National clinical director Jason Leitch, today:
“The Chief Scientific Adviser in England has said he thinks 20,000 deaths across the UK would be a good outcome. In Scotland, that would be about 2,000, but the worst-case scenario is much worse than that. People need to take the advice they’re being given very seriously.”
Scotland is neither 10 % of the UK nor is it any simple percentage of it.
First, Scotland’s population is only 8% of the UK so even if we accept the premise, that would be 1 600 deaths.
Second, it is already clear that NHS Scotland is saving near to three times as many, per capita, of infected patients. Last night it was a mortality rate of 19 per 1 000 compared to 49 per 1 000 for the UK. So, now are we looking at 533 deaths?
But, with only 7 so far and 233 across the UK, 33 times as many, is the prediction of 533 not a bit OTT?
There’s one way to keep the figure down. Close the border.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
I tend to be an optimist. I hope I’m not tempting fate but I have a strong feeling, based on history, that,when we look back, NHS Scotland will be shown to be one of the best in the world.
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From the interview on broadcasting Scotland, Professor Pollock has said that this dire warning of the number of deaths is based on flawed modelling, without taking into consideration any public health measures – so if the government does nothing (which seemed to be their original ‘plan’) it could be that high. If the governments do as WHO is advising, it won’t be anywhere near. I have no idea why Jason Leitch is saying this panicky ill-advised thing – it’s up to the government(s) to put measures in place, and for him to communicate those plans, surely?
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I think Professor Pollock was also saying that the spread of the virus is now less in Scotland than in England. That might imply that the number of deaths in Scotland could yet increase markedly. That is unless the Scottish government stops following the UK government and follows WHO guidance and Professor Pollock’s direct advice to start testing of all with possible symptoms and, if necessary identifying their contacts.
It seems likely that I may have the covid virus. The painter who re-painted our tenement stair came down with flu symptoms a short time after the job. A week later I became ill and am still unwell. I learn today that for two weeks the Air BnB below us had a guest from Madrid here. I shook his hand when he arrived.He went away last week.
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Ugh. I’m sorry to hear you are unwell Sam – do you have enough paracetamol and other supplies?
It was very interesting to hear Prof Pollock talking about the ways public health and infectious diseases experts control an epidemic, tracing all contacts and maintaining quarantine and observation (in the absence of extensive testing). I agree the Scottish gov’t needs to step up and follow WHO guidance instead of following uk non-guidance, the responses have all been a bit weak.
Take care and I hope you recover soon. You’ll be immune in the short term, by all accounts, afterwards and can go anywhere without risk if spreading it to others ,,, of only we had testing to know everyone that has actually had it!
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I hope that the decline in numbers of new cases continues. Two things that may change the headline number is an increase in testing and the number of people in camper vans that have suddenly appeared, certainly around us and other parts of the highlands. Campervan hire people have been actively promoting campervans as a means of self isolating. Similar story in Wales, possibly worse being close to Midlands and Birmingham, although I’ve heard some locals have setup road blocks. Road blocks now there is an idea for Gretna and Carter Bar.
As you can testify Sam, it could take a week or so to show up.
A speedy and complete recovery Sam.
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I think you are comparing apples and oranges.
NHS England had decided (against WHO advice) on 13th March to stop testing people and tell them to isolate for 7 days. They were not even testing front line workers with symptoms.
So their mortality rate compared to a country which is testing people with symptoms will be falsely elevated. When the ICU beds are full, mortality will rise as there will be insufficient capacity to cope with new patients.
With 40 to 80% of the population infected (enhanced by delayed implementation of social distancing) and a mortality rate of 4% that’s still an awful lot of deaths.
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Nope. Comparing published numbers dying with published numbers diagnosed and admitted.
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Different admission criteria. No hospital beds in England & corridor nursing well before Covid-19 turned up. My local DGH had stopped elective non cancer surgery which required an overnight stay since November for a projected 5 months minimum.
Sick people who phone NHS 111 told to stay at home.
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Would it be possible to use thermal imaging cameras to mass screen for elevated temperatures?
Mounted to monitor streets or entrances to supermarkets —then contact tracing.
Boris is now starting to panic—Scotland should cut him loose and concentrate on WHO rules.
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Dr Rae
Yes but what does anyone do but use published data?
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You need to ask if the data is comparable.
For example not all countries are registering deaths as due to the virus but rather caused by an underlying condition with the viral infection as a contributory factor. I think Germany may be doing this.
Once England and Scotland (if they do) adopt the WHO instruction to test everyone with symptoms and then trace contacts, we can use the data to compare mortality.
It would also be worth looking at the Intensive Care beds (with a ventilator so categorised as Level 3) per head of population in the various regions of Scotland and England before they increased capacity for the virus.
As Clydebuilt points out when the capacity is exceeded, the mortality rate will unfortunately rise. The number of beds available will be relevant then.
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Just for comparison, I was in Skype contact with my son in Nova Scotia this morning and he told me the Canadian authorities say any one crossing from one province to another must quaranteen themselve for 14 days and it is possible that all inter-provincial movement could be banned.
As he has a daughter in Ontario and a son in Newfoundland, it’s hard on them but people there comply with the rules as they appreciate the reasons.
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London and Birmingham should be locked down and quarantined.
You really do have to question Boris Johnson’s intentions.
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London and Birmingham should be locked down and quarantined.
You really do have to question Boris Johnson’s intentions.
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As we are being told the UK is 3 weeks (now 2 weeks) behind italy, i reckon Scotland is a short period behind England. Between a few days to 1 week. So Englands icu beds have ran out of capacity to treat new cases, therefore their death rate is ramping up. Scotlands facilities aren’t stretched beyond their limit yet so people are being treated, giving a much lower death rate than England has currently. As the days progress our intensive care facilities will be overloaded and our death rate will increase. Hopefully not to the carnage levels I envisage in poor old England.
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The first time I heard Jason Leitch speak, I thought, oh my God, here’s a man suppin on his 15 minutes of fame.
Then I thought of, ‘I’m a celebrity get him out of here’.
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