Professor John Robertson OBA
From Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: July 2025 published today, some key points getting no media attention:
Public perception of local crime rate at a similar level to 2008-09. The SCJS found that over two-thirds (71%) of adults in 2023-24 said that the crime rate in their local area had decreased or stayed the same over the last couple of years. This figure has fallen from 76% in 2021-22 and is at a similar level to 2008/09 and the pre-covid position in 2019-20.
This is both disturbing and contradictory.
Why? From Grok AI:
Since 2008/09, violent crime in Scotland has significantly decreased, with various sources reporting a substantial decline over the period. According to the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS), the proportion of adults experiencing violent crime dropped from 4.1% in 2008/09 to 1.7% in 2021/22, representing a 58% fall in violent crime victimization. The SCJS also estimates that the volume of violent crime incidents fell by 30% between 2008/09 and 2010/11, with a further 39% decline from 2010/11 to 2021/22, contributing to an overall downward trend over the 15-year period.
Police-recorded data supports this trend, showing a 22% reduction in non-sexual crimes of violence since the peak in 2006/07, although there has been a 9% increase from 2014/15 to 2023/24 (from 65,701 to 71,463). Specifically, from 2008/09 to 2017/18, recorded violent crime decreased by 23%, and hospital admissions due to assault dropped by 49% from 2009/10 to 2017/18, reinforcing the decline in serious violent incidents. Homicides have also seen an 8% decrease over the last 10 years, with 57 victims recorded in 2023/24, a 10% decrease from 2014/15.
Sources at: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1950871320679403830
So, crime in Scotland has plummeted but fear of crime remains high. What could be causing that?
This? A TV drama writer thinks:
I know let’s do a TV drama series about a family moving from a low crime area moving back to a high crime area and see how that traumatises a family. Then get a gun-toting grandad to fix things for them. Where should we do it. Glasgow! Mean city isn’t it?
Nope.
Which UK cities have the highest murder rates?
London, Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool, Belfast.
Is Glasgow dangerous these days?
See:
Glasgow, once dubbed the “murder capital of Europe,” has seen a dramatic reduction in violent crime since the early 2000s. The Scottish Violence Reduction Unit (SVRU), established in 2005, adopted a public health approach, leading to a 65% drop in homicides and a 69% reduction in knife-related incidents from 2006 to 2016. Between 2008-09 and 2017-18, serious assaults and attempted murders fell by 35% in Scotland, with 89% of this reduction attributed to Glasgow and the west of Scotland. https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2017/dec/03/how-scotland-reduced-knife-deaths-among-young-people
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
It is significant that while people generally rate their own home area as ‘safe’, when asked about Glasgow as a whole or Scotland as a whole, they tend to say that there are places with ‘serious crime problems’.
The reason is simple – their experience of other areas is not a lived one. They form their perceptions from what they read, hear or see in the media. Each evening, STV News for example begins with John Mackay telling us how shite Scotland is.
There is a parallel here with perceptions of schools. Most parents and students tend to have a favourable view of their own school. But, when asked about other schools they tend to give ‘blackboard jungle’ descriptions.
The media, fed by lurid tales from the teacher unions, mainly provide stories about indiscipline, violence, absenteeism, poor attainment etc. Although most teachers in any school tend to think that they and their colleagues are doing a reasonably good job, in the negative atmosphere of the staffroom only disparaging comments about the school are permitted. To say anything positive is to invite scorn and opprobrium from the voluble clique of nay sayers.
As an example, our local secondary school had a significant refurbishment and a well-respected member of staff was asked by the local media how good the refurbishment had been and gave a positive, praising response, which actually accorded with the impressions gained by parents who had been able to visit the refurbished buildings. However, the local negative staffroom clique was pure bealin. They called a union meeting which ‘slated’ the colleague for making such a statement, passed a motion which said that the refurbishment was ‘worse than useless’ and sent this to the local media.
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‘The reason is simple – their experience of other areas is not a lived one. They form their perceptions from what they read, hear or see in the media. Each evening, STV News for example begins with John Mackay telling us how shite Scotland is.’
Just so
John
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OF COURSE THEIR IS ONLY ONE REASON FOR THIS LABOUR.AND MORE GUILTY THE TORIES
BOTH HAVE BEEN NEGLIGENT. FOR 20 YEARS
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ALL PUBLIC SERVICE MASONIC SUPPORTERS
ARE NASONS AND STEEPED IN OUTRIGHT HATRED AN BIGOTRY
ALL GENUINE SCOTS SHOULD GET OUT ON THE NEXT MARCH AGAINST
ALL. ORANGE AN BLUE THUGS
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