England’s excess death rate nearly THREE times higher than in Scotland

Increases in deaths above the average for the last five years are known as ‘excess deaths’ – and include both deaths from Covid-19 and other conditions.

From anandprasad

In the Sun, country wide comparison of extra deaths. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11542171/englands-excess-death-rate-highest-europe-coronavirus/


The Financial Times does a great graph of this but not of the UK countries
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

The Sun data comes from here: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Z-scores:
England: peak 43.5 in week 15, now 31.52 in week 18
Scotland: peak at 15.65 in week 15, now 5.82 in week 18
NI peak 8.8 in week 15, now -1.1 in week 18
Wales peak 19.76 in week 15, now 2.44 in week 18

Z-score (y axis of Sun graph) defined as:
Z-scores are used to standardize series and enable comparison mortality pattern between different populations or between different time periods. The standard deviation is the unit of measurement of the z-score. It allows comparison of observations from different normal distributions.

In general, Z-score = (x-mean of the population)/Standard deviation of the population, which could be approximated in our context by S-score = (number of deaths – baseline) / Standard deviation of the residuals (variation of the number of deaths around the baseline) on the part of the series used to fit the model, used as the standard unit.

Where England has a z-score of 43.5 at its peak, in Denmark and Ireland the extra deaths are not noticeable.
Denmark had 2.34 at its peak in week 14 and is now 1.16 (it was much higher in Oct 2018 at 7.35).
Ireland has hardly deviated from the mean at all. It was highest in November last year before the outbreak (and even higher in Feb 2018 and Feb 2017) and is now well below the mean at minus 1.58

8 thoughts on “England’s excess death rate nearly THREE times higher than in Scotland

  1. I’ve heard it argued that England is ‘different’ because of its high population density – making person to person transmission more likely.

    However, as the EuroMOMO graphs of the z-scores for different European countries reveal, places with higher population densities such as The Netherlands and Belgium still have much lower scores than England.

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  2. Was the Sun graphic included in the a) Scottish print edition.
    b) English print edition
    c) Web edition

    Often articles in the Scottish MSM which have negative implications for the UK are not in the print edition.

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    1. Well definitely in the web edition. That is all i know, sorry.
      Quite good journalism from the Sun, they did slide in some stuff to try to lessen the punch later on though. Right now some of the the right wing media like Morgan and Neil are doing a better job than the rest.

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  3. I am obliged to the Institute for Government (IfG) – ‘the leading think tank working to make government more effective’ – for explaining how sensible, inter-governmental cross-border co-operation between a part of the UK and an adjacent independent nation-state located together on one island can be effective during a public health emergency.

    The IfG’s description of cross border collaboration on responses to Covid-19 between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland is given below. It’s no leap to envisage an independent Scotland and England on the island of Great Britain collaborating similarly, sensibly for the benefit of their respective citizens.

    Source: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/four-nation-exit-strategy-coronavirus.pdf

    The IfG states: “Specific considerations apply in Northern Ireland, where shared geography and a high level of cross-border movement create a need for close co-ordination with the Irish government … “

    “There has already been significant north–south co-operation to provide for elements of a joined-up response that recognises the idea of Ireland as a single epidemiological unit. For instance, the chief medical officers of the two governments have a weekly teleconference and the respective health departments signed a Memorandum of Understanding on how to ‘promote cooperation and collaboration in response to the COVID-19 pandemic”. There have also been discussions on travel restrictions across the two parts of Ireland, and an attempt at joint procurement of PPE.”

    More evidence – to add to that from the Nordic countries and from practical examples of cross-border solidarity in other places in mainland Europe – to keep in mind in order to counter inevitable scares from Unionists concerning the prospects for an independent Scotland in any future public health emergency.

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