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JOHN WATSON ROBERTSON

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Scotland on Sunday today, desperately trying to upset your breakfast with the above claim, is all wrong.

Why? It reports, gutter-low in informative value, telling viewers little they might use to understand and to act logically within the actual society they live in rather than an imagined drama where violence lurks at ever corner and on every day.

What would any decent, intelligent service tell them?

First, that ‘recidivism’, re-offending:

The return-to-custody rate [not just re-offending but also breaching licence conditions] for the early 2025 tranche was only 5%. This was based on a Scotsman newspaper report¹ as official data are not yet published.

The kinds of re-offending breakdown is not yet available from the 2025 tranche but for the late 2024 group of 477, 20 did commit ‘crimes of violence.’² Remember sex and/or domestic violence offenders are not released early.

Direct comparison with England is difficult but the re-offending rate there seems to be between 26% and 38% ³ perhaps the reflecting the better staffing ratios in Scotland and the opportunities that offers for rehabilitation:

Sources:

1. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/one-in-eight-prisoners-released-early-in-scotland-expected-to-end-up-back-behind-bars-5396659
2. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13917623/Dozens-thugs-freed-strike-soft-touch-SNP-scheme-tackle-prison-overcrowding.html
3. https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-09-02/HL610/

Second, probation officers:

The prisoner-to-prison officer ratio in England, is approximately 3.7:1 as of mid-2025: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2023/prisons

In Scotland, it’s 1.7:1, thus more than twice as well-staffed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7rv9yx0x9o

Click to access SPS_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2024-25.pdf

___________________________________________________________

Help Talking-up Scotland keep going.

Crowdfunder at: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/help-talking-up-scotland-keep-going

Or by direct bank transfer to:

JOHN WATSON ROBERTSON

Sort Code – 08-91-04

Account – 12266421

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