Why is NW England’s covid-19 death rate 2.5 times higher per capita than that of Scotland?

Comparing England and Scotland is problematic on a number of points but especially because of the huge population difference (11 times) and the distorting effect of the differences in wealth and health between Scotland and the South including a mega-city.

The North-west of England with its two major cities, Liverpool and Manchester and a population only around 40% higher, is much more comparable. As with Glasgow, these two cities experienced the devastating effects of de-industrialisation in the 70s and 80s.

Despite the similarities, however, Glasgow and other deprived areas in Scotland such as Dundee and Lanarkshire, have long had and continue to have, shorter life expectancy than the two English cities. Known as the ‘Glasgow effect’, this makes the much higher death toll in NW England all the more remarkable.

NW England’s population (7.3m) is 1.33 times higher than that of Scotland (5.5m).

NW England’s covid-19 infection rate (19 435) as of May 2, is 1.6 times higher than that of Scotland (11 927).

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102151/coronavirus-cases-by-region-in-the-uk/

NW England’s covid-19 death rate (4 003) as of 28 April, is 2.5 times higher than that of Scotland, as of 3 May (1 571).

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-many-people-have-died-in-your-area-covid-19-deaths-in-england-mapped-11969852

Once more we ask why. Once more, here is a list of possible reasons:

  • NHS Scotland’s higher staffing ratio.
  • Scotland’s hospitals with their in-house cleaning did not have mass Norovirus closures last winter as NHS England did.
  • NHS Scotland’s vastly superior A&E performance.
  • Scotland’s 50 unique coronavirus assessment centres keeping infected patients away from GP surgeries.
  • Evidence that urban Scots have obeyed the social distancing rules more than their counterparts in the South.

6 thoughts on “Why is NW England’s covid-19 death rate 2.5 times higher per capita than that of Scotland?

  1. You have correctly pointed out key areas
    That may explain the difference
    However may i add the following which i feel is the major factor in the better outcome in Scotland
    1. Although impossible to quantify
    A genuine caring and sympathetic leadership given unreserved manner

    Rather like the football team will run to they drop for the jersey and manager
    2.Scotland with already much in terms of management resources very quickly developed a Command & Control system
    Unlike England where 1 EHNS Trust has no clue what any other trusts are doing
    Rather like units of a army division being clueless what other units are doing
    A recipe for a thumping on the field of battle

    Liked by 3 people

  2. The death rates reflect poverty.Themore affluent have lower rates of mortality. Scotland, generally is not as poor as England generally. The difference is solely because Scotland built more social housing which have lower rents than the private sector.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Four days ago the BBC ran an article asking how many deaths there were in England’s care homes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52284281

    “This is a difficult figure to calculate.

    There are more than 15,000 care homes in England, compared with about 200 hospital trusts.

    There is a two-week time lag in the data collected for official statistics. The most recent figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are for the week ending 17 April. At that point, there had been 3,096 Covid-19-related deaths in care homes in England and Wales.

    This means that about 16% of all Covid-19 deaths to that point had occurred in care homes – a high proportion, considering they house less than 1% of the country’s population.”

    16% seems to be very low when compared with death rates in care homes in other countries. In a piece for Progressive Pulse, Professor Sean Dannaher attempted comparisonsof deaths in care homes in different countries.

    “Data from 5 European countries suggest that care home residents have so far accounted for between 42% – 57% of all deaths related to Covid-19.

    The European countries analysed are Belgium (42%), France (44.6%), Ireland (54%), Italy (c45%) and Spain (57%). It is difficult to see at present why the UK should be very different.”

    http://www.progressivepulse.org/health/care-homes-and-uk-mortality-figures

    Prof Dannaher finds the information here

    Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence.

    Also, he concludes that the UK care homes sector is similar in size to that of the countries whose death rates are around 50%.

    The BBC says there are 1.2 million adult social care workers in England giving direct care. There are, it adds 410,000 people in care homes in England. At the 2011 census, 60% of the elderly care home population were 85 or older – but this is now likely to be higher, given the ageing population.

    Each week in the UK, it is estimated that 540,000 people receive support in their own home.

    It is hard to see that there will not be,unfortunately, a surge in recorded deaths in the care homes and homes of the elderly in England.

    Liked by 1 person

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