It’s only a sub-poll based on 212 Scots over 18 years-of-age for the next UK election, so limited on its own, but the scale of the SNP lead and the first 40+ figure is notable. Also notable, unlike YouGov Holyrood polls, their Westmnister polls are not weighted (skewed) to mirror the 12 year-old Referendum 55/45 ratio.
To illustrate the changing picture in Scotland, in early January and for most of February 2026, YouGov had the SNP at 35% but in March an upward trend has become apparent, heading toward 40% and perhaps now beyond that.
In YouGov’s last full Holyrood poll, on 18 February 2026, with the skewed weighting of the sample, they still had the SNP at only 34%, just 16 points ahead of Reform UK.
In the most recent full Holyrood poll by Lord Ashcroft, on 6 March, the SNP hit 39%, 25 points ahead of Reform UK.
It’s hard not to see an encouraging trend here but keep your foot to the pedal!
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Talking-up Scotland 
What people really really want is just a (prolonged) period of time when there is some kind of stability aka ‘Gies some ******* peace FGS’.
The relentless drama that we have all had to endure , since Brexit, is not looking as if it will ease up any time soon, what with Reform UK and now Restore Britain (who BTW are also registered in Companies House as a company, just like Reform UK) who are both, as pretend parties, constantly inciting public disorder , division and hate.
However rather than be seen as a prominent, and so recognised opposition to both Reform UK and Restore Britain , what we are all now seeing with both the Tory party and also the Labour party is them both desperately trying to copy the rhetoric and policies of these pretend parties.
A perspective that only panders to idiots, racists, bigots and basically the worse kind of people who seem to want to embrace a constant state of chaos existing within their British State.
(Not however to embrace chaos to try to impact the real elite within the British State, but more really their version of those that they pretend are the actual (but not real) elites, which is mostly middle class professional people who opposed Brexit and who also oppose people like Nigel Farage (and Rupert Lowe too).
However now that Labour have proven to be a big fat dud , as we have neither witnessed nor experienced any “real change” (for the better) since they took over in 2024, so then it feels as if we are all, it seems, still stuck in the unfortunate and unbearable position of still having to suffer Brexit consequences which has resulted in a state of constant chaos and instability.
The same Brexit consequences that now also sees Scotland subject to yet another UK government, this time a Labour one, forcing the UK Internal Market upon Scotland as a sneaky and corrupt way to overrule and control our devolved government’s powers and money.
(We didn’t see that written in the small print that Gordon brown referred to in the empty promises that both he and others made to Scotland in 2014 as part of the Better Together NO side)
The fact that the SNP are leading in the polls just now, is in fact the only thing that actually makes any real logical sense , all things considered , as surely most people in Scotland must be pig sick of:
The constant instability with Scotland being a part of the UK State.
The never ending political and economic volatility in the UK State.
The obvious lack of strategy via this latest Labour UK government. (which we also witnessed with the previous Tory one)
Their, various UK governments, unresponsiveness in them failing to try to address the basic needs of those that they govern within the UK State , who , as citizens, are still enduring what was previously called ‘The Tory Cost of living crisis’ (the same one that Labour promised it would address and so then fix, if it won the 2024 UK GE).
Also the deepening inequality where the poorest and most vulnerable are made to shoulder all of the burden, cost and impact of what Labour said was a Tory financial black hole (while the rich were , and still are , all somehow allowed to continue being unscathed by no wealth tax being applied to them to fill the financial gap)
Also an obvious lack of commitment by Labour on the transition to renewable energy and so their supposed big announcement in their 2024 election campaign, GB Energy Ltd, has proven to be nothing more than just style over substance.
Mainly because they reduced the investment amount they had formerly pledged for it (Labour ditched its policy of spending £28bn a year on its green investment plan, in a major U-turn) , also where all of the jobs promised with GB Energy Ltd have not, as yet, materialised and neither has it , so far, managed to lower energy bills as was also promised.
The UK is a complete mess and it, as a State, has not fulfilled that which UK politicians promised it would fulfil , in 2014, for all of the citizens within Scotland……..that alone should see a soar in both the SNP’s vote and also substantial rise in support for independence too.
After all it does seem as if the UK State is dropping down, down, down to the very bottom, so then surely an independent Scotland would only have one place to go…….and that is up.
Smaller countries with less resources have succeeded as independent countries but also a certain smaller country with similar resources to Scotland (Norway) has thrived , as they , Norway, did not waste their lucrative resource (Oil) but instead they applied resource management via an Oil fund, that now sees them far better off than the UK State (and also better off than Scotland).
Of course they , Norway, also did not have another government (UK one) , outwith Norway , plunder and so then use their precious resource (Oil) for what they , as another government in another country, decided to spend it on…..
As when Oil was first discovered in the North Sea, we had a UK State where Tony Benn, the then Labour UK Energy Secretary, was “aware of the severe economic difficulties Britain faced in the mid-1970s—including high inflation, industrial disputes, and a balance of payments crisis—and positioned the oil as vital for the economic stability of the United Kingdom” and so the arrival of the oil in the North Sea in 1975 was seen as a “major economic lifeline for the UK State at that time”.
Oil is still generating money for the UK Treasury and we are now told that it will still be needed to be relied upon for “decades to come” for the UK State, and yet in 2014 Scotland was told Oil could not be relied upon as a financial asset , for any oil revenues for an independent Scotland.
We were also told in 2014 that oil, according to an expert (Sir Ian Wood) that the BBC produced, would run out by 2019………it is now 2026 so we are now what , with Oil, in the UK State?
Running on empty ?
So perhaps much of the recent and current polls are reflecting what has fastly become a scunnered reaction within Scotland by even more people here, who are now against what is being seen as the dishonesty of UK State’s politics ,where perhaps more people in Scotland are now coming to reject the UK State and it’s politics.
I do hope so.
It is worth noting that Reform UK are picking up the support and votes from those (diminishing) sections of Scottish society that fall under the category of the “usual suspects”, who as “usual suspects” , seem to see it as being their job to always:
Try to stop Scotland prospering.
To also try to stop any sense of stability happening.
To try to maintain the hardship and suffering that comes with Scotland still being a part of the UK State.
Also they mainly endorse and so then always embrace hate, division, aggression and so then they prefer , it seems, to wallow in a constant state of misery and despair, while most decent and fair people reject that as a future alternative for them and their families.
I do so hope that post May 7th we will see sanity prevail and so then common sense applied b y the public within Scotland…..(ideally with the SNP winning a majority while other parties who support the UK State, especially Reform UK, lose badly).
Liz S
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*It is worth noting that Reform UK are picking up the support and votes from those (diminishing) sections of Scottish society.
“diminishing” , probably not the right word.
What I meant to write, but failed to, was that , surely they, the “usual suspects” within Scotland , will eventually have a reduced presence here in Scotland.
As instead we may be witness to a future Scotland that chooses a far better way for the future, where a majority within Scotland opposes all of this blaming others (as in always only blaming the more vulnerable people and also the poorer people) .
Where we are currently witnessing all of them choosing to express that (misplaced) blame and opposition with them publicly protesting their hate and division.
No more should we allow some of these ‘usual suspects’ and the parties that they support , to always blame the wrong people, while the real culprits always somehow remain under the radar.
Currently there are indeed certain sections of Scottish society who both support and vote for false flags that are raised by parties like Reform UK and Restore Britain.
These false flags seek to shift the blame onto others (as in those who are blameless) , while also trying to misrepresent and so obscure the real problems that exist within the British State.
Reform UK and indeed Restore Britain.
Look at their policies and then see who they really want to represent and support………they endorse and so want to implement within the UK State lower taxes, reduce Corporation tax, Business deregulation, Private Healthcare and Farage also seeks a stronger link between the UK state and the Trump Administration , which then paves the way for some American companies to try to exploit the UK markets.
So then who who benefits from this ?
Well Farage and others like him and also mostly the wealthy aka the real elites within the UK (and also all of those foreign investors with significant UK assets and where some also have part time properties within the UK in prime locations).
Honestly it is the ingrained prejudice and the misplaced priorities of some of the “usual suspects” that is holding Scotland back……..and that, going forward as a position, is surely one that is untenable.
Liz S
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