‘The Multiplier Effect’ – Stunning US study in 2025 made clear the enormous wider benefits of building the Glen Sannox and the Glen Rosa ferries on the Clyde and points confidently to a future there

From the Washington State, USA, based Lynwood Times 28 May 2025

A new independent study by Pennsylvania-based Martin Associates confirms the economic value of building the new Washington State Ferries hybrid fleet in-state, showing that each ferry constructed in the state would generate 1,298 jobs and $31.9 million in state and local taxes.

Washington State Ferries, which operates the largest ferry system in the nation, solicited bids this spring to build five new hybrid ferries over a six- to eight-year period with a budget of $1.3 billion. The new hybrid electric ferries have 160-car capacity to support growing rider demand and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Puget Sound.

According to the study, for each of the five newferry boats constructed in Washington state:

  • 1,298 local jobs would be created, directly and indirectly
  • $131.1 million in wages and salaries would be paid to Washington families
  • $338 million in revenue would be generated for Washington businesses
  • $50 million of purchases of materials and services supplied by Washington businesses
  • $31.9 million in state and local taxes would stay in Washington

Each ferry will cost more than $325 million to build and take approximately three years to construct. Of the 1,298 jobs, 577 jobs will directly be created by keeping ferry construction in-state and the prevailing wage workers will average $104,000 in annual wages and salaries. This is higher than the statewide average salary of $81,550, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Given the above analysis the MV Glen Sannox final cost of around £300 million must surely have had comparable benefits to those listed above.

You may wonder how $325 million government investment in a ferry can generate a greater amount in the economy. I’m no economist but I’ve heard of a multiplier effect. That’s what is expected in Washington State. There is no reason to think it has not already happened in Scotland, due to the Glen Sannox project and continues to do so due to the Glen Rosa.

The Multiplier Effect Explained:

The multiplier effect is one of the most important concepts you can use when applying, analysing and evaluating the effects of changes in government spending and taxation. It is also good to use when analysing changes in exports and investment on wider macroeconomic objectives.

The multiplier effect occurs when an initial injection into the circular flow causes a bigger final increase in real national income. This injection of demand might come for example from a rise in exports, investment or government spending.

The multiplier coefficient itself is found by:

Final change in real GDP / Initial change in AD

Example: If the government increased spending by £5 billion but this caused real GDP to increase by a total of £12 billion, then the multiplier would have a value of 12/5 = 2.4

The multiplier effect arises because one agent’s spending is another agent’s income. When a spending project creates new jobs for example, this creates extra injections of income and demand into a country’s circular flow.

There’s video at the link: https://www.tutor2u.net/economics/reference/multiplier-effect


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8 thoughts on “‘The Multiplier Effect’ – Stunning US study in 2025 made clear the enormous wider benefits of building the Glen Sannox and the Glen Rosa ferries on the Clyde and points confidently to a future there

  1. Hi John,First let me say I like your videos,going a bit O/T now.

    The Great British Energy Act 2025 received royal assent on 15 May 2025. 

    After more than a year this is how it looks now.

    https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4534032/great-british-energy-invests-75m-naked-energy

    Great British Energy employs a total workforce of around 130 people, which includes just 30 permanent staff members alongside temporary civil servants, secondees, and contingent labour

    What has been the benefit to Scotland sofar ?

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Thanks re videos. My daughter says amateur equals authentic of tiktok.

      I don’t get interrupted by weans or cats but twice my coffee machine has decided to wake up and wash itself during the few seconds I’m live.

      I’ll get on the GBE thing later

      John

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Would be interesting to find out how much was generated for the local economy by the delayed Glen Sannox and Glen Rosa ferries considering the large over-run.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. … how much was generated for the local economy by the delayed Glen Sannox and Glen Rosa ferries considering the large over-run.’

      Tricky I suspect to estimate, especially without access to detailed supplier information (e.g. on nature/scale of local procurement) and business insights (e.g. on likelihood of follow-on new contracts for the shipyard during the period of delay)!

      Both in terms of local supply chain impact and employment impact – including the direct and indirect local multipliers for both – one would need to discount any calculated gross value generated for the local economy over the period of delay for what would have happened anyway without the delayed completions i.e. to calculate net additional economic impact locally.

      Without delays to ferry completions, would the yard have secured further work of similar or greater value and impact? And what discount for management’s ‘optimism bias’ would an objective evaluator apply regarding postulated new contracts?

      Moreover, whilst delays may not have altered what and how much ‘product’ was procured from the yard’s supply chain, uncertainties and delays may have negatively impacted some suppliers’ business performance. Some external service providers engaged for longer due to delayed completions MAY have seen more business positives: if so were these local business or employing Inverclyde residents?

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Scottish Government Input-Output tables (and Scotland’s Marine Economic Statistics) and Fraser of Allender Institute reports both attempt to estimate multipliers by industrial sector.

    The aggregate output and employment multipliers for shipbuilding are quite low (more than 1, but less than 2) because of high import/overseas content in materials and other resources.

    Liked by 3 people

  4. Ferries will save £Billions on fuel. 30 year life span. Spend a little to save a lot. Innovation. Can be sold on. New technology can benefit other areas. Adapt the use.
    Endless possibilities.

    Like

  5. The Turkish ferries were delayed. Supposed to be cheaper. Burning up fuel. For empty journeys. Subsidised by Scottish Gov. Essential services for the islands.

    100,000 islanders 40 ferries? 2500 people per ferry. Subsidised fares and flights. Some will never be travelling a lot. Generous service.

    Like

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