Boris Johnson’s government failed to anticipate and to react to pandemic threat but Nicola Sturgeon’s government made up for his incompetence

This from last year has popped up across social media, where it’s being seen in greater numbers than the Herald does, these days.

So, it needs rebutting.

First, How Boris Johnson’s top civil servant credited Nicola Sturgeon for showing them how to do it

Simon Case, Baron Case (born 27 December 1978) is a British civil servant who served as Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Home Civil Service from September 2020 to December 2024.
Case was Downing Street Permanent Secretary to Prime Minister Boris Johnson from May to September 2020.[

One more reason to be utterly disgusted by the current witch-hunt:

https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/documents/inq000303253-simon-cases-whatsapp-messages-with-helen-macnamara-dated-03-04-2020-to-19-05-2020/

From the National in May 2024:

NICOLA Sturgeon was showing the Tory government “how to do it” during the Covid pandemic, according to WhatsApp messages sent by the UK’s most senior civil servant. Simon Case, who as cabinet secretary oversees the work of the UK’s entire civil service, made the comments in April 2020 just weeks after the first lockdown, the UK Covid-19 Inquiry has heard.

Case was giving evidence to the inquiry on Thursday when the WhatsApps were revealed. In a conversation with former deputy cabinet secretary Helen MacNamara, Case lamented the state of the UK Government’s Covid response.

“It is awful,” Case – who at the time was a top adviser to Boris Johnson – wrote.

“This is how strategy advice is being developed – not a single expert involved in the conversation.”

He said it was an “appalling sight [if] you vaguely believe in evidence-based government.”

MacNamara said she was “really worried”, saying that the “last straw” for her had been when someone floated the idea of doing lockdown differently in some areas in order to secretly assess the strengths of different approaches. https://www.thenational.scot/news/24341858.simon-case-nicola-sturgeon-showed-tories-how-it-pandemic/

Second, how FM, Nicola Sturgeon, and the Scottish Government kept excess mortality here at one third lower than the UK average, saving thousands

I’m grateful to @amaccj for reminding me of this and for the link to the source.

When the final assessment is made, we need to set the scene with these facts:

  1. The World Health Organisation had pressed the panic button warning national governments to act on the 30th of January 2020.1
  2. Throughout February and March PM Johnson missed 5 Cobra meetings which discussed the need for a response.2 Pandemic response was still a reserved matter to the UK Government.
  3. In the first week of March, FM Sturgeon called for an immediate lockdown but PM Johnson refused in the interests of business.3
  4. PM Johnson reluctantly called the first UK lockdown on 23 March 2020.4
  5. The pandemic response strategy was devolved to Scotland on 25 March 2020. 5

Two years later, in February 2022, as the pandemic receded, the simple consequences in terms of mortality in different parts of the UK can be see in this table from the September 2023, UK Covid 19 Inquiry report6:

Other than the isolated South-west of England, Scotland had the lowest mortality rate of the 4 nations, even lower than Northern Ireland sheltered by its sea gap.

15% more died in Wales, suggesting a further 2 000 Scots might have died had their pandemic experience been managed by the Welsh Labour Government.

18% more died in England, suggesting a further 2 400 Scots might have died had their pandemic experience been managed by the UK Conservative Government.

How do we explain this? Faster and longer shutdowns; greater trust in FM Sturgeon’s guidance and consequent greater compliance with face masks and higher vaccination levels; quicker care home vaccinations after Health Secretary Freeman accelerated this, contrary to the UK strategy; more frequent care home inspections in the period prior to the pandemic?

Sources:

  1. https://www.who.int/news/item/27-04-2020-who-timeline—covid-19
  2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/michael-gove-fails-to-deny-pm-missed-five-coronavirus-cobra-meetings
  3. https://x.com/pjwoodside/status/1271449299721883649
  4. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-impact-of-covid-19-lockdowns-on-crime-demand-and-charge-volumes/the-impact-of-covid-19-lockdowns-on-crime-demand-and-charge-volumes-in-england-and-wales#:~:text=23%2F03%2F2020,buying%20food%20or%20medical%20reasons).
  5. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/coronavirus-act-2020
  6. https://t.co/vHHPbEUoY3

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5 thoughts on “Boris Johnson’s government failed to anticipate and to react to pandemic threat but Nicola Sturgeon’s government made up for his incompetence”

  1. I think this is solely due to the trust the Scottish public had in Nicola Sturgeon, Jeanne Freeman, Jason Leitch and Gregor Smith. Even Labour loyalists like neighbours of mine felt she and they were doing their best in a situation which was new to all of us.
    They could see the mendacious and incompetent Johnson in England and here were people who was addressing the public every day in straightforward language and then facing hostile and baleful and cavilling from our nasty media.

    The dilatory actions of the UK Government with crackpot ideas like ‘eat out to help out’ led to greater excess deaths in Scotland than would have been the case had Westminster responded more promptly, and closed the border with England. For being right, the attitude of Westminster and ‘Scottish’ unionists and media has been one of angry contempt.

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  4. The UK Covid-19 Inquiry has just published its latest report, on Module 5: Procurement. (see https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/09094028/E03444965_Covid-Inquiry-M5-Inquiry_Web-Accessible.pdf )

    The Inquiry’s overarching conclusions for this module focus on: (i) the UK’s unpreparedness in terms of personal protective equipment (PPE) and other clinical supplies for a pandemic, including below-target volumes and expired equipment in national pandemic stockpiles; and (ii) huge levels of waste amongst the PPE procured.

    A search of the document for references specific to ‘Scotland’ yields no especially or uniquely damning findings to ‘excite’ committed opponents of the SNP and the Scottish Government. Nevertheless, the search did throw up some references worthy of note.

    On liaison between UK government and devolved administrations over supply of PPE:

    From Para 2.100. ‘Despite this regular contact, … that there were also challenges in 2020 with accessing sufficient data about the UK government’s stocks of PPE, which initially impacted Scotland’s PPE procurement decisions. ‘

    In Wales, Andrew Slade (Director General, Economy, Skills and Natural Resources in the Welsh Government from January 2018 to April 2022 and Director General, Economy, Treasury and Constitution from April 2022 to March 2024) told the Inquiry that arrangements in England appeared to be “very fragmented” and there was “no assurance on how and when they would supply PPE to the four nations to replenish stock”. (my emphasis)

    ‘In Northern Ireland, Tim Losty (Director of International Relations in The Executive Office from 2012 to 2021) told the Inquiry that, at times, the UK government: “came across as disinterested in working with, or hearing the concerns of the Devolved Administrations and this was sometimes reflected in the attitudes of some UK officials”.

    ‘Although sharing of PPE between the four nations improved as the pandemic progressed, the devolved administrations procured the majority of their own.’

    On domestic supply chain development:

    Para 4.42. ‘Of 96 new PPE contracts awarded by NHS National Services Scotland during the pandemic, all of which were successfully delivered, three contracts went to new Scottish suppliers as a result of Scotland’s domestic ‘make’ initiatives.

    ‘By April 2021, approximately 88% of Scotland’s PPE (by value, excluding non-sterile examination gloves) was domestically manufactured. .. the investment of £102.7 million in Scottish suppliers resulted in £66.7 million of additional gross value added (the value generated in the production of goods and services) and supported 1,400 jobs, with an estimated eight-to-one multiplier effect for local spending.’

    Comparing levels of waste:

    Para 7.19: ‘The differences in the nature and scale of the procurement and distribution of healthcare equipment across the UK and in how data were collected during the pandemic meant that direct comparisons of data across the four nations of the UK were difficult to draw. However, to illustrate the scale of the waste:

    In total, the UK government wrote off £9.9 billion of unused PPE ….

    ‘In Scotland, between 2020 and 2023, approximately £8.35 million of healthcare equipment, including testing kits and PPE, was written off

    ‘In Wales, between January 2020 and April 2022, approximately £12 million of PPE was written off.

    ‘In Northern Ireland, between 2022 and 2025, approximately £15.9 million of healthcare equipment was written off …’

    Imagine reaction if the relative write off amounts were unfavourable for Scotland!

    And finally, on the current situation:

    Para 1.57. ‘Shortages in the stockpiles at the time of the next pandemic remain an ongoing risk. With the exception of Scotland, target volumes of PPE across the UK are not being met. In December 2024, June 2025 and September 2025, the stockpiles in England, Wales and Northern Ireland were short of supplies.’

    Again, imagine reaction if Scotland was the ‘exception’ for negative reasons!

    Now, the Inquiry does criticise devolved government in Scotland as well as other devolved governments and Westminster government. But there are relatively positive findings too for Scotland! The National recently reported on this same report from the UK Covid 19 Inquiry on procurement. But why no mention in its reporting of relative positives about Scotland? The ones above were NOT hard to find!

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