In the Herald education supplement today, the above, from a fee-paying school head, is titled – Alarm as Oxbridge places for Scots fall’

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Thanks to Ian McAnulla for alerting us to this:

In the New York-owned Herald today, the above and:

While it may be no surprise that success rates are higher in England, more important would be any change in the rate over time. The same analysis notes that in 2016 the combined Oxbridge offer rate for Scottish applicants was 18.4% and the acceptance rate 15.2%; both have fallen by around five percentage points. Applications from Scotland have risen over that period (from under 500 a year to around 800), so the drop is in conversion rather than in the number of people applying.

This is statistically significant and warrants investigation for some. Not only have acceptances fallen but they have done so against increased applications.

According to the Herald, commentators point to curriculum divergence (Scotland’s Curriculum for Excellence versus England’s more knowledge-rich National Curriculum), reduced availability of Advanced Highers, and weaker preparation for Oxbridge-style admissions tests and interviews as contributing factors. It’s difficult to question this interpretation but more important by far, for me is the question why should we care?

The historical dominance of Oxbridge graduates across the institutions of the UK and in Scotland, is not to be encouraged but fought against. If fewer young Scots are entering Oxbridge, then good!

I’m more concerned about this:

Oxbridge’s outsized role in Britain’s elite pipelines concentrates opportunity among people who already start with advantages, and that pattern has been slow to change. Only about 7% of the population attend private schools, yet they remain heavily over-represented at Oxford and Cambridge and even more so in later elite jobs. Offer rates among applicants are still higher for private-school pupils than for state-school applicants at Oxford. A handful of schools continue to supply a disproportionate slice of places. Regional imbalance is large: London and the South East dominate applications and admissions.https://elitistbritain.suttontrust.com/

Downstream, Oxbridge still feeds power. Sutton Trust Elitist Britain Work (2019 and 2025) finds people in top roles are about 21 times more likely than the general population to have gone to Oxford or Cambridge. The private-school-to-Oxbridge pathway remains the single strongest route into the elite; those who take it are estimated to be around 38 times more likely than average to reach those positions. Senior judges, permanent secretaries, many FTSE chairs, newspaper columnists and a large share of cabinet ministers over decades have been Oxbridge-heavy. That has barely shifted in six years even as cabinets change. IFS analysis has also ranked Oxbridge poorly on overall social-mobility contribution precisely because they admit so few disadvantaged students. https://www.suttontrust.com/our-research/elitist-britain-2025/

Who is that 'leading academic?' Eh, wait, oh yeah, that guy the BBC complained about - Professor John Robertson, Former Teacher Education Associate Dean for Quality Assurance, Faculty Chair for Research Ethics, PhD supervisor, Education Lecturer, School Teacher. WTF does he know?

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