The Scottish elections loom and universally the media are coalescing around a drive to try to stem support for the SNP with reports of supposed evidence of incompetence by that party in government. This, they and the opposition will repeat daily along the lines of – ‘If they can manage….how could they expect to run a country?’

We’re going to be busy here these next 5 months.

As with the Sunday Mail today (previous post), there’s no way I’m paying whatever the SOS costs to find out what dodgy sums they’re using to compare the DWP and the SSS. They could use suicides by the disabled after assessment, I suppose.

So, it’s not really possible to meaningfully compare the two given the newness of the latter and the broader range of benefits and pensions handled by the former but, by dog, they are much bigger.

SSS – £235 million and 4 000 staff.¹

DWP – £4.5 billion and 90 000 staff.²

So the DWP, is more than 20 times bigger and costs 20 times as much for only 11 times the population.

Is there another area where ‘our’ might have compared the two?

The DWP programme of reassessing people on disability benefits using the Work Capability Assessment was independently associated with an increase in suicides, self-reported mental health problems and antidepressant prescribing. This policy may have had serious adverse consequences for mental health in England, which could outweigh any benefits that arise from moving people off disability benefits.³

Sources:

1. https://www.socialsecurity.gov.scot/reporting/publications
2. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dwp-annual-report-and-accounts-2024-to-2025
3. https://jech.bmj.com/content/70/4/339

Might the Initial Extra Cost of the SSS be Justified?

Yes, the higher costs of SSS appear justified by its superior reputation and potential to mitigate harms like those in DWP cases, though this comes with trade-offs and uncertainties:

• Positive Outcomes: SSS’s approach reduces poverty, debt, and improves wellbeing by design. gov.scot By avoiding DWP-style assessments, it likely prevents mental health deterioration and suicides—directly addressing vulnerabilities that led to deaths like Whiting’s or Day’s. Scottish ministers argue the £5.4bn+ annual cost (rising) is worth a “more generous system.” bbc.com Evidence shows social security investments yield long-term savings in health and social care, though specific modeling for SSS is lacking. swbg.org.uk
• Counterarguments: Critics highlight “ballooning costs” (e.g., £1.3bn shortfall projected), questioning value for money amid higher taxes and inefficiencies. frasernelson.substack.com Light-touch reviews may inflate caseloads unnecessarily. resolutionfoundation.org However, caseload trends are similar across UK nations, suggesting ADP hasn’t driven excessive rises—improving experiences without proportional cost hikes. resolutionfoundation.org

Overall, SSS’s model aligns with a human rights-based ethos, delivering tangible reputational and experiential gains that could avert DWP-like tragedies. This justifies the premium for many stakeholders, especially given Scotland’s focus on child poverty reduction and disability support, but fiscal sustainability remains a key challenge. For deeper analysis, ongoing evaluations (e.g., via Audit Scotland) will clarify long-term value. audit.scot