In the Herald today:
‘Scotland’s employers are facing a 25 per cent hike in the total business rates burden in just three years, according to official forecasts. The scale of the increase emerged on the eve of today’s final Holyrood vote on the Scottish budget for 2020/21.’
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18281677.storm-scottish-firms-face-paying-674m-tax/
Absent from the Herald, of course was the SNP Small Business Bonus Scheme:
- The total overall savings to businesses as a result of the Small Business Bonus Scheme covering the period 2008-09 – 2018-19 are £1.79 billion. The estimated savings for 2019-20 will add a further £272 million.
- 120,420 properties received Small Business Bonus Scheme relief, compared to 64,180 properties in 2008.
- 111,040 properties received 100% relief through the Small Business Bonus Scheme.
Click to access WA20191209.pdf
More on businesses thriving:
https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2019/11/07/number-of-scottish-businesses-at-record-high/
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Hi John,I wonder if you have noticed that Daily Mail reporters get on to politic shows in Scotland Rachel Watson never seems to be off,it just made me wonder now that we have a few SNP MSPs leaving at the next election will they be invited on to the shows to give there view,I doubt it very much,what do you think.
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Brewer’s Babes? Not too challenging?
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I like that,must start counting how many Babes he has on from now.
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The Herald also tried to gloss over the fact that this is a FORECAST covering the next three years not the 3 years past. Any such forecast must now come with huge caveats because of the Coronavirus and how it will impact businesses.
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… and FORECASTs are always reported as a range, but, the HERROD has chosen the most extreme part of the range.
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I think this is just for ‘anoraks’.
Leaving aside any (legitimate) comparative assessment of Non Domestic Rates (NDR) and associated reliefs in Scotland relative to the rUK, The Herald article and the Tory politicians it quotes rather ‘under-report’ the nature of what the Scottish Fiscal Commission has written about NDR.
Source: https://www.fiscalcommission.scot/forecasts/
Here are some especially relevant bits from the Commission’s report:
Para 4.30: “Our forecast for NDR is subject to several uncertainties.”
Para 4.23: “Revenues from Non-Domestic Rates are forecast to increase by £841 million from 2020-21 to 2024-25. The forecast reflects NEW DATA and REVISED JUDGEMENTS as well as a number of policies introduced in the Non-Domestic Rates (Scotland) Bill,49 and an additional policy introduced in the Scottish Budget 2020-21.” (my emphasis) So, by no means is the change in revenue just down to policy change.
On specific factors influencing the forecasts:
Para 4.25: “There are three main changes to our pre-measures forecast since December 2018. The first is our forecast for appeals losses. … Our new approach lowers the NDR income forecast by £15 million in 2020-21.”
So there is a new, lower base value due to a change in ‘approach’! Other changes relate to the Commission having more up to date audited local authority returns, mid-year estimates from local authorities and updated data on appeals losses.
There is then this on a change in Scottish Government policy to assist businesses:
Para 4.29. “The Scottish Government will introduce an Intermediate Property Rate (IPR) as of 1 April 2020. While properties with an RV above £95,000 will continue to be charged the Higher Property Rate (HPR) of 2.6p on top of the Basic Property Rate (also known as poundage), properties with an RV between £51,000 and £95,000 will instead be charged 1.3p on top of the standard poundage. The effect of this policy is to REDUCE NDR income by £7 million in 2020-21.”
And on the significance of appeals by businesses against valuations:
Para 41: “Our NDR forecast is for £2.7 billion in 2020-21, down from £2.8 billion in 2019-20. The fall is mainly because of the timing of losses from revaluation appeals.”
So the Commission’s figures are forecasts; they are associated with various uncertainties; they are affected by recent technical changes in how the Commission has addressed its NDR forecasting; it is influenced by the NDR appeals process, including timings; and it is influenced by changes in SG policy, including a new Intermediate Property Rate which will REDUCE the burden of businesses by £7m this coming financial year.
And for any sceptics, the impact of appeal procedures on revenue can be substantial. See this from local authorities in England.
Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870112/NNDR1_2020-21_Stats_release_revision.pdf
“… authorities are required to make an estimate of how much income they will forego as a result of changes to rating lists, including appeals by businesses against their valuations. This includes both income not collected in year and also refunds they have to make in respect of previous years. …. Local authority estimates of the addition to the appeals provision is £927 million in 2020-21. This is £127m less than the 2019-20 forecast.”
Interestingly, the same source for England notes that: “Local authorities estimate the non-domestic rating income for 2020-21 will be £25.6 billion, an increase of £649 million, or 2.6%, on the figure for 2019-20.”
According to the Scottish Fiscal Commission on which The Herald and the Scottish Tories are happy to rely, its NDR revenue forecast for 2020/21 (£2,749 million) is £57 million (or 2%) LOWER than the previous year (£2,806 million).
Isn’t selective ‘sight’ an amazing gift!
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So, Scottish businesses to be taxed far less harshly than English ones?
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On Thu 5 Mar 2020 at 11:37, Talking-Up Scotland Collective wrote:
> johnrobertson834 posted: ” In the Herald today: ‘Scotland’s employers are > facing a 25 per cent hike in the total business rates burden in just three > years, according to official forecasts. The scale of the increase emerged > on the eve of today’s final Holyrood vote on the Sc” >
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