No images of the traumatised here, just the facts.

BBC Scotland today, headlining:

A woman who was raped by a stranger has asked politicians to think of victims and abandon plans for the early release of hundreds of criminals. Katie Johnston’s attacker Alasdair McDonald was branded a “faceless, violent and predatory rapist” by the judge who jailed him for 10 years. Under proposals from the Scottish government, long-term prisoners like McDonald would be freed automatically after completing two-thirds of their sentence. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgq5pd3pwdjo

As always these last 12 or more years, BBC Scotland reports, gutter-low in informative value, telling viewers little they might use to understand and to act logically within the actual society they live in rather than an imagined drama where violence lurks at ever corner and on every day.

What would any decent, intelligent service tell them?

First, that ‘recidivism’, re-offending:

The return-to-custody rate [not just re-offending but also breaching licence conditions] for the early 2025 tranche was only 5%. This was based on a Scotsman newspaper report¹ as official data are not yet published.

The kinds of re-offending breakdown is not yet available from the 2025 tranche but for the late 2024 group of 477, 20 did commit ‘crimes of violence.’² Remember sex and/or domestic violence offenders are not released early.

Direct comparison with England is difficult but the re-offending rate there seems to be between 26% and 38% ³ perhaps the reflecting the better staffing ratios in Scotland and the opportunities that offers for rehabilitation:

Sources:

1. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/one-in-eight-prisoners-released-early-in-scotland-expected-to-end-up-back-behind-bars-5396659
2. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13917623/Dozens-thugs-freed-strike-soft-touch-SNP-scheme-tackle-prison-overcrowding.html
3. https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-09-02/HL610/

The prisoner-to-prison officer ratio in England, is approximately 3.7:1 as of mid-2025: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2023/prisons

In Scotland, it’s 1.7:1, thus more than twice as well-staffed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7rv9yx0x9o

Click to access SPS_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2024-25.pdf

Second, the ‘policing having to be there?‘

From Statistics on policing published in May 2026:

There were 16,430 full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers in Scotland on 31 March 2026. This was 196 (+1.2%) more officers compared to the position on 31 March 2007.

As staffing levels have been maintained how has the level of crime faced by these officers changed?

• Total recorded crime in Scotland was about 419,257 in 2006/07. By the year ending December 2025 it was 308,532, down 26% https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com.
• Violent crime peaked around the mid-2000s. Official Scottish Government analysis says violent crime in 2024/25 remained 23% below the 2006/07 peak. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Homicides have dropped dramatically. Scotland had 159 homicides in 2006/07 versus around 45–47 recently — among the lowest levels recorded in decades. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Compared with England?

Scotland has the highest ratio of police officers per 100 000 population – 295.

England and Wales forces have a lower combined ratio 235–241.

This means Scotland has roughly 25–27% more officers per capita than the England/Wales average.

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2025/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2025
2. https://policepromotion.blog/2024/07/30/police-workforce-2024-part-1-officer-numbers-across-uk-and-ireland

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