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Professor John Robertson OBA

As illegal migration becomes a priority issue for Scots in a recent poll, the SNP and the wider independence movement needs to adapt to this evidence of a trend before it enables too much Reform UK electoral success in May 2026.

This trend is not surprising. It’s a simple consequence of media coverage of protests outside hotels housing illegal migrants, the anti-immigrant drift in the other parties fearful of Reform UK and the BBC ‘s shameful promotion of Nigel Farage – 38 times on Question Time.

I’m NOT suggesting we need follow that disturbing trend but we can, nevertheless talk with determination about controlling illegal immigration and develop clear ideas for how we do it while still welcoming legal immigration from Europe when we re-join the EU.

Why might we be better able to control illegal immigration?

First, the potential advantages from a Grok AI question.

A quick aside on Grok, the x/twitter AI - The word comes from Robert Heinlein's SF thriller Stranger in a Strange Land novel and means understanding something deeply. I'd worried it might be an Afrikaaner word for something unpleasant. 🙂

1. Autonomous Border Policies: Independence would allow Scotland to set its own immigration laws, separate from the UK’s Home Office. Scotland could tailor policies to its needs, potentially focusing on stricter enforcement or more targeted border controls. For example, the Scottish National Party (SNP) has historically advocated for a more welcoming immigration system, but an independent Scotland could prioritize enforcement if public or political will shifted.
2. Smaller Geography: Scotland’s smaller landmass (78,387 km² vs. UK’s 243,610 km²) and fewer entry points (e.g., major ports like Glasgow, Aberdeen, and Edinburgh airports) could make monitoring borders logistically simpler than for the UK as a whole, which includes busy entry points like Dover.
3. Devolved Powers Already in Place: Scotland already manages some aspects of migration (e.g., the Scottish Visa Pilot scheme proposed in 2020). Independence could expand this control, allowing for customized visa systems or deportation policies.

All pretty accurate I’d say and much of it actionable in the ways suggested.

AI tends always to offer balancing argument, as it should, but all of it was reasonably easy to counter (in bold italics):

Potential Challenges

1. Border with England: A hard border with England (a 96-mile land border) could complicate immigration control. If Scotland joined the EU or adopted looser immigration policies, it might become a backdoor entry point to the UK, requiring significant border infrastructure (e.g., checkpoints, customs). The UK’s experience with the Northern Ireland protocol shows how complex such borders can be. A 96 mile border with high ground behind and few roads across it would be relatively easy to police. As for a back-door entry, crossing the English Channel is a dawdle compared to coming all the way up the wild North Sea coast to St Abbs or the at times terrifying route up the West to Port Logan.
2. Resource Constraints: As a smaller nation (population ~5.5 million), Scotland might lack the resources for robust immigration enforcement. The UK Border Force currently has ~8,000 staff and a budget of £1.2 billion (2023 figures). Scotland would need to build a comparable agency, which could strain its economy, especially early in independence. An independent Scotland would soon be far wealthier than rUK and well-able to fund immigration control system which as above would be a far more manageable task.
3. EU Membership Ambitions: The SNP’s goal of rejoining the EU could mean adopting Schengen Area rules, which allow free movement across EU borders. This might reduce Scotland’s ability to control immigration from EU countries, potentially offsetting gains in controlling non-EU illegal immigration. Nobody is concerned about legal migration from EU countries to staff our hospitals and hotels. Many of those who voted to leave the EU in 2016 stupidly or ill-informed by the media, thought they were voting to keep out migrants from Africa and Asia.
4. Data Gaps: There’s limited data on illegal immigration specifically to Scotland, as UK-wide stats dominate. In 2022, the UK recorded ~45,000 small boat crossings, mostly to England. Scotland’s northern geography makes it less likely as a primary entry point, but independence could shift migration patterns, especially if policies diverge from the UK’s. Scotland’s northern geography makes it less likely as a primary entry point? Indeed, see maps above, we’re not moving.

So, quickly, time to adjust the message before we lose even some SNP voters to Reform UK.