From sam:

Four days ago the BBC ran an article asking how many deaths there were in England’s care homes.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52284281

“This is a difficult figure to calculate.

There are more than 15,000 care homes in England, compared with about 200 hospital trusts.

There is a two-week time lag in the data collected for official statistics. The most recent figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are for the week ending 17 April. At that point, there had been 3,096 Covid-19-related deaths in care homes in England and Wales.

This means that about 16% of all Covid-19 deaths to that point had occurred in care homes – a high proportion, considering they house less than 1% of the country’s population.”

16% seems to be very low when compared with death rates in care homes in other countries. In a piece for Progressive Pulse, Professor Sean Dannaher attempted comparisonsof deaths in care homes in different countries.

“Data from 5 European countries suggest that care home residents have so far accounted for between 42% – 57% of all deaths related to Covid-19.

The European countries analysed are Belgium (42%), France (44.6%), Ireland (54%), Italy (c45%) and Spain (57%). It is difficult to see at present why the UK should be very different.”

Prof Dannaher finds the information here:

http://www.progressivepulse.org/health/care-homes-and-uk-mortality-figures

Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes: early international evidence.

Also, he concludes that the UK care homes sector is similar in size to that of the countries whose death rates are around 50%.

The BBC says there are 1.2 million adult social care workers in England giving direct care. There are, it adds 410,000 people in care homes in England. At the 2011 census, 60% of the elderly care home population were 85 or older – but this is now likely to be higher, given the ageing population.

Each week in the UK, it is estimated that 540,000 people receive support in their own home.

It is hard to see that there will not be,unfortunately, a surge in recorded deaths in the care homes and homes of the elderly in England.