Why did cancer mortality drop in the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022 if the Daily Record’s contrary claims are true?

The Daily Record today, has:

Cancelled cancer appointments during Covid led to ‘loss of life in Scotland’ – Pausing bowel cancer screening appointments in Scotland during Covid-19 led to missed and late diagnoses, longer waits for colorectal cancer treatment and ultimately loss of life, an inquiry heard. The UK Covid-19 Public Inquiry’ has heard how millions of people had non-urgent operations cancelled during the pandemic.

The claim comes from, as far as I can see, no actual figures, but just the views of the Chair, Baroness Heather Hallett when she said:

The lack of screening for colorectal cancer, for example, led to missed and late diagnoses, longer waits for colorectal cancer treatment and ultimately loss of life.

It seems a plausible suggestion, but reading it, I was reminded of Scottish Labour’s predictions of a ‘tsunami of cancer deaths’ back in 2020 ands 2021, as non-urgent operations began to be cancelled, but when Public Health Scotland announced this, on December 4th 2022:

The continuing decrease in cancer mortality rates is consistent with long-term trends. Therefore, it appears that the pandemic did not adversely impact cancer mortality rates in 2021.

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/cancer-mortality/cancer-mortality-in-scotland-annual-update-to-2021/

For the stat geeks, this research properly compares two 4-year blocks of data, 2016-2020 and 2017-2021, and finds a significant fall in mortality for all cancers for all 5 deprivation levels.

In 2022, the rate had dropped again slightly, from 16 438 to 16 265. https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/cancer-mortality/cancer-mortality-in-scotland-annual-update-to-2022

There has clearly been no tsunami of cancer deaths despite significant reductions in treatment. Some sacred cows should be at least examined?

Throughout 2020 and into 2021, Scottish Labour had tastelessly weaponised the inevitable reductions in cancer treatment, especially surgery, to protect vulnerable patients from a deadly virus. The ‘tsunami of cancer deaths‘ featured in multiple headlines as Scottish Labour flaunted their faux compassion.

2 thoughts on “Why did cancer mortality drop in the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022 if the Daily Record’s contrary claims are true?

  1. The Daily Ranger is playing the game of deciding that Nicola Sturgeon is to blame for everything adverse that happened in Scotland during Covid and then working back to find data which, if decontextualised, can be juxtaposed to create a chain which apparently leads to the conclusion it wants.

    Ergo, an untested, though plausible hypothesis by Baroness Hallett, who is not a doctor, is treated as a fact, even though the data regarding deaths from colorectal cancer in Scotland during the Covid period disproves the hypothesis.

    Liked by 2 people

Leave a reply to Alasdair Macdonald Cancel reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.