Professor John Robertson OBA

From YouGov‘s most recent UK-wide poll, we see the SNP at 40%, the Conservatives dead in the water in Scotland, Labour weak and Reform UK at barely half the level of support in England and Wales.

Only a sub-poll, I know, but this repeats their 16 June poll results, three weeks ago:

YouGov can be trusted in these UK wide polls to reasonably accurately represent the actual SNP strength because , unlike in their Scotland-only polls, they have not adjusted the sample to reflect the 2014 referendum result and to repeatedly put SNP support in the mid 30s.

Replicated in 2026, an SNP vote at around 40% would be very successful in terms of their size in parliament.

‘What about Hamilton?‘, I hear some say.

It isn’t a ‘bell-weather’ seat and given the distorting effect of the unique presence of the Orange Order there, we can ignore it for the outlier it is and will be.