Researchers find UK Government’s austerity policies ‘murders’ 335 000 across the UK and inadvertently reveal SNP mitigation saved more than 8 000 lives

Professor John Robertson OBA I’ve already recommended the excellent, highly researched, ‘Social Murder? Austerity and Life Expectancy in the UK’ by David Walsh and Gerry McCartney (U of Glasgow), Policy Press. In the opening pages, they justify the term ‘social murder‘ for the fatal consequences of economic violence against the disabled and the poor. They estimate the level of social murder by comparing the observed mortality rates in the UK from 2012-2019 with the rate that should have emerged in those years if the prior improving trend in life expectancy had continued, uninterrupted as it did in other parts of Europe not … Continue reading Researchers find UK Government’s austerity policies ‘murders’ 335 000 across the UK and inadvertently reveal SNP mitigation saved more than 8 000 lives

Might the Sunday Times Holyrood/Independence poll result today have been even better had they not weighted the sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in the 2014 referendum vote?

In 2014, voters aged 16-41 were more likely than not to vote Yes whereas voters above 41 were more likely to vote No. More than ten years later, half a million predominantly No voters have passed away leaving the electoral roll and a similar amount of predominantly Yes have joined it. Despite this many pollsters for Scottish elections tend to adjust, ‘weight’, their sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in 2014. Critics suggest this skews the results and point to the Yes leads and better SNP figures in those polls which do not do so. Norstat for the Sunday … Continue reading Might the Sunday Times Holyrood/Independence poll result today have been even better had they not weighted the sample to match the 55/45 No/Yes ratio in the 2014 referendum vote?

As the fight for Scotland in May 2026 looms where are Wings Off Scotland and Scot Goes Poop?

Back in 2014, the Wings Over Scotland and Scot Goes Pop blogs played a big part in the campaign that, in the end, pushed the Union to the brink. I often praised and shared their work. Only 10 years later, all seems lost. Wings today has a cartoon of John Swinney in a dress, some poll analysis more interested in Reform than anything else, two anxious wee pieces on what it means to be a woman and a swipe at Kezia Dugdale who, you may remember years ago, accused the author of homophobia. That’s quite a long grudge there though, … Continue reading As the fight for Scotland in May 2026 looms where are Wings Off Scotland and Scot Goes Poop?

Two sub-polls in December now saying same thing – SNP pulling away from Labour with 18% and 15% leads

Two days ago, I noted: From Find Out Now on 4 December 2024, the UK figures put Labour in third place with 23%, behind Reform at 24% and the Cons at 26%. The Scottish sub-set of only 118, has SNPv39%, Labour 21%, Cons 13%, Reform, Greens and Lib Dems at 8%. If repeated in May 2026, this could give SNP an overall majority. Early days I know but still good to get this kind of wee boost. https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/voting-intention-4th-dec-2024/ The above 18% lead is much larger than previous sub-polls and, more so, than in ‘full’ Scottish polls. However, the latter, while having … Continue reading Two sub-polls in December now saying same thing – SNP pulling away from Labour with 18% and 15% leads

Glenn Campbell and the ‘significant underperformance in key public services like the NHS’ that does not survive a collision with the evidence

Professor John Robertson OBA Glenn Campbell’s opinion piece on the SNP, after its budget, is the lead story on its website today, titled: SNP rediscovers its political confidence with wily Budget Hah! We know what to expect and, within one line, we get: In the last couple of years its independence strategy has hit a brick wall, the party has tied itself in knots over gender reform, and it has fallen in and out of love with the Scottish Greens. There have been three first ministers during that period and one of those remains under police investigation as the Branchform … Continue reading Glenn Campbell and the ‘significant underperformance in key public services like the NHS’ that does not survive a collision with the evidence

Cap on UK political donations to limit foreign influence would help SNP limit ‘foreign’ influence too

From the Guardian today: Caps on political donations are being considered by ministers as part of sweeping reforms to the UK electoral system. Labour is examining proposals to limit how much individuals and companies can donate to political parties as part of an effort to tighten the rules around money in UK politics. In a report to be published in the coming weeks, the Institute for Public Policy Research will recommend that ministers limit individual and corporate donations to political parties to £100,000 a year. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/02/government-may-cap-uk-political-donations-to-limit-foreign-influence If implemented, the above move would be driven by Labour, Con and Lib Dem anxiety … Continue reading Cap on UK political donations to limit foreign influence would help SNP limit ‘foreign’ influence too

Six sub-polls suggest modest SNP recovery, growing Reform threat and ongoing crisis for the others leading to good result in the constituencies for the SNP

From Opinium with sub-polls of around 160 Scots 18+years of age, on 29 and 13 (in brackets) November, 31 and 18 October (in brackets) support is (was): This suggests ongoing crises for Scottish Labour and Cons, LD and Greens with steady modest recovery of the SNP and growing support for Reform eating away at Cons and Labour. Polls a few days earlier by More in Common and Find our Now tell a similar, if worse story for Labour and slightly better one for the Cons. All six polls put the Greens in danger of serious loss post their split with … Continue reading Six sub-polls suggest modest SNP recovery, growing Reform threat and ongoing crisis for the others leading to good result in the constituencies for the SNP

Even with the predicted council tax increase Scots will still pay far less than in other parts of UK as they have done for the last 17 years

In July 2024, from the Scottish Government: Council Tax rates are regularly quoted as being lower in Scotland than in England. However, does a simple numerical comparison tell you everything you need to know? At face value, the official statistics show that the average Council Tax bill per dwelling in Scotland is over £350 per year lower. 1 The full report does go on to explain why direct comparisons are problematic but you can be sure that were this the other way round, MSM would not hesitate to shout: SNP Council Tax bills £350 higher! In November 2023, from Policy Mogul, … Continue reading Even with the predicted council tax increase Scots will still pay far less than in other parts of UK as they have done for the last 17 years

Labour should rethink this one, and give money directly to the devolved Scottish Government for them to allocate to Scottish councils

Anonymous The National (England) Audit Office stated yesterday that “Just one in 10 local authorities submitted reliable formal accounts of their spending in 2022-23. Of the remaining 90%, half failed to submit any financial data at all and half submitted accounts that had not been audited“ Remember Labour’s big plan for Scotland is to bypass the Scottish government and allow Ian Murray, as Labour’s new SOS for Scotland ,to allocate funds directly to Scottish councils so hopefully they, the Scottish councils, are more diligent and careful with their accounting. This BTW is a carbon copy of what the Tories were going to do … Continue reading Labour should rethink this one, and give money directly to the devolved Scottish Government for them to allocate to Scottish councils

Scotland to take no lessons from Labour on saving lives by cutting smoking

By Professor John Robertson, OBA In the Herald, today: The Secretary of State for Scotland has said UK Government proposals to gradually increase the age at which people can buy tobacco “will save lives” in Scotland.  Speaking ahead of the Tobacco and Vapes bill being debated at Westminster tomorrow, Ian Murray said the plans offer a chance to show how a “reset in relationships” between the UK and Scottish Governments can make a difference to peoples lives in Scotland.  https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24746978.tobacco-restriction-plans-will-save-lives-scotland/ Not being mentioned, of course: From The Scottish Health Survey 2023 – volume 1: main report, published today, the above graph reveals a marked … Continue reading Scotland to take no lessons from Labour on saving lives by cutting smoking