Herald exposes Pennington’s lack of up-to-date knowledge on testing

Leaving the UK would have meant we couldn’t rely of the advice of Matt Hancock!

Two days ago, we saw in the Herald, from the not really widely respected, bacteriologist/ virologist/ political activist:

Professor Hugh Pennington, emeritus professor of bacteriology at Aberdeen University, gave evidence to Holyrood’s health and sport committee – criticising leaders for “not putting enough emphasis on testing”.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18410402.coronavirus-hugh-pennington-mistakes-made-testing-ppe-care-homes/

Then, today, we read:

Earlier this month, South Korea’s health chiefs reported the puzzling – and potentially troubling – cases of 91 patients who appeared to have recovered from the infection only to test positive again later. It is unclear exactly why this happened but a ‘relapse’ rather than a re-infection has been suggested. There is evidence the virus may lie dormant at undetectable levels in human cells before potentially ‘re-activating’. Another explanation are false negatives. Conventional coronavirus tests can give the wrong result 20 to 30 per cent of the time, and are especially prone to error when a person is asymptomatic.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18414720.coronavirus-covid-vaccine-might-prove-impossible—especially-social-distancing-works/

Those models of the testing, testing, testing, school of thought, Germany and South Korea, are beginning to see worrying signs of relying on them as the basis for further steps.

Imperfect no doubt, but is the Scottish Government’s wider strategy of prioritising the testing of key-workers, distancing and a strict lock-down followed by very careful adjustments, turning out to be not-so-daft after all?

14 thoughts on “Herald exposes Pennington’s lack of up-to-date knowledge on testing”

  1. I am not a virologist, nor do I have any qualifications in public health, so this comment should be read in that context.

    My understanding of the testing regime prior to the early days of March was that those reporting they had the symptoms were tested and, if the test proved positive, then the people with whom this person was known to have been in contact were traced and tested and, if any of them showed as positive, the process was repeated with their contacts.

    This seems to be an efficient method of deploying the testing resources, especially if these are limited.

    Of course, there is the possibility that some people have not reported the symptoms carry the virus, and are therefore potential transmitters. So, if the testing resource is limited, testing those who are responsible for looking after health, particularly of ‘vulnerable’ groups – NHS and Care staff – seems to be the best next target group for testing.

    This can then be extended to other groups, depending on an agreed set of priorities.

    There are and will have been various sophisticated statistical models developed by epidemiologists and public health professionals and appropriate preparations can be made to establish sufficient stocks in advance and procedures for replacing stocks and, if necessary, increasing supply. It remains to be seen how well these things were done.

    However, ultimately, these are POLITICAL decisions, which have to take into account other factors, including the economy.

    For those who have to manage the testing regime on the ground in real time, they have to do the best they can in the circumstances and so, using a targeted approach is the least worst option.

    If people like the PM and Mr Hancock had not been setting fatuous and unachievable targets for the sake of very short term gain with a partisan media, then the general public would have a better appreciation of what the situation actually was and, while they might well be very angry, they would show the kind of resilience which most of us do when we have to make the best of the situation.

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  2. Alan Wilson the President of the society of Bio-Medical Science just spelt out very clearly that the Scot Gov and Prof Jason Leitch have got their target of 3500 tests per day just about right and that England’s politically driven target of 100,000 tests per day is chaotic and meaningless. Mr. Wilson went on to spell out that what England needs is a policy then to determine the number of daily tests required by the plan.

    This is just a summary of what Alan Wilson said, he was strongly positive on the actions of the Scot. Gov. and Prof. Leitch and scathing of the UK’s actions in England.

    I’d be surprised if the state broadcaster has Alan Wilson back on air again.

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  3. Brian Taylor just claimed the FM had said traffic on Scotland’s roads was up by 10% . . . I thought I heard the FM say it was up by 5%

    Following 2nd hand:- Kilgour care home owner claimed that on Sunday the Health Secretary said that 5 Army testing units Would go round care homes in Scotland testing for Covid-19 going up to 8 soon after . Kilgour then went on to say that by Monday Jeanne Freeman had changed her mind and that none of this was going to happen .
    I listened to Monday’s Covid-19 briefing and Jeanne Freeman certainly didn’t say the army test units were being cancelled in any way

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  5. Would you want to have a heart operation performed by an orthopaedic surgeon who retired 17 years ago? I thought not. In that case why are we taking advice on a virus pandemic from a bacteriologist/microbiologist who retired 17 years ago?

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  6. “Imperfect no doubt, but is the Scottish Government’s wider strategy of prioritising the testing of key-workers, distancing and a strict lock-down followed by very careful adjustments, turning out to be not-so-daft after all?”

    No. My wife and I had it. She was confirmed as such when she was directed by 111 to RAH Paisley, but without a test. Testing has proved hugely successful elsewhere, and stands us in great stead for future similar emergencies.

    We are SNP members but the Scottish government is doing as well on Covid-19 as they are doing in Scottish education. Time for a changing of the guard, especially after the Salmond show trial.

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    1. The many posts here telling the truth about Scottish education. You can click on and read again if you’ve forgotten or if the title is isn’t enough:

      https://www.tes.com/news/its-guff-scottish-education-terrible

      Attainment for Scotland’s school leavers far greater than in England

      Attainment gap widens in England as it HALVES in Scotland, but Sarah Smith lies again

      BBC Scotland and Herald mislead you as exam pass rates rise again

      Why Scotland’s supposed decline in School Science performance according to Pisa is really a good sign

      Standing up for Scottish education as our media parrot Tory myths

      Scots more likely to enter Higher Education than those in non-Scottish parts

      Growing calls to allow ‘SNP’ education policy to be implemented and for pupils to be allowed to learn

      Scottish school-leavers record highest rate of positive destinations ever

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