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Professor John Robertson OBA

Shelter (Scotland) on BBC Scotland yesterday with the supposed research finding that Scotland needs 15 693 affordable homes per year compared with the 8 188 funded by the Scottish Government in 2024 is based on:

Research carried out by academics at the University of Liverpool, and Sheffield Hallam University, jointly commissioned by SFHA, Shelter Scotland and the Chartered Institute for Housing

So, two English universities commissioned by Shelter, HQ in London, EC1V 9HU and the Chartered Institute for Housing, HQ in Coventry. Given the nature of the project did they consider a Scottish University with staff more familiar with housing and other social policy areas in Scotland, now devolved these last three decades and more?

For example, had the research team read this?

Differences between English and Scottish Social Housing systems, published in a review by the Wheatley Group in May 2024:

Social housing is more prevalent in Scotland than England, comprising 23% of all Scottish housing stock (11% RSLs / 12% Local Authorities), compared to 16.4% in England (10.1% RPs / 6.3% Local Authorities). Scotland has similar rate of owner-occupation than England, 63.7% compared to 64.1%. Statistics based on March 2022 returns

One of the most important powers devolved to the Scottish Government is the ability to permit the continued payment of housing benefit from the Department of Work and Pensions directly to housing associations (“HAs”). This option is also available for all tenants on Universal Credit whereby Scottish HAs can receive UC payments directly for rental payments in contrast to English RPs. This means Scottish HAs have a significant risk mitigation not available to their English counterparts.

The Scottish Parliament’s Housing (Scotland) Act 2014 provided for Right to Buy to be abolished in Scotland from 31 July 2016.

New build grant levels significantly higher than England (social rent benchmark £91.2k; mid-market rent benchmark £62.5k; additional funding of up to £20.2k per unit for zero/low carbon heating, working-from-home space, access to outdoor space/balconies, EV charging points, broadband etc.

Bedroom tax effectively abolished in Scotland through Scottish Government subsidy.

More traditional, low risk business model based on social housing. No build for sale.

Building regulations were changed in Scotland in 2005 making it mandatory for builders to ensure any external cladding inhibits fire spreading. While the UK Government’s Independent Expert Panel on Fire Safety published consolidated advice on building safety in January 2020, which was subsequently withdrawn in January 2022 with the housing sector awaiting an update later this year (2022), Scottish building and fire regulations, standards and guidance are devolved.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.wheatley-group.com/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/236413/English-and-Scottish-Social-Housing-Systems-update-May24.pdf#:~:text=3.3%20Social%20housing%20is%20more%20prevalent%20in%20Scotland,of%20owner-occupation%20than%20England%2C%2063.7%25%20compared%20to%2064.1%25.

More important, I feel sure it never occurred to the researchers, in Yorkshire, to wonder how well Yorkshire, population 5.23 million, very close to Scotland’s 5.5 million, is doing in building affordable housing. It looks quite difficult to do so but AI has a go:

Exact figures for affordable houses built in Yorkshire in 2024 are incomplete or vary by source, but available data provides some insight. According to the City of York Council, there was a shortfall of 1,256 affordable homes in York over the last three years (2021–2024), with only 463 affordable homes delivered in total during that period. This suggests an average of about 154 affordable homes per year in York, though specific 2024 data isn’t isolated in the source.

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/heritage-and-retro/heritage/shortfall-of-more-than-1200-affordable-homes-built-in-york-over-last-three-years-4567537

For the broader Yorkshire region, precise 2024 completion numbers are not fully detailed in the provided references. However, Yorkshire Housing reported building over 2,100 homes as part of their development program, with another 2,000 in the pipeline, though these figures span multiple years and include various tenures (rent, low-cost ownership, and market sale). Additionally, the City of York Council noted ongoing developments in 2024, such as 517 homes (201 affordable) and 315 homes (64 affordable), but completion dates are unclear, with some projects like Ordnance Lane expected to be visible by late 2024.

https://www.yorkshirehousing.co.uk/about-us/our-developments/ https://www.york.gov.uk/housing/affordable-housing-developments/1

Given the lack of a comprehensive 2024-specific figure for all of Yorkshire, an estimate based on York’s data and partial regional reports suggests a few hundred affordable homes were likely completed in 2024, but this is far below regional needs. For a precise number, further data from local councils or housing associations would be required.

https://www.york.gov.uk/AffordableHousingCompletions https://www.york.gov.uk/AffordableHousingDevelopments

So, 8 188 in Scotland and only a few hundred in Yorkshire? Let’s be generous and say 400?

So, Scotland is delivering around 20 times as many affordable homes as Yorkshire?