Professor John Robertson OBA

While Scotland-wide polls have Reform UK in second place pushing Labour down into third place and a major loss of list MPSs, this may conceal regional variations and exaggerate their threat in some parts.

Only Paris-based, Ipsos, publish regional breakdowns with consistent scientific sampling that can be reasonably compared over time, though limited slightly by a Westminster context in one (18 June 2025) and Holyrood in the the other (10 December 2025).

The results are above and suggest different tactics for SNP campaigns in the West and South of Scotland.

Key points:

1. Reform UK, in 3rd place in both regions, is clearly less of a threat than Labour so we need to be keeping at them with all of the failures and betrayals they have made.
2. The undecided are in double figures so important and there are reasons to be optimistic about winning enough of them to be safe
3. The December Ipsos poll has the SNP strong on a number of issues which we can push on in campaigning – Standing up for Scotland’s interests 41% way ahead of Labour in second placed with only 10; Growing the economy, tackling cost of living – 24-26% – more than double Labour in second place.
4. The YouGov poll 5 November 2025 is the only other with a regional breakdown but does not ask how you would vote but rather who you would never or definitely consider voting for on a 0 to 1 score. 37% and 38% in South and West respectively would consider voting for (6-10) the SNP, at least 10 points clear of all but Reform where it’s a massive 20 points clear.
5. So, Reform UK are not a threat here. Labour and Cons remain a moderate threat which requires heavy publicised reminders of how we do and have protected with universal benefits, housing, flood defences, progressive taxation, better NHS and schools, lower crime etc and how both have betrayed their supporter’s interests. Capturing Greens requires a push in publicising our achievements in renewables, tree planting, biodiversity etc.

Comments?