Important - I offer this as a starter for comment. I'm not, as you may know, an expert in this geopolitical field in any way.
Professor John Robertson OBA
Fifty years ago, I had to write an essay about the extent to which Karl Marx believed that individuals or powerful forces determined historical outcomes. The above quote, I thought, was a good starting point. I got a low B pass.
He seems to be saying that we can influence events but within the limits imposed on our freedom of movement by forces such as climate change, geography, pandemics, wars or global economic changes.
No Marxist he, Harold MacMillan, Tory Prime Minister in the 1950s directly experienced events that seriously constrained what he tried to do, such as the rising tide of Arab nationalisation and the unforeseen opposition of the USA, when Britain and France tried, by force, to prevent Egypt from nationalising the Suez canal.
More recently, thinking about the pathways toward Scottish independence and, as an activist and SNP member, becoming embroiled in endless arguments about what is the best thing to do, the above quotes popped back into my head. It doesn’t make me think we should stop strategizing, coming up with policies and campaigns but just that we should step back a bit at times and consider more those bigger events and the opportunities they offer us or limits they place upon us.
We often hear of the many countries which found a path to independence in the years after the Second World War. That was no coincidence. Most of those liberation movements, in India, South-East Asia, the Middle East and Africa, had not become any stronger or had better strategies by then. They simply found their imperial master, Great Britain, massively weakened, and without the military resources, men or materiel or even the will, to control them, and their subsequent path to liberation was short and straight. There were, of course, exceptions where Britain tried to hold on such as in Aden, Suez and Kenya but, in the end it could not.
Almost without exception then, men (sic) made their own history but they did not make it from the whole cloth, and unforeseen events, my dear boy, were key.
More recently, what about Quebec and Catalunya? Have they just ben unlucky in that no transforming events happened to them?
Returning to Scotland, what events might be emerging that we must understand so that we may exploit or evade them. Several already occur and we must put ourselves on the anticipated winning wide of debates.
Already, the independence movement in Scotland has become stronger by identifying with the winning side in the pandemic and the side that is now much stronger on EU membership. We know from polls that labelling our fight as ‘within the EU’ is a winner. Hopefully as we emerge from the current flu epidemic, we can point to an earlier and wider vaccination programme and to hospitals not overwhelmed as evidence of competence in government.
What are the big events happening that we need to be seen to be on the right side of?
- Russia and the connected moves toward right wing populism across Europe and notably in England.
- Shortages of gas and electricity but not in Scotland
- Shortages of water but not in Scotland
- Migration
- Climate change
- AI
What are the right sides?
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
To get Independence people need to go out and vote for it. Support for SNP and Independence is increasing.
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Missing from your excellent analysis Prof is the word ‘democracy’. We vote under an imposed system that, by design, means if we win big in the constituencies, we lose in the List. We need to aspire to a democracy where, as far as is possible, one vote equals any other vote and seats are allocated on a democratic basis. In other words, not the Bruce-Dewar ‘amended D’Hondt AMS, just D’Hondt not amended.
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‘We vote under an imposed system that, by design, means ..’
Of course you’re right to point up these systemic issues but for now the system is at it is. Arguably, there is one (simple) thing that ALL those who wish independence could and should do and that is just VOTE and at each and every democratic opportunity – local, Scottish, UK – for a pro-indy party.
How many of the c. 75% of those who opted NOT to vote in the election that Reform won last week actually support independence? And if they do – at this critical time for Scotland’s future – where were they? If there is indeed over 50% support for independence across the country is it not time for ALL supporters to demonstrate this by casting a vote at EVERY election?
It’s not a lot to ask in order to build momentum everywhere and in every way towards gaining self-determination. Or maybe too many inclined towards independence still don’t want it enough yet to make the ‘huge’ effort involved in casting a vote?
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Every empire crumbles eventually and it was Britain’s turn after WWII. Hence the Suez Canal debacle with the American empire stepping into the Middle East with its vast oil reserves. The American empire is now in the process of retrenchment and can’t sustain world hegemony. But hey, Venezuela has the biggest oil reserves. (It’s always about oil)
The EU might not last long either. They have just decided to seize 300 billion in Russian assets which is theft and will bring endless court battles and perhaps the flight of investment from Asian and Middle East sovereign funds. BRICS offers an alternative for Asia and the Global South which after all represent 80% of the world population. I would stick to joining EFTA until these internal battles are sorted.
Quebec and Catalonia did achieve greater autonomy, much greater than we in Scotland have. That possibly lowered the 2nd referendum vote in Quebec.
I agree with the comments above. We stand for democracy and sovereignty of every country. The fact that Britain and America ignore both of these principles is our biggest problem IMO.
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