Professor John Robertson OBA
From BBC Scotland on 24 December 2025:
The number of laboratory-confirmed flu cases in Scotland has dropped by more than a third, new figures show. Public Health Scotland (PHS) data, external shows there were 1,297 confirmed cases in the week to 21 December – down from 1,994 in the previous week. Provisional figures also suggest there were 679 flu-related hospital admissions across the country, down from 950 in the previous week.
PHS said the latest figures were encouraging but warned there could be more than one wave of flu in a season and urged people to take steps to stop the virus spreading over the festive period. Separate data from the National Records of Scotland also shows the increase in flu-related deaths is slowing down.
There were a total of 73 deaths with flu listed as an underlying cause in the week to 15 December. This is up from 67 in the week to 8 December, but the number of deaths had more than doubled the previous week.
On the same day BBC Health Correspondent Nick Triggle posted:
The amount of flu circulating has started to fall in England, latest data suggests, external. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said it was encouraging news heading into Christmas, but warned the virus could always bounce back in the new year.
The UKHSA uses a range of different measures to monitor flu rates, including sample testing in hospitals and in GP practices. The latest data covers last week up to Sunday with the UKHSA concluding the virus was circulating “at medium levels”.
Similar [sic] trends are being seen elsewhere in the UK. Public Health Scotland said it had seen two weeks of cases decreasing.
So, BBC Scotland’s health correspondent thinks that cases decreasing two weeks earlier in Scotland is a just a ‘similar’ trend? Where is his curiosity about that?
We know, don’t we?
Why has Scotland peaked earlier? We started on 15 September while England started on 1 October 2025, 16 days later.
Scottish Government significantly widened access to free flu vaccine to give more than twice as many, per capita, protection from worrying new mutation
First, availability in England – you can get the free NHS flu vaccine if you:
- are aged 65 or over (including those who will be 65 by 31 March 2026)
- have certain long-term health conditions
- are pregnant
- live in a care home
- are the main carer for an older or disabled person, or receive a carer’s allowance
- live with someone who has a weakened immune system
Source: https://www.nhs.uk/vaccinations/flu-vaccine/
In Scotland, significantly wider free availability is in place
This includes:
- those aged 65 and over (on or before 31 March 2025)
- those aged 18 to 64 with an eligible health condition (as defined in the chapter 19 of the Green Book)
- those who are pregnant
- those living in a long-stay residential care home or other long-stay care facility
- those living with someone who has a weakened immune system
- an unpaid or young carer
- a frontline health or social care worker
- a non-frontline NHS worker
- a poultry worker or bird handler
- an asylum seeker living in a Home Office hotel or B&B accommodation
- those experiencing homelessness
- those experiencing substance misuse
- those living in a Scottish prison
Second, uptake-levels in key groups are already significantly lower in key >65 group in England.
For 2024-2025, early trends show Scotland with stronger uptake among over-65s (71.6% vs. England’s ~60-65% estimated based on historical patterns) – multiple sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1987603360061788291
Perhaps most indicative of the risk is the number of doses given and the contrast is shocking.
NHS Scotland has given 927 000 doses so far (down 20% on last year’s total): https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-6-november-2025/
All things being equal, we might expect the figure in England to be around 9.27 million but it was only 4.3million: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2025-to-2026-season/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-report-6-november-2025-week-45
So, less than half the Scottish uptake per capita, in England, reflecting the wider free availability, above.
Has any journalist in Scotland noticed this?
NHS Scotland nearly 30% more beds, per head, than NHS England, to cope better with future pandemics
From Acute hospital activity and NHS beds information (annual) Year ending 31 March 2025 published today:
In 2024/25, the average number of available staffed beds per day for acute specialties was 13,717 – a 0.3% decrease on the previous year (2023/24) and a 3.7% increase compared to five years ago (2019/20).
From NHS England’s Bed Availability and Occupancy Data (KH03 collection) for Quarter 4 2024/25 (January to March 2025), published on the NHS England statistics website:
106,068 is the total number of available general and acute beds (overnight) in NHS England for Quarter 4 of 2024/25 (January to March 2025), the most recent full quarter as of September 30, 2025.
All things being equal, per head, pro rata, NHS England might be expected to have around 10 times as many beds as NHS Scotland, 137 000, but had only 106 000, 31 000 fewer.
This NHS Scotland has, per head, 29.2% more beds than NHS England.
Might that have played a part in Scotland having a far lower Covid 19 pandemic death rate?
When adjusted for population (deaths per 100,000 people), the rates were closer: England (260 per 100,000), Wales (260), Scotland (190), and Northern Ireland (170). England and Wales had the highest rates overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
Scotland has 71% more nurses
In England there were nearly seven nurses per 1,000 people, while there were nearly 12 per 1,000 in Scotland. https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/uk-fewer-nurses-per-head-33961132
OMG if the Daily Record doesn’t attempt to hide that, it must be true!
So, 5 more than 7 per 1 000 people, is 71.4%
Sources:
- https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/12/nhs-facing-worst-case-scenario-december-amid-super-flu-surge/
- https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-11-december-2025/
And:
Thanks to Dorothy for alerting me to this.
According to Dr Chris Streather, who’s Medical Director for the NHS in London, on Channel 4 News last night, NHS England has vaccinated more than 1.8 million for the flu virus1. That answer was in response to a question about vaccine denial.
Both Dorothy and I thought the same – is that all?
Why? We’ve been here before comparing stats from NHS Scotland and NHS England where the latter should be 10 times greater on anything to just be at the same level per head of population.
1.8 million in England might then be around 180 000 in Scotland, but from the Scottish Government yesterday:
New evidence from Public Health Scotland and early evidence from UKHSA shows that this year’s vaccine does a good job of preventing hospital admissions for the strains currently circulating. As of 7 December, over 1.2 million adult flu vaccines have been delivered – over 97,000 more than this point last winter. In addition, more than 470,000 children have had their vaccine, bringing the total number of flu vaccinations delivered this season to over 1.7 million.2
So, it seems, NHS Scotland may be vaccinating for flu at almost 10 times the rate as NHS England.
1.8 million jabs for England’s 58 million and 1.7 million jags for Scotland’s 5.5 million.
Sources:
- https://www.channel4.com/news/flu-effects-would-be-exacerbated-by-unnecessary-doctors-strike-says-nhs-london-medical-director
- https://www.gov.scot/news/resilience-committee-meets-to-discuss-winter-flu/
Dr Streather, given his job, should know what he’s talking about.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Expect the Media will be all over this huge discrepancy between the Scottish NHS and Wes Streeting’s plaything !
No ?
How can the ”failing” Scottish NHS ( copyright Damn Jaikie Baillie ) be in a better position during the ‘Flu Season than the English ?
Imagine these figures were reversed !
BBC misreporting Scotland would be in an orgasmic frenzy and calling for the head of the Health Secretary and Lisa Summers would be in hyperbole heaven .
The Scottish (sic) newspaper headlines would be signalling the end of the SNP Government ( again ! ) and talking up the coronation of Anas Sarwar ( again ! ).
Situation normal !
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When data indicating that the number of cases of flu in Scotland had passed a peak and had started to decline, the BBC Scotland headline was, ‘Flu cases might still rise’.
This heading was replaced a few hours later with a more factual heading.
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You may have noticed this rare occurrence: a positively-framed headline about NHS Scotland was published (December 23) on the Scotland page of the BBC News website: ‘A&E waiting times improve ahead of busy festive period’.
On long waits, the BBC reported that during a week in mid-December: ’14% of patients waited over eight hours, compared to 16.9% the week before, and 6.9% had waits of more than 12 hours, down from 8.6% previously.’
The headline’s positivity was soon countered in the article by the BBC sharing with us the views of opposition politicians. Displaying the usual BBC blind spot over notions of perspective or context in its reporting on Scotland, the article goes on to amplify the views of the British Labour Party’s health spokesperson, Jackie Baillie: “It is shameful that thousands of Scots are still facing long waits in A&E, despite Health Secretary Neil Gray promising to get on top of the issue.
“It is quite clear that the SNP government has no real plan and no ideas about how to address the problems in our NHS to restore it to the level the public need and deserve.” (my emphasis)
Only the week before, one of BBC Scotland’s ‘go to’ advocacy bodies, the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM) issued a press statement regarding NHS Wales (December 18) where of course Labour has long been the responsible party of government: ‘When will the record setting end?’: Emergency Departments in Wales experience worst-ever November performance ‘
Here we’re told: ‘Emergency Departments (EDs) in Wales are under significant strain as new data revealed they experienced the worst November on record for four, eight and 12 hour waits.’ Spot the signs of Labour politicians having a ‘real plan’ and ‘ideas’ about how to address this situation, anyone?
We also learn that ‘one in seven patients (10,107) waited 12 hours or more in major EDs’ i.e.14.3%. Recall, the NHS Scotland figured quoted by the BBC (see above) was just 8.6% in one week BEFORE the improvement to 5.5%!
Then on December 17, the RCEM looked towards NHS England and the Westminster government: ‘‘Corridor care can only be stopped in the corridors of power” – MPs receive striking festive greetings card from RCEM’
Referring to NHS England, RCEM President is quoted: “December 25 is just another day, which means thousands of patients will be stuck waiting hours upon hours in noisy, chaotic and dangerous conditions in A&E because hospitals don’t have the capacity to take them in.
And in a direct reference to the Labour government in Westminster: “This is happening because of a lack of political will to address this crisis. The problem has been neglected for far too long and this must stop. So-called ‘corridor care’ can only be stopped in the corridors of power. I hope MPs, when they open the cards from us, take our message to heart and use their positions to push the government into action.“
Signs of Labour in government in Westminster having a ‘real plan’ and ‘ideas’ about how to address this situation?
BBC Scotland ignores all of this UK context. It considers that voters in Scotland don’t need to know of Labour’s actual track record in government in Cardiff and Westminster whilst it amplifies, wholly uncritically, the views of British Labour Party leaders in Scotland who claim to have the ‘solution’. Baillie et al clearly haven’t been sharing their distinctive plan and big ideas with their own party leaders in government elsewhere in the UK.
BBC Scotland – with its shallow, uncritical, context- and perspective-free journalism – is simply complicit in enabling the British Labour Party in Scotland to deceive voters over the party’s credentials on the NHS in the run up to the Holyrood election in 2026.
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