Professor John Robertson OBA

From Viral respiratory diseases in Scotland surveillance report published today:

Influenza activity in Scotland has steadied or decreased in many systems, returning to medium activity overall based on reporting of laboratory-confirmed cases. Cases decreased by 20% to 1918 from 2410, and activity level dropped to high (from very high) in the 1-4 and 5-14 age groups. There were 912 hospital admissions due to influenza in week 50, down from 1039 in week 49.¹

In NHS England:

NHS England has released its latest figures now, covering last week up to 14 December. It says hospitals in England are on “high alert” this week, facing down industrial action and the continuing stream of winter viruses, including the flu.

Flu cases hit 3,140 by the end of last week – the highest ever for this time of year and up 18% on the week before.But despite the rising cases, NHS England says:

“There are welcome signs that the rise in flu cases in hospital is slowing, particularly in the North West where hospital cases fell by 4% over the past week.”

This slowing, NHS England says, is believed to be down to higher vaccination rates and the public taking additional steps to protect the elderly and vulnerable.²

Why has Scotland peaked earlier? We started on 15 September while England started on 1 October 2025, 16 days later.

Shock as even Lisa Summers notices this:

Experts say there are many complicated factors that might explain why Scotland is ahead of other parts of the UK for flu this year.

It could be down to the vaccination programme starting in mid September, or possibly some acquired immunity from previous outbreaks. But they are hopeful that the trend will continue and numbers will keep declining.³

Close but there’s more:

Sources:

1. https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-18-december-2025/
2. https://news.sky.com/story/nhs-latest-flu-cases-in-england-rise-but-rate-drops-as-top-doctor-warns-were-not-out-of-the-woods-yet-13484387
3. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn5l3e023l1t

A fuller story Lisa:

Scottish Government significantly widened access to free flu vaccine to give more than twice as many, per capita, protection from worrying new mutation

First, availability in England – you can get the free NHS flu vaccine if you:

• are aged 65 or over (including those who will be 65 by 31 March 2026)
• have certain long-term health conditions
• are pregnant
• live in a care home
• are the main carer for an older or disabled person, or receive a carer’s allowance
• live with someone who has a weakened immune system

Source: https://www.nhs.uk/vaccinations/flu-vaccine/

In Scotland, significantly wider free availability is in place

This includes:

• those aged 65 and over (on or before 31 March 2025)
• those aged 18 to 64 with an eligible health condition (as defined in the chapter 19 of the Green Book)
• those who are pregnant
• those living in a long-stay residential care home or other long-stay care facility
• those living with someone who has a weakened immune system
• an unpaid or young carer
• a frontline health or social care worker
• a non-frontline NHS worker
• a poultry worker or bird handler
• an asylum seeker living in a Home Office hotel or B&B accommodation
• those experiencing homelessness
• those experiencing substance misuse
• those living in a Scottish prison

Source: https://publichealthscotland.scot/population-health/health-protection/immunisation-vaccine-and-preventable-disease/seasonal-immunisations/flu-immunisations/adult-flu-immunisations/eligible-groups/

Second, uptake-levels in key groups are already significantly lower in key >65 group in England.

For 2024-2025, early trends show Scotland with stronger uptake among over-65s (71.6% vs. England’s ~60-65% estimated based on historical patterns) – multiple sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1987603360061788291

Perhaps most indicative of the risk is the number of doses given and the contrast is shocking.

NHS Scotland has given 927 000 doses so far (down 20% on last year’s total): https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-6-november-2025/

All things being equal, we might expect the figure in England to be around 9.27 million but it was only 4.3million: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2025-to-2026-season/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-report-6-november-2025-week-45

So, less than half the Scottish uptake per capita, in England, reflecting the wider free availability, above.

Has any journalist in Scotland noticed this?

NHS Scotland nearly 30% more beds, per head, than NHS England, to cope better with future pandemics

From Acute hospital activity and NHS beds information (annual) Year ending 31 March 2025 published today:

In 2024/25, the average number of available staffed beds per day for acute specialties was 13,717 – a 0.3% decrease on the previous year (2023/24) and a 3.7% increase compared to five years ago (2019/20). 

From NHS England’s Bed Availability and Occupancy Data (KH03 collection) for Quarter 4 2024/25 (January to March 2025), published on the NHS England statistics website:

106,068 is the total number of available general and acute beds (overnight) in NHS England for Quarter 4 of 2024/25 (January to March 2025), the most recent full quarter as of September 30, 2025.

All things being equal, per head, pro rata, NHS England might be expected to have around 10 times as many beds as NHS Scotland, 137 000, but had only 106 000, 31 000 fewer.

This NHS Scotland has, per head, 29.2% more beds than NHS England.

Might that have played a part in Scotland having a far lower Covid 19 pandemic death rate?

When adjusted for population (deaths per 100,000 people), the rates were closer: England (260 per 100,000), Wales (260), Scotland (190), and Northern Ireland (170). England and Wales had the highest rates overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom

Scotland has 71% more nurses

In England there were nearly seven nurses per 1,000 people, while there were nearly 12 per 1,000 in Scotland. https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/uk-fewer-nurses-per-head-33961132

OMG if the Daily Record doesn’t attempt to hide that, it must be true!

So, 5 more than 7 per 1 000 people, is 71.4%

Sources:

1. https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/12/nhs-facing-worst-case-scenario-december-amid-super-flu-surge/
2. https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-11-december-2025/

And:

Thanks to Dorothy for alerting me to this.

According to Dr Chris Streather, who’s Medical Director for the NHS in London, on Channel 4 News last night, NHS England has vaccinated more than 1.8 million for the flu virus¹. That answer was in response to a question about vaccine denial.

Both Dorothy and I thought the same – is that all?

Why? We’ve been here before comparing stats from NHS Scotland and NHS England where the latter should be 10 times greater on anything to just be at the same level per head of population.

1.8 million in England might then be around 180 000 in Scotland, but from the Scottish Government yesterday:

New evidence from Public Health Scotland and early evidence from UKHSA shows that this year’s vaccine does a good job of preventing hospital admissions for the strains currently circulating. As of 7 December, over 1.2 million adult flu vaccines have been delivered – over 97,000 more than this point last winter. In addition, more than 470,000 children have had their vaccine, bringing the total number of flu vaccinations delivered this season to over 1.7 million.²

So, it seems, NHS Scotland may be vaccinating for flu at almost 10 times the rate as NHS England.

1.8 million jabs for England’s 58 million and 1.7 million jags for Scotland’s 5.5 million.

Sources:

1. https://www.channel4.com/news/flu-effects-would-be-exacerbated-by-unnecessary-doctors-strike-says-nhs-london-medical-director
2. https://www.gov.scot/news/resilience-committee-meets-to-discuss-winter-flu/

Dr Streather, given his job, should know what he’s talking about.