https://www.eagleradio.co.uk/news/uk-news/3100190/coronavirus-commuters-pack-london-tube-platforms-after-pms-lockdown-announcement/

By brenda steele:

Put these three facts together and the new Boris plan should worry us all:

  1. Many people who have Covid19 are Asymptomatic.

The UK Government approach was justified by the many similarities between SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, including high genetic relatedness, transmission primarily through respiratory droplets, and the frequency of lower respiratory symptoms (fever, cough, and shortness of breath) with both infections developing a median of 5 days after exposure. However, despite the deployment of similar control interventions, the trajectories of the two epidemics have veered in dramatically different directions. Within 8 months, SARS was controlled after SARS-CoV-1 had infected approximately 8100 persons in limited geographic areas. Within 5 months, SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 2.6 million people and continues to spread rapidly around the world.

What explains these differences in transmission and spread? A key factor in the transmissibility of Covid-19 is the high level of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in the upper respiratory tract,1 even among presymptomatic patients, which distinguishes it from SARS-CoV-1, where replication occurs mainly in the lower respiratory tract.2.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2009758 New England Journal of Medicine: Asymptomatic Transmission, the Achilles’ Heel of Current Strategies to Control Covid-19

2. It takes only one  to infect many  in crowded conditions

South Korea had relaxed social distancing guidelines last week.

SEOUL HAS SHUT down more than 2,100 nightclubs, hostess bars and discos after dozens of coronavirus infections were linked to clubgoers who went out last weekend as South Korea relaxed social distancing guidelines.

The measures imposed by mayor Park Won-Soon came after the national government urged entertainment venues around the nation to close or enforce anti-virus measures, including distancing, temperature checks, keeping customer lists and requiring employees to wear masks.

Park said the closures will be maintained until the city concludes that infections risks have been meaningfully lowered.

South Korea’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention earlier said 18 fresh cases were reported in the 24 hours to midnight on Friday, all but one of them linked to a 29-year-old man who visited three clubs in the capital’s Itaewon district last Saturday before testing positive on Tuesday.

https://www.thejournal.ie/seoul-gangnam-5095091-May2020/ Covid-19: Seoul closes 2,100 nightclubs after last weekend’s clubbing causes spike in infections

3. Among this crowd many more than one will be infected

To rub salt into the wound of his gross mockery, the so-called guidance the government promised on the ‘safe’ use of public transport was issued at 2pm today, hours after people were forced to flood back into the streets, trains and buses – terrifyingly shown on Transport for London CCTV footage.

After millions forced back to work this morning, govt only releases guidance at 2pm – then says changes not meant to take place yet. This is murder

Ed: The FT/Imperial College estimate 600 000 infected in London so how many on that Tube?