Professor John Robertson OBA

I don’t think I’ve commented on BBC Scotland’s Debate Night before. I’m guessing it is not much watched.

However, last night I was taken by the astonishing lies by the two Unionists, Pauline McNeill (Labour), Justice Committee Convenor (Remember that) and Brian Whittle (Con).

First the Justice Committee Convenor’s simple comment in passing above – surely she has seen the figures?

From Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2024-25¹ published in June 2025:

There is, in these figures, a sharp decrease in non-sexual extreme violence and an apparent increase in sex offences but there is a great deal of evidence, admittedly from England & Wales, that the latter is largely an increase in reporting and not in offending:

The increase in recorded sex crimes in the UK (primarily England and Wales, where most data is aggregated) is predominantly driven by improved reporting and recording practices, rather than a clear rise in actual offending rates. Official sources like the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) emphasize this distinction. Police-recorded figures have risen sharply over the past decade, but victim surveys—which are less influenced by reporting biases—show stable or only modestly increasing prevalence of sexual assaults.²

Evidence Against a Pure “Offending” Increase

• CSEW Stability: Victimisation rates haven’t spiked like recorded figures; the modest uptick since 2015 aligns with broader societal awareness, not a crime wave. ons.gov.uk
• Regional Variations: Rates differ by police force (e.g., Cleveland: 4.4 per 1,000 in 2023/24 vs. national 3.1), often tied to local recording improvements rather than uniform offending surges. statista.com
• Pandemic Context: Recorded offences dipped in 2020-2021 (lockdowns reduced opportunities) but rebounded with reporting campaigns, not post-lockdown chaos.
• Public Discourse: Recent X discussions echo this, attributing rises to #MeToo and police sensitivity training (e.g., 10x reporting increase since 2000), though some speculate on underreported historical issues.

On murder, attempted murder and serious assaults, more easily evaluated, there is a sharp decrease which surely she knew about.

As the debate moved on to taxation, Whittle made a determined effort to mislead:

If you earn close to £30 000, in this country, you are taxed higher than the rest of the United Kingdom and if you are not getting more service for that, you are not having that money in your pocket that you should have, for me, we cannot have tax rises.

First that ‘more service’ bit?

• More prison officers per head so no accidental release of sex offenders here?
• Lower crime overall, lower violent crime, lower murder rate?
• Shorter waiting lists across the NHS?
• More GPs midwives, fire officers, police officers per head?
• Falling drug deaths and reduced load on NHS?
• Free tuition, prescriptions and bus passes for students and apprentices?
• Cleaner water and no leaking landfill sites?
• Better building regulation so no Grenfell and no mass flooding?
• Sheesh, I could go on and on!

Second paying more tax?

From the Institute for Fiscal Studies in February 2023:

With regards to income tax, the Scottish Government has the ability to set income tax rates and bands on income other than from dividend or interest payments, with the exception of the personal allowance. It has used these powers to introduce a new system with more bands and different rates compared with that used in the rest of Great Britain (rGB, i.e. England and Wales), with the consequence that lower earners pay a little less in tax, whilst higher earners pay quite a bit more. 

Households towards the top of the distribution will be net losers as a result of the income tax changes, which will cost the richest tenth of Scottish households almost £1,400 per year on average (1.2% of their income). In contrast, poorer households have gained from the increase and big expansion of the Scottish child payment. The poorest tenth of Scottish households will gain the equivalent of almost £260 per year, or 2% of their incomes, on average, from the combined effect of the benefits and income tax changes. Households with children in approximately the bottom third of the income distribution will gain, on average, around £1,200 per year – around 4%–5% of their incomes.⁴

So, only the top 10% will lose out much and a good 33% of the less well off will do better under the SNP?

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2024-25/documents/
2. Multiple sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1986380071653773501
3. https://ifs.org.uk/publications/analysis-scottish-tax-and-benefit-reforms

Returning to murder rates:

Between 2023-24 and 2024-25, recorded crimes of Murder and culpable homicide decreased by 24% from 58 to 44 crimes [8.1 per million]. There was a 27% decrease over the 10 year period between 2015-16 and 2024-25, from 60 to 44 crimes.¹

The homicide rate in England and Wales for the year ending March 2025 was 8.8 per one million people, based on 535 homicide offences recorded by the police.²

That 0.7 per million looks small as a decimal number but it represents 51 more murders in England & Wales.

How does this compare with other European countries?

Denmark’s population is 5.97 million, 9.7% greater than Scotland’s 5.44 million.

In 2024/2025, there were 44 murders in Scotland and 48 in Denmark³, 9.1% more than in Scotland.

The murder rate in Denmark, 0.804 cases per million, is lower than in Scotland, 0.808 cases per million, but not statistically significantly different.

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2024-25/pages/non-sexual-crimes-of-violence/
2. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/bulletins/crimeinenglandandwales/yearendingmarch2025
3. https://www.statbank.dk/statbank5a/selectvarval/saveselections.asp