National clinical director Jason Leitch, today: 

“The Chief Scientific Adviser in England has said he thinks 20,000 deaths across the UK would be a good outcome. In Scotland, that would be about 2,000, but the worst-case scenario is much worse than that. People need to take the advice they’re being given very seriously.”

Scotland is neither 10 % of the UK nor is it any simple percentage of it.

First, Scotland’s population is only 8% of the UK so even if we accept the premise, that would be 1 600 deaths.

Second, it is already clear that NHS Scotland is saving near to three times as many, per capita, of infected patients. Last night it was a mortality rate of 19 per 1 000 compared to 49 per 1 000 for the UK. So, now are we looking at 533 deaths?

But, with only 7 so far and 233 across the UK, 33 times as many, is the prediction of 533 not a bit OTT?

There’s one way to keep the figure down. Close the border.