backs up the BBC’s contention::

“5. Does this represent everyone in the country who has died from COVID-19?

This dataset includes all deaths in people who had a positive COVID-19 test in Public Health and NHS laboratories in England. Combining deaths from multiple sources reduces the risk of underreporting compared to the current data series.

However, this data series does not include deaths in people who had suspected COVID-19 but were never tested, for example those linked to an outbreak or had COVID-19 symptoms at the time of death. These deaths will be identified over time through ONS death registrations.”

If I had the energy and motivation – BBC ‘fails’ are becoming just so boring – I’d read the document and if appropriate formally complain. But to what purpose? Prior experience tells me not to bother – but don’t let me put others off!!!

2 thoughts on “Under-reporting of English care home deaths may not be so ‘slight’

  1. If the datasets mentioned in the Item 5 excerpt only cover deaths in people who had a positive COVID-19 test in Public Health and NHS laboratories in England, then as you say, they omit people who hadn’t previously tested positive for Covid19. That implies that they could also omit all deaths where the testing and analysis was carried out in private labs. My understanding is that significant use was made of private lab testing/analysis in England (cf the role of accountancy firm Deloittes).

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    1. Candidly I don’t know for certain anymore – I’ve lost confidence in my understanding of the various official figures coming out for England.

      Overall, including for Scotland, I suspect the most reliable and useful number, including for inter-country comparisons, will prove to be the ‘excess mortality’ data. The number of deaths statistic is not vulnerable to either spin, partial or inconsistent reporting or subjective judgement in completing cause of death on a certificate.

      The z-scores by country graphs produced and updated weekly by EuroMOMO are very, very interesting!

      https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

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