When we saw the dramatic surge in cases of coronavirus in 1st April, up from 179 to 430, many of us feared the worst. I did.

Then when it fell for the next two days, I hoped. Then when it went up and down for four days, I wasn’t sure what to think.

Drawing the graph helped to suggest that April 1st was a peak but the trend isn’t that clear based on just how it looks.

However, when you group the data in blocks of 3 or 4 days and generate daily averages you get something more explicit. Starting today and working back to the 1st, we get:

884 in last 3 days

Average: 295

1 035 in previous 3

Average: 345

or

1 228 in last 4 days

Average: 307

1438 in previous 4

Average: 359

The coronavirus outbreak is under control as long as we keep the lockdown?