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By stewartb

“To put it bluntly, educational outcomes are a source of major concern in Wales” (Education Policy Institute, July 2025).

When the BBC News website published an article headlined ‘Pass rates up for Scottish pupils in latest exam results’ on August 5, it reported (but did not headline) that there had been a reduction in the attainment gap: ‘The SQA said the attainment gap – between the level of qualifications achieved by children from the most affluent and the least affluent areas – narrowed at National 5, Higher, and Advanced Higher levels.’

In Scotland, according to UCAS, the university admissions service: ‘The number of young people from the most deprived areas who secured university or college places increased by more than 1,000, rising to 2,060.’ This from UCAS was also mentioned in the BBC article (but not headlined).

Of course the BBC shared the views of detractors, including the British Labour Party’s Scottish education spokeswoman, Pam Duncan-Glancy: “The SNP has gone from promising to close the attainment gap entirely to congratulating itself for the most incremental progress.”

As we approach the 2026 Holyrood election and campaigning ramps up, the British Labour Party will be working even harder than usual to convince voters that Scotland is crap. They will assert a need for ‘change’, for Anas Sarwar to be FM. However, the more Labour relentlessly frames Scotland in a negative way – aided by media allies who also judge that gaslighting is the way to preserve the Union – it seems relevant and reasonable to consider the track record of the British Labour Party in Wales. What is the legacy of Labour in Cardiff governing with ONLY devolved powers for what is now c. 26 continuous years?

Educational outcomes

New research results from the London-based Education Policy Institute (EPI) focus on post-16 educational outcomes across the four nations of the UK.

Source: Robson et al (July 2025) Comparing inequality and outcomes across post-16 education in the UK – Summary report  Education Policy Institute and SKOPE report (https://epi.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Comparing-inequality-and-outcomes-across-post-16-education-in-the-UK.pdf )

(The EPI describes itself as ‘an independent, impartial, and evidence-based research institute that promotes high quality education outcomes, regardless of social background.’ SKOPE is a multi-disciplinary research centre based at the University of Oxford.)

The EPI report views educational outcomes in (imperfect) Scotland in a relatively favourable light (see below). Alongside, it states this about post-16 education in Wales: ‘One unfortunate recurring theme of our analysis is the lower levels of education participation and outcomes amongst young people in Wales. This is visible in the lower share of adults and young people with Level 3 qualifications, as well as higher levels of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET). This remains true when focusing on those from poorer backgrounds, suggesting this is not just about higher levels of poverty in Wales. … To put it bluntly, educational outcomes are a source of major concern in Wales. This is likely to lead to lower skills levels and lower productivity, which could hold back economic growth. It is not possible to isolate exactly which policies or institutions are driving these concerning trends in outcomes. … The poor set of outcomes in Wales appear to be longstanding.’ (my emphasis. Note: NEET = not in education, employment or training; ‘Level 3’ is equivalent to an A Level qualification.)

Education and training are devolved. And to repeat, the British Labour Party has been in government in Cardiff now for 26 years!

On socio-economic inequalities

The EPI report acknowledges that across all nations, young people from working-class backgrounds are far less likely to achieve Level 3 or degree-level qualifications than their peers from professional backgrounds. However, it reports marked national differences:

‘Such inequalities are widest in Wales — driven by particularly low attainment and stagnating higher education participation, especially among boys — and smallest in Scotland, where overall attainment is higher across all groups.’

We learn that in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, about 85 per cent of young adults from a professional background achieve Level 3 qualifications or higher. This compares with about 72 per cent for those from intermediate backgrounds in England and Northern Ireland, and about 60 per cent for those from working class backgrounds. These figures were lowest in Wales for those from intermediate backgrounds (68 per cent) and working-class backgrounds (56 per cent).

Adding: ’Similar gaps were evident in Scotland, except that children from all backgrounds were 7-9 percentage points more likely to achieve Level 3 qualifications or higher for all parental occupational backgrounds. This again reflects the generally high levels of participation in education in Scotland.’

‘There are further specific concerns with regards to the low level of higher education participation in Wales. Welsh boys have the lowest levels of higher education participation across all nations. Remarkably, this has barely grown at all in the last 25 years according to our research and is now lower than it was six years ago.’

Qualifications and associated pathways: on recent trends (between 2014 and 2022) in the share of young adults (aged 22-30) with Level 3 qualifications or higher across the four nations, there is an increasing share across all four nations, with the highest levels in Scotland and persistently lower shares in Wales.’ (See the EPI’s Figure 3 below:

The EPI’s  Figure 4 below charts the share of young adults with Level 3 qualifications for

each nation, given their parent’s occupational background. In England, Wales and Northern Ireland, about 85 per cent of young adults from a professional background achieve Level 3 qualifications or higher. About 72 per cent do so from intermediate backgrounds in England and Northern Ireland, but only about 60 per cent for those from working class backgrounds. These figures were lowest in Wales for those from intermediate backgrounds (68 per cent) and working-class backgrounds (56 per cent).

The EPI report states: ‘Similar gaps were evident in Scotland, except that children from all backgrounds were 7-9 percentage points more likely to achieve Level 3 qualifications or higher for all parental occupational backgrounds. This again reflects the generally the high levels of participation in education in Scotland.’

Other findings

Resources: the report identifies as a recurring theme, particularly highlighted by post-16 E&T providers across all four nations: ‘the constrained resources the sector has faced for decades’. Unlike England’s government, the responsible governments in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh lack the clout – the powers – to make game-changing shifts in resourcing of public services. Unlike England’s government, the responsible governments in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh aways have to be mindful of ‘taking from Peter to pay more to Paul’!

Competition amongst providers: the report acknowledges an explicit emphasis on a ‘systems-based approach’ in Scotland and Wales whereas in England, and to a lesser extent Northern Ireland, there has been ‘an explicit emphasis on market logic. The government’s role is seen as managing the market and maintaining market conditions through regulation with minimal centrally managed coordination, creating a more competitive environment between further education (FE) and higher education (HE).’

The report’s authors note: ‘Our findings have shown increasing criticism of this market-based approach from a wide range of E&T stakeholders, including E&T providers (in both FE and HE) and employers.’ And they recommend a ‘Move from competition to coordination and the development of place-based, integrated tertiary education systems’ noting ‘There is a clear trajectory towards holistic, tertiary education based policy making in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland as well as signals of interest for England from the UK Government in a tertiary framing. This should involve an overt shift from market logic to systems thinking and a move from competition to coordination as the mechanism for driving quality, ensuring economic needs are met, and supporting individual career aspirations.’

End note

I’ve always appreciated the motivation of Talking Up Scotland. Its inherent positivity is a much needed counter to the carping, the negativity about our country and its institutions so typical of statements from British Labour Party politicians and their allies in the mainstream media. Their (tactical) negativity to save the Union has reached such a state that the term ‘gaslighting’ seems wholly justified.

So this needs to be said, for the avoidance of doubt. I take no pleasure in highlighting negatives from third party research on education – or for that matter on health services, poverty, the economy etc. – in Wales. My motivation is ONLY to call-out the hypocrisy and hubris of the British Labour Party’s messaging towards voters in Scotland: according to The National (August 19) the latest example of hubris is Labour “Ready To Deliver Scotland’s New Direction”. To become more like Wales after 26 years of ‘benefit’ from Labour governing in Cardiff with (only) devolved powers?