YouGov is no friend of the SNP nor of Scottish Independence. They have an unerring ability to pluck out a NO lead in a stream of YES leads found by other pollsters and lower SNP figures than others. See below:

They do this over and over by adjusting the sample so that, even after 11 or 12 years, it has a 55 to 45 ratio of No and Yes voters in 2014, in full Scotland only polls.

In their most recent, above, see how, even though they already had a 510 to 433 bias in favour of No, they then adjusted that, weighted it, to an even stronger 524 to 423 bias in favour of No, replicating the 2014 referendum result. That’s how they get No leads time after time and smaller SNP support.

However, when it does a full UK Westminster poll the Scottish sub-poll results, though too small on their own, are not skewed by the 2014 result.

Too small on their own, but if 12 of them tell the same story?

In the last 12 Westminster polls by YouGov, from 2nd November 2025 to January 19th 2026, the SNP share has climbed steadily – 35%, 33%, 32%, 34%, 39%, 39%, 40%, 37%, 40%, 40%, 40% and 33% – and seems to be settling around 40%. That last 33% is still nearly twice the Labour figure in a poll with an unusually large Green figure of 11% up from 4% in the previous, perhaps then affecting the SNP share of the pro-independence support. These are small samples of only around 200 so quite volatile. Given the volatile small samples, 6 out of the last 8 at 39 0r 40% is very interesting. That would lead to a devastating outcome, including the end of Jackie Baillie, a miserable defeat for Labour and a Reform UK damp squib.