No tasteless, titillating for some, exploitative Getty images of tearful young women victims of sexual violence here, unlike in BBC Scotland reporting.

From BBC Scotland today:

Sexual crimes in Scotland hit record high levels. Sexual crimes recorded by Police Scotland increased by 10% last year and are now at their highest level since 1971, official figures show.

The message here is wrong, so wrong.

Why?

The weight of evidence (stable survey prevalence despite exploding recorded figures, increased reporting, societal improvements in women’s rights/consent norms, and parallel declines in other violence) strongly suggests actual rates for many equivalent traditional/contact sexual crimes were higher in the 1970s than today. The “record high” recorded numbers reflect a more open, better-recording society more than a surge in offending. For the most robust view, victim surveys remain superior to police data for incidence trends.

Peer-reviewed research evidence?

1.Scottish historical prosecution data (pre-1971) suggests high under-recording due to narrow legal definitions (e.g., marital rape not criminalized until the 1990s) and stigma.

https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/27811/1/1-s2.0-S0277953620307930-main.pdf

2. In the 1970s, reporting was far lower due to stigma, weaker support services, narrower laws (e.g., no recognition of many non-stranger or online-equivalent behaviours), and less awareness. Police-recorded sexual crimes were much lower then despite likely higher actual incidence for equivalent acts. Modern rises are heavily driven by better reporting, historic disclosures, cyber offences (non-existent in 1971), and broader offence categories.

https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/has-rape-reporting-increased-over-time

3. Victim surveys like the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) and Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) are less affected by reporting behaviour and provide the best long-term trend data:

• SCJS data in Scotland shows the prevalence of serious sexual assault since age 16 at around 3.6% of adults in recent combined years (e.g., 2018-20), similar to levels seen in 2008-09. https://www.rapecrisisscotland.org.uk/resources-stats-key-info/
• CSEW trends for adults in England aged 16-59 show sexual assault prevalence fluctuating with some increase over the past 10 years after earlier declines, but nothing approaching the tripling seen in police-recorded data. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/articles/sexualoffencesprevalenceandtrendsenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2025
• Direct 1970s victim survey data is limited but the overall pattern across decades shows that recorded rises far outpace any survey-measured increases in incidence. Broader violent crime (including non-sexual) has fallen dramatically since the 1990s peak.

4.Finally:

Rape!!! Glasgow Herald works only to scare women with irresponsible, uninformative reporting – Reported rape and attempted rape is a staggering twice as common in England & Wales than it is in Scotland