Professor John Robertson OBA
From the Guardian yesterday the above dramatic headline and:
Wes Streeting has told resident doctors that strikes and a jump in flu cases over the Christmas period could be “the Jenga piece” that forces the NHS to collapse. The health secretary said the NHS faced a “challenge unlike any it has seen since the pandemic” and urged resident doctors to accept the government’s offer and end their action.
He said: “The whole NHS team is working around the clock to keep the show on the road. But it’s an incredibly precarious situation. Christmas strikes could be the Jenga piece that collapses the tower. That’s why I am appealing directly to resident doctors to accept the government’s offer.” NHS figures published on Thursday showed flu cases at a record level for the time of year after jumping 55% in a week to an average 2,660 patients in hospital each day last week.
From Public Health Scotland, three days ago, for the same date as the NHS England figures above:
Influenza activity in Scotland increased at a more moderate pace in week 49, although the high activity threshold has now been reached, earlier than previous seasons. Case numbers increased by 24% to 2331 from 1875 and there were 986 hospital admissions in week 49, up by 15% from 860; both measures have increased at slower rates than the previous week and there is, as yet, no evidence of more severe disease as measured by ICU/HDU admissions. Influenza A(H3N2) continues to dominate.
New, early seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness data show that despite concerns about the impact of a new influenza A(H3N2) drifted clade in the UK, the vaccine is providing good protection against influenza A hospitalisations in Scotland, with a 78% reduced risk of hospitalisation in ages 2–17 and 37% in those 65 and over. Similar results were observed in pooled estimates from Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, and with early season estimates produced in England.
I’m not sure why Scottish media are not comparing the two sets of information above but it does seem very newsworthy.
Why is Public Health Scotland so relaxed when per head of population flu hospitalisation is so relatively high in Scotland compared with England?
986 in Scotland would be like 9 860 in England, nearly FOUR times greater than the 2 660 they actually have, which apparently warns of imminent collapse. Is it just that the surge seems to be plateauing here or that we have more beds, doctors and nurses and, of course, cleaner hospitals after that SNP Health Secretary kept cleaning inhouse, in 2015?
Oh, yes, that ‘better vaccine strategy?’
Scottish Government significantly widened access to free flu vaccine to give more than twice as many, per capita, protection from worrying new mutation
First, availability in England – you can get the free NHS flu vaccine if you:
- are aged 65 or over (including those who will be 65 by 31 March 2026)
- have certain long-term health conditions
- are pregnant
- live in a care home
- are the main carer for an older or disabled person, or receive a carer’s allowance
- live with someone who has a weakened immune system
Source: https://www.nhs.uk/vaccinations/flu-vaccine/
In Scotland, significantly wider free availability is in place
This includes:
- those aged 65 and over (on or before 31 March 2025)
- those aged 18 to 64 with an eligible health condition (as defined in the chapter 19 of the Green Book)
- those who are pregnant
- those living in a long-stay residential care home or other long-stay care facility
- those living with someone who has a weakened immune system
- an unpaid or young carer
- a frontline health or social care worker
- a non-frontline NHS worker
- a poultry worker or bird handler
- an asylum seeker living in a Home Office hotel or B&B accommodation
- those experiencing homelessness
- those experiencing substance misuse
- those living in a Scottish prison
Second, uptake-levels in key groups are already significantly lower in key >65 group in England.
For 2024-2025, early trends show Scotland with stronger uptake among over-65s (71.6% vs. England’s ~60-65% estimated based on historical patterns) – multiple sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1987603360061788291
Perhaps most indicative of the risk is the number of doses given and the contrast is shocking.
NHS Scotland has given 927 000 doses so far (down 20% on last year’s total): https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-6-november-2025/
All things being equal, we might expect the figure in England to be around 9.27 million but it was only 4.3million: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2025-to-2026-season/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-report-6-november-2025-week-45
So, less than half the Scottish uptake per capita, in England, reflecting the wider free availability, above.
Has any journalist in Scotland noticed this?
NHS Scotland nearly 30% more beds, per head, than NHS England, to cope better with future pandemics
From Acute hospital activity and NHS beds information (annual) Year ending 31 March 2025 published today:
In 2024/25, the average number of available staffed beds per day for acute specialties was 13,717 – a 0.3% decrease on the previous year (2023/24) and a 3.7% increase compared to five years ago (2019/20).
From NHS England’s Bed Availability and Occupancy Data (KH03 collection) for Quarter 4 2024/25 (January to March 2025), published on the NHS England statistics website:
106,068 is the total number of available general and acute beds (overnight) in NHS England for Quarter 4 of 2024/25 (January to March 2025), the most recent full quarter as of September 30, 2025.
All things being equal, per head, pro rata, NHS England might be expected to have around 10 times as many beds as NHS Scotland, 137 000, but had only 106 000, 31 000 fewer.
This NHS Scotland has, per head, 29.2% more beds than NHS England.
Might that have played a part in Scotland having a far lower Covid 19 pandemic death rate?
When adjusted for population (deaths per 100,000 people), the rates were closer: England (260 per 100,000), Wales (260), Scotland (190), and Northern Ireland (170). England and Wales had the highest rates overall. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom
Scotland has 71% more nurses
In England there were nearly seven nurses per 1,000 people, while there were nearly 12 per 1,000 in Scotland. https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/uk-fewer-nurses-per-head-33961132
OMG if the Daily Record doesn’t attempt to hide that, it must be true!
So, 5 more than 7 per 1 000 people, is 71.4%
Sources:
- https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/12/nhs-facing-worst-case-scenario-december-amid-super-flu-surge/
- https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/publications/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report/viral-respiratory-diseases-in-scotland-surveillance-report-11-december-2025/
Discover more from Talking-up Scotland
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Talking-up Scotland 
Typically the top story on C4 News last evening was the ‘possible collapse’ of the NHS in England but true to form IMMEDIATELY turned to their Scottish Correspondent who tells us all Scottish hospitals are full giving once again the impression that despite the horror stories emanating from down south Scotland it appears is no better. Such is the state of our disgusting MSM.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Wes Streeting is just ramping up the fear to guilt trip the doctors. Not that I have any sympathy with the doctors mind. They still think vaccines are good for health. So do you apparently. :<)
P.S. Covid was the ‘flu rebranded as I have mentioned before.
LikeLike