In their long-running report on the early release of the killers of PC Andrew Harper and that on a hit-and-run driver (below), there’s not one mention of rehabilitation, probation or of recidivism by BBC UK.

BBC Scotland have not even linked to these stories.

What don’t they tell us?

First, ‘recidivism’, re-offending is 5 to 6 times more prevalent in England than in Scotland:

The return-to-custody rate [not just re-offending but also breaching licence conditions] for the early 2025 tranche was only 5%. This was based on a Scotsman newspaper report¹ as official data are not yet published.

The kinds of re-offending breakdown is not yet available from the 2025 tranche but for the late 2024 group of 477, 20 did commit ‘crimes of violence.’² Remember sex and/or domestic violence offenders are not released early.

Direct comparison with England is difficult but the re-offending rate there seems to be between 26% and 38% ³ perhaps the reflecting the better staffing ratios in Scotland and the opportunities that offers for rehabilitation:

Sources:

1. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/one-in-eight-prisoners-released-early-in-scotland-expected-to-end-up-back-behind-bars-5396659
2. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13917623/Dozens-thugs-freed-strike-soft-touch-SNP-scheme-tackle-prison-overcrowding.html
3. https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-09-02/HL610/

The prisoner-to-prison officer ratio in England, is approximately 3.7:1 as of mid-2025: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2023/prisons

In Scotland, it’s 1.7:1, thus more than twice as well-staffed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7rv9yx0x9o

Click to access SPS_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2024-25.pdf

Second, Scotland has 27% more police officers per head:

From Statistics on policing published in May 2026:

There were 16,430 full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers in Scotland on 31 March 2026. This was 196 (+1.2%) more officers compared to the position on 31 March 2007.

As staffing levels have been maintained how has the level of crime faced by these officers changed?

• Total recorded crime in Scotland was about 419,257 in 2006/07. By the year ending December 2025 it was 308,532, down 26% https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com.
• Violent crime peaked around the mid-2000s. Official Scottish Government analysis says violent crime in 2024/25 remained 23% below the 2006/07 peak. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Homicides have dropped dramatically. Scotland had 159 homicides in 2006/07 versus around 45–47 recently — among the lowest levels recorded in decades. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Compared with England?

Scotland has the highest ratio of police officers per 100 000 population – 295.

England and Wales forces have a lower combined ratio 235–241.

This means Scotland has roughly 25–27% more officers per capita than the England/Wales average.

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2025/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2025
2. https://policepromotion.blog/2024/07/30/police-workforce-2024-part-1-officer-numbers-across-uk-and-ireland

Third, Scotland has twice as many probation officers to help reduce re-offending

There are currently 5 576 ‘band 4’ probation officers in England.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hm-prison-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-september-2025/hm-prison-and-probation-service-workforce-quarterly-september-2025

Scotland does not have “probation officers” as a distinct role. The equivalent is Justice Social Workers (also called criminal justice social workers), who are qualified social workers employed mainly by the 32 local authorities.

Per head of population, you might expect that Scotland would have around 560 of these but has 1 174 up from 950 the year before.

https://www.communitycare.co.uk/content/news/social-worker-numbers-increase-in-scottish-councils

Scotland has twice as many!

A second factor is access to social housing.

Social housing is more prevalent in Scotland than England, comprising 23% of all Scottish housing stock (11% RSLs / 12% Local Authorities), compared to 16.4% in England (10.1% RPs / 6.3% Local Authorities).