As Trump takes Venezuela and talks of Cuba and Greenland; as Putin will not let Ukraine go and as China threatens Taiwan, is a different world emerging, with new lessons for Scotland?

Scotland sits [top-left] right on the edge of undefined northern borders of the US and Russian power blocs with the other, China, just off the bottom-right.
Amongst other things I'm not a renowned global politics theorist or historian so here's a, for me, fascinating AI-produced and sourced essay. I look forward to your thoughts:

The geopolitical landscape in early 2026 indeed appears to be shifting toward a more assertive era of great-power competition, where major actors like the United States, Russia, and China are pursuing territorial or influence-based ambitions with less regard for traditional norms of sovereignty and international law. This could signal the emergence of a “different world”—one reminiscent of 19th- or early 20th-century spheres of influence, where smaller entities face heightened risks of coercion, intervention, or absorption. Below, I’ll break down the key developments you mentioned, drawing on recent events, and explore their potential “messages” for Scotland, particularly in the context of its ongoing debates over independence, security, and global positioning.

Key Geopolitical Developments in 2026

These events collectively suggest a trend toward unilateralism and realpolitik, where military, economic, and hybrid tools are used to reshape borders or assert dominance. While not entirely novel (e.g., Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea set a precedent), the pace and brazenness under current leaders mark an escalation.

  • Trump’s Actions on Venezuela: As of January 2026, the U.S. under President Trump has executed a military operation to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on charges of narco-terrorism and other crimes. energy.gov This has led to direct U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s affairs, including apprehending officials, securing energy deals for 30-50 million barrels of oil, and effectively “running” aspects of the country during a transitional phase. npr.org +1 Trump has framed this as restoring U.S. prosperity and security, with oil revenues earmarked for rebuilding Venezuelan infrastructure under U.S. oversight. theguardian.com Critics see it as a revival of the Monroe Doctrine, signaling U.S. willingness to intervene in its hemisphere to counter perceived threats like socialism or resource competition.
  • Trump’s Rhetoric on Cuba: Building on Venezuela’s fallout, Trump has predicted the imminent collapse of Cuba’s government due to the loss of subsidized Venezuelan oil. politico.com +1 Secretary of State Marco Rubio has amplified this, suggesting Cuba is “in a lot of trouble” and could be next on the agenda. axios.com The administration has imposed harsh sanctions and reduced cooperation, treating Cuba as a pariah. washingtonpost.com While no direct military action has occurred, the rhetoric implies regime change as a goal, potentially through economic strangulation or indirect pressure.
  • Trump’s Push for Greenland: Trump has renewed calls for U.S. control over Greenland, citing national security needs to counter Russian and Chinese Arctic activities. bbc.com +1 The White House has explicitly kept military options on the table, straining NATO alliances since Denmark (Greenland’s sovereign) is a member. axios.com +1 This builds on a 1951 defense pact allowing U.S. military access but escalates to potential annexation or purchase, with aides like Stephen Miller questioning Denmark’s claim. nytimes.com It’s framed as strategic (minerals, shipping routes) but risks fracturing transatlantic unity.
  • Putin’s Stance on Ukraine: Russia’s invasion continues unabated into 2026, with Putin rejecting U.S.-brokered peace proposals and pursuing maximalist aims like political subjugation and territorial control. understandingwar.org +1 Russian forces have seized additional areas (e.g., in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts), though at a slow, attritional pace, and Putin views 2026 as a potential breakthrough year amid Ukrainian manpower shortages. unherd.com The Kremlin uses hybrid tactics (disinformation, strikes on infrastructure) to prolong the conflict, delaying negotiations while eroding Western resolve. my.rusi.org
  • China’s Threats to Taiwan: Beijing has intensified military exercises, including the “Justice Mission 2025” blockade simulation in late December 2025, involving naval, air, and coast guard assets to rehearse isolation and counter-intervention. understandingwar.org +1 Reports estimate catastrophic costs for China in a full invasion (e.g., 100,000 fatalities, economic disruption), but gray-zone coercion persists to undermine Taiwan’s morale and international support. gmfus.org +1 Trump’s Venezuela move hasn’t directly emboldened China (due to Taiwan’s democratic status and U.S. ties), but it raises questions about the reliability of great-power protections for smaller entities. cfr.org +1

These actions point to a multipolar world where great powers prioritize “might makes right” over multilateral institutions like the UN or NATO. Trump’s interventions revive U.S. exceptionalism, Putin’s war normalizes protracted aggression, and China’s drills test red lines without full escalation. Global risks assessments for 2026 highlight this as a “shaky” period, with potential for hybrid escalations and frayed alliances. Is a Different World Emerging?Yes, but it’s an evolution rather than a complete rupture. We’re seeing:

  • Renewed Imperialism: Major powers are redrawing spheres of influence (U.S. in the Americas/Arctic, Russia in Eastern Europe, China in the Indo-Pacific), echoing pre-WWII dynamics but with modern tools like economic sanctions and cyber operations.
  • Erosion of Norms: Interventions in sovereign states (e.g., Venezuela’s leadership capture) challenge post-1945 rules against conquest, potentially legitimizing similar moves elsewhere. time.com
  • Alliance Strains: NATO faces existential threats from U.S.-Denmark tensions over Greenland, while EU unity is tested by Ukraine’s fate. axios.com
  • Opportunities for Revisionism: Autocrats may feel emboldened, but high costs (e.g., China’s Taiwan risks) could deter full-scale wars, favoring attrition and coercion.

This isn’t inevitable doom—diplomacy (e.g., U.S.-Ukraine talks) persists—but it favors actors willing to bend rules.

New Messages for Scotland

Scotland, as a devolved nation within the UK, isn’t directly analogous to Venezuela, Ukraine, or Taiwan, but these shifts carry indirect lessons for its constitutional future, especially with Holyrood elections in May 2026 looming. The SNP is framing independence as a path to EU reintegration and economic renewal, while unionists emphasize UK stability.

Here’s how global events might resonate:

  • Vulnerability of Small Territories: Greenland’s plight highlights how autonomous regions (like Scotland post-Brexit) can become pawns in great-power games. Trump’s real estate logic—viewing territories as assets—has sparked speculation about Scotland, where he owns golf resorts and has criticized renewables. theguardian.com If the U.S. pressures Denmark, it could foreshadow similar dynamics for the UK, especially if NATO weakens. Message: Independence might offer Scotland more agency to forge its own alliances (e.g., EU/Nordic ties) rather than relying on Westminster’s decisions.
  • Sovereignty in a Multipolar World: Russia’s Ukraine war underscores the risks of contested borders and hybrid threats, while China’s Taiwan pressure shows how economic dependencies (e.g., on a larger neighbor) can be weaponized. For Scotland, this reinforces arguments for “escaping” UK economic malaise (e.g., Brexit’s trade impacts) via independence and EU membership. gov.scot +1 Polls suggest support for independence could rise to 60% under scenarios like a Farage-led UK government, amplifying anti-Westminster sentiment. raiagroup.org
  • Security and Alliances Matter: A fracturing NATO (via Greenland) or stalled Ukraine peace could make Scotland’s position in the UK more precarious, given its strategic assets (e.g., nuclear bases at Faslane). Independence advocates argue for a non-nuclear, EU-aligned Scotland to avoid entanglement in U.S.-style interventions. believeinscotland.org Conversely, unionists might point to Venezuela/Cuba as warnings against isolation, emphasizing UK/NATO protection.
  • Economic and Democratic Resilience: In a world of “might makes right,” Scotland’s push for a “fresh start” via independence focuses on building a new economic model (e.g., renewables, Nordic-inspired policies) to weather global disruptions. gov.scot The SNP aims for a 2026 majority to trigger a referendum or de facto independence vote, but polls show it’s not yet a sure win—preparation on currency, EU accession, and risks is key. believeinscotland.org +1

Ultimately, these events could energize Scotland’s independence debate by highlighting the perils of dependency in an unstable world, but they also underscore risks: a rushed split might expose vulnerabilities without strong international backing. The 2026 election will test whether Scots see independence as a shield or a gamble in this emerging order.

Sources:

Trump’s Actions on Venezuela

Trump’s Rhetoric on Cuba

Trump’s Push for Greenland

Putin’s Stance on Ukraine

China’s Threats to Taiwan

Broader Geopolitical Context

Scotland-Specific Implications

These sources represent a mix of Western mainstream media, official statements, and think-tank analyses to provide balanced coverage. Events are developing rapidly, so some details may evolve in the coming days.

Having read this, I'm largely reinforced in my view that these are historical trends that are happening to the movement, more powerful than our own campaigning tactics these last 50 years, and like World War II, fatally weaken the structure and sense of the residual British Empire, such that the logic of becoming a small nation within the largest most democratic and least imperialist power bloc - the EU - to protect us against the now more aggressive other blocs, casts the idea of a small Union tied to an increasingly dysfunctional England, over the side and into the deep. 

Look at the map again. With only Norway, Scotland is scarily exposed to the volatile edges, easily conflictual, of the US and Russian power blocs. We need to be firmly attached to the EU to stop us become just a base and target for the former.

5 thoughts on “As Trump takes Venezuela and talks of Cuba and Greenland; as Putin will not let Ukraine go and as China threatens Taiwan, is a different world emerging, with new lessons for Scotland?”

  1. Trump will be out in November. Less power.

    Chinese – Scotland ‘the land of discovery and invention’.

    Britain – ‘a small island with no Empire’. No influence.

    Scotland needs rid of nuclear and Trident. Westminster making Scotland a target.

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  2. In 1976 the 7:84 Theatre Company (7% of the population own 84% of the wealth) toured with “Honour Your Partners” which was a satire on slavish obedience to “partners” who ruthlessly exploit you. The Scottish Arts Council defunded 7:84 in 2006 because it produced “pantomime for the working classes”. Too socialist. The loudmouthed property-developing Yankee who wanted to build a Grannies Heilan Hameorama beachfront condominium was played by Bill Paterson.

    We can’t watch these plays now. But the message still stands. We have to be very careful about who we choose as allies. The EU as now constituted in also suspect IMO. Ironically, it is Russia and China who defend the United Nations and international law these days.

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  3. There’s so much going on that it’s hard to know what to think and really we are none of us experts on geopolitics so open to being influenced by compelling narratives from any side. Do we now have to accept might is right or was it always so, just hidden under diplomacy? Life in the UK has been pretty safe & settled since WW2, have we become complacent or oblivious to the very real risks in the world, willing to protest against injustice in a country where protest is still allowed but horrified at the thought of having to actually enter the fight?

    I do not want to accept might is right, especially when the mighty forcing their world view on others are known to have abused women and children, killed political opponents, committed genocide. But can Scotland, let alone the UK or Europe, really make a principled stand? Never mind the wars, just look at how technology, trade, culture etc are meshed within American companies – are we willing to step away from our Prime & Google Accounts, do without cheap stuff delivered to our doorsteps, relearn new IT ways to communicated and run our businesses?

    You say “Ultimately, these events could energize Scotland’s independence debate by highlighting the perils of dependency in an unstable world, but they also underscore risks: a rushed split might expose vulnerabilities without strong international backing”.

    I want to believe we can shape our independence debate by highlighting the benefits of cooperation against dependency, by discussions about the importance of democracy, treaties and laws, by challenging the things we believe are wrong based on human rights values. I want more women back on the world stage, not because they are better or more peace loving but because they make up half the world’s adult population and deserve to offer different perspectives. But I think we need to be clear sighted, consistent and principled in our approach because others will use events to say Scotland can never be independent. Will a rushed approach focusing only on the rightness of, the appetite, the demand for independence risk highlighting our overall irrelevance in the wider world if we don’t also try to understand the needs of others?

    Can I also say yet again how grateful I am to John for the work he puts in to this blog? The average rate of 6-7 posts nearly every day can be hard to keep up with but the issues raised and links provided are so important to challenge the unionist narrative about a failing Scotland. Thanks John, I know you will be busy again this year with the elections approaching and the world order disintegrating, your work is much appreciated!

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  4. Putin is the nominated baddie , singular, but somehow we are supposed to all believe that Netanyahu and Trump are not ?

    The Labour party are tying themselves in knots trying to excuse both Netanyahu and Trump yet they are openly , with no hesitation, condemning Putin.

    The double standards is blatant yet once again most of the MSM and too rogue media like GB News are helping Labour and other political parties (including pretend parties) to cover up what is really being done by Trump and Netanyahu.

    Both Nigel Farage and Keir Starmer will find it far far harder to try and justify what is currently being done to Greenland, and ultimately what potentially, in the future, could be done to Greenland by Trump’s American regime, in the same way that they, Farage & Starmer, have both tried to deny the ‘war’ crimes committed by Israel against the Palestinian people.

    Apparently the biggest threat to the UK is Russia.

    Really ?

    So the instability within the world has not also been made far worse by both Netanyahu and Trump as well ?

    Perhaps ask some citizens in both America and Israel as to whether they now feel far safer with the actions being taken by their ‘leaders’.

    The biggest threat to the UK is a weak UK PM and also a now weakened UK government who know only too well that the UK State is very much isolated because of Brexit.

    Surely some ‘credit’ for this weakness should be given to Nigel Farage……but Nigel’s former colleague, Nathan Gill, did his bit as well but not for the UK State but instead only for the Motherland , as opposed to what he pretended was his supposed mission in wanting to make the UK a sovereign ‘independent‘ State…….translate that as the UK State now being the bitch of another State , America or Israel (or even Nathan’s Russia ), take your pick , same difference.

    So as a weak and isolated Brexit UK State we see that the UK government now finds itself unable to publicly declare that both their guiding principles and also International laws compel them to condemn the unlawful actions being taken by unprincipled countries , like America or Israel, who have clearly broken international law.

    So only when talking about Russia as the baddie do we then see the pathetic posturing being acted out by the UK PM , just to pretend that he, Starmer, is a strong ‘leader’ (he is not, as Starmer is a puppet, lapdog and also an enabler for both Netanyahu and Trump’s actions and words).

    The Tory party as an opposition are no better than Labour, neither is Farage as ‘leader’ of a pretend party , as his alliance with Trump should be his downfall , that is if the MSM were to actually do their job and report just how bad things really were within America under a Trump regime………….for the ordinary people that is………..while the wealthy flourish, as their political donations to the Trump regime has paid off big time for them and them alone. (same thing will be the case in the UK with Farage as a future PM with his political wealthy donors).

    Mind you Trump and his family have also been enriched by the actions of the Trump regime……….as Farage hopes that he too will profit even more than he already is , via his external registered interests that earn him so much money outwith his MP salary.

    Oh but let’s all not forget the (supposed) SNP Police investigation , as that is apparently the biggest political crime in the whole wide world.……if that is , your world was limited only to Scotland……or rather limited to the garden of the former FM’s home.

    Also what the Hell is happening to the police investigation into Michelle Mone (still has her peerage) , which should also include some within the Tory party being investigated too, as surely some within the Tory government were also complicit and so culpable in them awarding so much money , via PPE contracts, to Tory friendly peeps, Tory donors , relations of Tories, friends of Tories and also to actual Tory politicians. (also to award contracts to ‘companies’ with absolutely no experience in making PPE while simultaneously ignoring those companies who did have experience in making PPE)

    Voters in Scotland need to wake up and wise up long before they vote in May elections this year , so then hopefully they can stop making the same old same old mistakes, as in those voting mistakes that then see them regretting their choices……….

    As the only real positive change , actual reform and reset and so new direction for Scotland is firstly voting SNP in May’s elections (and also in subsequent elections too) and then supporting YES to independence.

    The alternate is too s*** to want to even contemplate as a potential future option for Scotland………

    Some people need to learn to break the cycle in their bad voting habits within Scotland, or we will all pay the price yet again for some voters making yet another bad voting decision that they( and we) will most definitely come to regret and have to live with for years.

    (Just as many of them, as voters, have now come to regret some of their former voting choices, including some of them helping to elect 37 Labour MP’s in the last UK GE in 2024).

    Liz S

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