Professor John Robertson OBA

Today, I asked Grok AI (x) How might an independent Scotland benefit?

You have to know a bit of the world, of history, of politics, local, national and global, before you ask AI questions. I know from comments that Tus readers are safe but I really worry about youngsters. I used to argue, well-supported by the evidence from research, that Media Studies should be core in schools but subject-based tribalism and ill-informed snobbery kept it out. With Google it became vital and with AI it becomes the most valuable thing we could do.

I know that Grok, like all AI, gives business-friendly, US and NATO-friendly, right-wing politics-favourable first answers but if you keep poking it with further questions, it will give you the facts.

Before I asked the above question, I thought about the spat between Humza Yousaf and Elon Musk and the latter’s belief that child rape grooming gangs are active in Scotland too, thanks to Scottish Labour MPs.

I was careful not to trigger ideologically-biased responses by referring to my own preference for a democratic socialist republic or to mention the SNP at all.

The answer seems to me pretty honest, evidence-based and favourable to our cause. I feel sure it can be shared as independent, research-based and very useful for us:

Economic Benefits

An independent Scotland could leverage its strong economic foundations and resources more effectively without UK-wide constraints. Since 2007, Scotland’s economy has grown faster per head than the UK’s, with productivity rising over twice as quickly.

Key sectors like renewables (47,000 jobs, £6.6bn contribution in 2022), food and drink (£7bn, 118,000 jobs), tourism (£4.8bn, 229,000 jobs), and creative industries (£5.7bn, 88,000 jobs) could benefit from tailored fiscal and trade policies.

Independence might allow re-joining the EU single market, potentially reversing Brexit’s estimated £5bn annual GDP hit to Scotland and cutting household food costs by £250 through reduced trade barriers.

Comparator small European nations (e.g., Denmark, Ireland) outperform the UK in GDP per head and investment, suggesting Scottish households could be £10,200 richer annually with optimized policies.

Additionally, full control over immigration could address labor shortages in hospitality and agriculture, exacerbated by post-Brexit visa drops.

Energy and Environmental Benefits

Scotland’s renewable leadership—generating 70% of its electricity from clean sources in 2023 and exporting £1.5bn worth—could translate to lower bills and more jobs under independent energy policy.

With the fourth-largest EU Exclusive Economic Zone, offshore wind projects like ScotWind could attract £100bn in investment, creating thousands of roles while halving CO2 emissions since devolution.

Independence would enable EU-aligned climate action, potentially accelerating net-zero goals without Westminster’s fossil fuel dependencies, and allow zonal-like pricing to reward renewable surplus regions like Scotland.

Social and Welfare Benefits

Full sovereignty over health, education, and social security could build on devolved successes, like reducing child poverty to 22% (vs. UK’s 31%) via the Scottish Child Payment, which has lifted 40,000 children out of poverty.

Free tuition, prescriptions, and expanded childcare (now 1,140 hours annually) have boosted access; independence could extend this to drugs policy and remove UK barriers like the two-child benefit cap.

The NHS has grown 26% since 2006 with better A&E performance than England; tailored migration could sustain care worker numbers (down 77% post-Brexit).

Comparator countries show higher life expectancy and lower inequality, hinting at broader wellbeing gains.

Political and Governance Benefits

Independence would end the “democratic deficit,” letting Scots elect governments fully accountable for all policies without Westminster overrides (e.g., via the Internal Market Act or austerity).

This includes a new constitution, Scottish currency, central bank, and reforms to employment law.

Scotland’s left-leaning preferences could avoid “voting left, getting right” scenarios from UK elections, shielding against conservative policies on welfare or migration.

Coherent policymaking across budgets, trade, and defense would free resources from countering UK decisions.

International Benefits

Rejoining the EU could restore free movement, boosting universities (£4.21bn from international students in 2021-22) and trade. theweek.com +1 Independence might enhance global influence through tailored foreign policy, defense, and environmental diplomacy, aligning with progressive values.

Category	Key Potential Gains	Example Comparator Impact
Economic	Resource control, EU rejoin, tailored immigration	+£10,200 household income vs. UK
Energy/Env.	Lower bills, £100bn renewables investment	70% clean power, halved emissions
Social	Poverty reduction, free services expansion	40,000 fewer poor children
Governance	Full accountability, policy coherence	End to Westminster vetoes
International	EU single market access	Reversed £5bn Brexit GDP loss

These benefits are drawn from recent Scottish Government analysis and expert commentary as of late 2025, amid renewed debate post-UK political shifts. gov.scot +1

Sources for Benefits of an Independent Scotland

The information in my previous response draws from a range of official reports, analyses, and data sources as of late 2025. Below, I’ve compiled the key references, grouped by category, with links and brief descriptions. These are based on recent Scottish Government publications, economic analyses, and polls. Where possible, I’ve noted the specific data points they support.

Economic Benefits

• Scottish Government (2023-2025). Building a New Scotland: A Stronger Economy with Independence.
  Outlines growth in GDP per head (10.3% Scotland vs. 6.8% UK since 2007), sector contributions (renewables £6.6bn, food/drink £7bn, tourism £4.8bn, creative £5.7bn), Brexit GDP hit (£5bn annually), and comparator nations’ outperformance (households £10,200 richer).
  Full report gov.scot +6
• Business for Scotland (2025). 10 Economic Benefits for a Wealthier Independent Scotland.
  Discusses fiscal flexibility, SME export support, and childcare expansion creating 35,000 jobs (£700m tax revenue boost).
  Full article businessforscotland.com
• Scottish Government (2025). Brexit and Scotland: June 2023 Update (with 2025 revisions).
  Estimates Brexit’s £4bn long-run GDP reduction for Scotland and £3bn annual public revenue loss.
  Full briefing gov.scot +3
• Believe in Scotland (2023, updated 2025). Ten Reasons to Be Confident of Independent Scotland’s Economic Future.
  Covers EU rejoining benefits, university funding (£4.21bn from international students), and tax policy control.
  Full report believeinscotland.org

Energy and Environmental Benefits

• Scottish Government (2025). Energy Statistics for Scotland – Q4 2024.
  Reports 70% renewable electricity in 2023, £1.5bn exports, and halved CO2 emissions since devolution.
  Full data gov.scot
• Fraser of Allander Institute (2025). The Economic Impact of Scotland’s Renewable Energy Sector – 2025 Update.
  Details 47,000 jobs and £100bn potential offshore wind investment via ScotWind.
  Full report gov.scot (cross-referenced in gov.scot endnotes)
• Business for Scotland (2025). How an Independent Scotland Can Become One of the Richest Energy Nations.
  Emphasizes EU alignment for North Sea networks and export job creation (tens of thousands).
  Full article businessforscotland.com
• Wikipedia (2025 update). Renewable Energy in Scotland.
  Confirms 113% renewable consumption in 2022 and export trends.
  Article en.wikipedia.org +1

Social and Welfare Benefits

• Scottish Government (2025). Child Poverty Modelling: Update.
  Estimates Scottish Child Payment lifts 40,000 children from poverty (22% rate vs. UK’s 31%), with policies keeping 70,000 out in 2025-26.
  Full modelling gov.scot +2
• Save the Children UK (2025). The Scottish Child Payment is Helping Families.
  Notes 4pp poverty drop in 2023-24 due to payment, contrasting UK trends.
  Full blog savethechildren.org.uk
• Fraser of Allander Institute (2025). No Shortcuts to Scotland’s Child Poverty Targets.
  Projects 30,000-40,000 children out of poverty via Child Payment in 2025-26.
  Full analysis fraserofallander.org
• Scottish Government (2025). A Fresh Start with Independence.
  Covers NHS growth (26% since 2006), free tuition/prescriptions/childcare (1,140 hours), and post-Brexit care worker shortages (77% drop).
  Full paper gov.scot +2

Political and Governance Benefits

• Scottish Government (2025). A Fresh Start with Independence.
  Discusses ending democratic deficit, new constitution, currency, and policy coherence (e.g., no Westminster overrides).
  Full paper gov.scot +1

International Benefits

• Scottish Government (2025). Independence: What You Need to Know.
  Highlights EU rejoining for free movement, trade, and reversing Brexit losses.
  Full summary gov.scot
• Scottish National Party (2023, updated 2025). A Stronger Economy with Independence.
  Covers EU single market opportunities and exporter support.
  Full summary snp.org

Polls and Overall Context

• YouGov (March-November 2025). Various Scottish Snapshots.
  Shows support near 50/50 (e.g., 46% Yes/54% No in March; 49% Yes/51% No in November).
  March poll statista.com +2; November poll yougov.co.uk
• Wikipedia (2025 update). Opinion Polling on Scottish Independence.
  Aggregates polls showing consistent 50/50 split.
  Article en.wikipedia.org

These sources are primarily from pro-independence perspectives (e.g., Scottish Government), but cross-verified with neutral analyses like Fraser of Allander and OBR. Realization of benefits depends on negotiations; for balance, see critical views in Economics Observatory (2024) economicsobservatory.com or IFS (2023) ifs.org.uk. If you’d like deeper dives or additional sources, let me know!