By stewartb – a long read

In what follows, we report credible UK sources stating that Scotland has ‘vast natural resources’; has ‘one of the most important renewable generation centres in Europe’ off its east coast; through just one offshore transmission cable, Scotland has already supplied from surplus enough electricity to ‘power all the homes in Wales’ over a five year period; with five more offshore cables due to be laid with capacity to transmit enough electricity from Scotland to power another 10 million homes (for sources see below).  Given all this, will the economy of energy-rich Scotland in Union benefit –  be transformed – relative to energy-hungry and energy-importing England? 

How to VALORISE? – ‘to enhance or try to enhance the price, value, or status of [an asset] by organized and usually governmental action’ (Merriam Webster Dictionary)

Despite this southward transfer of electricity in excess of what Scotland consumes –  often referred to casually as an ‘export’ but one with none of the benefits that a high value export brings to the economy and international financial standing of normal independent nation-states – Scotland will bear higher energy costs than necessary. Moreover, Scotland is set to share the costs (including opportunity costs) of further nuclear power generation in England plus the long-lasting legacy of toxic waste. If Anglo-British politicians ever govern in Edinburgh, we will see nuclear power stations built in Scotland. And after new nuclear plants are installed here, Scotland in Union will still have an energy system and market designed for England’s needs and wants, not Scotland’s! 

(Ever been ‘puzzled’ by how those of a neo-liberal persuasion rile against increasing the national debt present in a spreadsheet as this debt – so the argument goes – passes on a harmful legacy to our children and grandchildren. This is framed as ethically unacceptable! Yet they never seem to reflect in similar terms on the legacy of increasing the volume of the UK’s nuclear waste and all that lies in the toxic dump that is Sellafield!)

Lessons from history

Candidly, if any nation should be acutely aware of issues impacting the valorisation of energy assets it is Scotland! Voters in Scotland today should compare and contrast the economic and related social outcomes and impacts arising from oil & gas production offshore Scotland in Union to the legacy of a similar nature and scale of resource exploited by the independent nation-state of Norway. The difference between Scotland and Norway is marked: fundamentally, what has made the difference is AGENCY! And without it – and soon – Scotland’s population and the children and grandchildren of today’s voters will see history repeated. Another transformational opportunity – from indigenous renewable energy assets – squandered by adherence to Westminster governments.

Talking up Scotland’s energy resources

This is to share a raft of public statements unearthed from ‘serious’ commercial and institutional actors in the UK’s energy market.

National Energy System Operator (NESO) – established by the UK’s 2023 Energy Act as an ‘independent system planner and operator to help accelerate Great Britain’s energy transition’.

See https://www.neso.energy/publications/electricity-ten-year-statement-etys/electricity-transmission-network-requirements/scottish-boundaries  

It states: ‘Scotland has vast natural resources, which means there is a steep projected increase in renewable-generated electricity. However, the transmission system must develop to facilitate this increase in many areas where it’s currently limited.

‘Over the next 10 years, rapid growth in renewable-generated electricity in Scotland will mainly be attributed to offshore wind. This will cause far greater power transfer requirements across the Scottish boundaries, increasing the network reinforcement needs in some areas. Generation capacity in Scotland heavily exceeds demand, thus Scotland will be expected to export power into England most of the time except during periods of prolonged low wind, where the reverse may occur.’ (The ‘Scottish boundaries’ are associated with electricity being transmitted out from Scotland.) 

(Of course with the agency of an independent nation-state, Scotland could mitigate the the negative impact of ‘prolonged low wind’ . It could make and incentivise investments in: a) increased electricity storage capacity – battery and pump storage hydro; b) development and use of tidal power to generate (predictable) electricity; c) a ramping up of localised (off-grid) generation/utilisation schemes. It could: d) step-down  exploration, production and use of indigenous fossil fuels at a pace that suits specifically Scotland’s economic transition to net zero. And it could e) work to establish a two-way interconnector with mainland Europe, with landfall in Scotland. (Notably, all the UK’s interconnectors with mainland Europe presently have landfalls in England.)

The NESO document adds: ‘Scotland’s current winter peak gross demand is just over 4GW and remains below 5GW in 2030 across all FES pathways. The generation capacity in Scotland today is just under 20GW, this is set to more than double – rising to approximately 45 GW in the Holistic Transition pathway by 2030. Across all three FES pathways, the generation capacity of fossil fuel in Scotland reaches zero between 2035 – 2040.’  (FES = Future Energy Scenarios.)

My reading of NESO’s assessment here is that Scotland will resource England’s economy  through capacity to ‘export’ (by 2030) eight times the amount of electricity generated from offshore wind that will be actually be needed in Scotland – generation capacity 45GW, Scotland’s usage c.5GW, transfer from Scotland southwards 40GW.  

How to valorise Scotland’s offshore wind assets in ways that increase demand from within Scotland, where such an. increase is associated with the availability of abundant and competitively priced electricity to foster industrial development in Scotland?

Western Link

This bidirectional HVDC cable running largely offshore, connects Hunterston with a landfall on the north Wales/England border. It’s been operating since 2017.

See https://www.spenergynetworks.co.uk/pages/western_hvdc_link.aspx and https://www.spenergynetworks.co.uk/news/pages/western_hvdc_link_celebrates_its_five_year_anniversary.aspx   

We learn that the Western Link: ‘…. boosts the transmission of energy between Scotland and Wales and England. It helps maximise the use of Scottish renewable energy throughout the UK’.

Emphasising the bi-directional nature of the connection: ‘This link also makes a significant contribution to security of supply by effectively doubling Scotland’s import capacity.’  OK, but – and as acknowledged by other sources (below) – enabling ‘imports’ of electricity to energy-rich Scotland is not the basis of the decision to invest in the Western Link!

More on the Western Link for perspective: it ‘has transmitted over 30,000GWh of electricity during its first five years of operation – enough to power all the homes in Wales for the same period.’

Source: https://www.nationalgrid.com/media-centre/press-releases/go-ahead-electricity-superhighway 

And: ‘The project had required an investment of €1,200 million and has made possible (sic) to transmit renewable energy generated in Scotland to homes and businesses in Wales and England, while increasing the interconnection capacity by over 2,200 megawatts (MW), enough to supply the electrical demand of more than four million homes every year.’

Source https://www.iberdrola.com/about-us/what-we-do/smart-grids/western-link 

Also: ‘With the huge potential of growing renewable energy both being connected and planned to be connected in Scotland, the Western Link is delivering long term benefits to our customers while simultaneously supporting the UK Government’s ambitions of decarbonising our economy, and ultimately enabling Net Zero carbon emissions.’

‘Whilst electrical power is often expected to flow from north to south, the Western Link will allow power to flow in both directions according to future electricity supply and demand requirements.’

Source: https://www.spenergynetworks.co.uk/pages/western_hvdc_link.aspx  

And finally, confirming the underlying rationale for the investment: ‘The Western Link was designed to accommodate the increasingly high volume of power generated in Scotland and prevent transmission bottlenecks ..’

Source: https://theenergyst.com/western-link-failure-sees-national-grid-pay-31m-to-turn-off-wind-farms/ 

It’s more difficult – so far not achieved – to obtain a statistic for the amount of electricity transferred from elsewhere in the UK into Scotland, whether via the bi-directional HVDC cable of the Western Link or through the existing onshore transmission infrastructure.

An official report from the UK government published the table below with data for 2013/14 – see https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/357534/Imports__exports_and_transfers_of_electricity.pdf. It states that electricity transfers at the time from England into Scotland were ‘negligible’. 

What’s changed? (See Addendum.)

The following comes from descriptions of other High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) cables, largely offshore, being constructed, in development or being planned to transfer electricity from Scotland to England.

Eastern Green Link 1 (EGL1)

See https://www.easterngreenlink1.co.uk/ 

‘EGL1 is designed to unlock Scotland’s renewable energy reserves by scaling up the UK’s capacity to transport clean energy from where it is generated to where it is needed. Through its multi-directional design, it will also increase the resilience and stability of the UK’s transmission networks.’

And more on Eastern Green Link 1 from https://www.iberdrola.com/about-us/what-we-do/smart-grids/eastern-link-electric-underwater-line    

‘.. a kind of great electric motorway that will connect one of the most important renewable generation centres in Europe (the Scottish territory of the North Sea) with England and will supply two million homes. Specifically, the link will run from Torness in East Lothian (Scotland) to Hawthorn Pit in County Durham (England).’

And: ‘… also a boost for the UK supply chain, as several UK companies will supply major works and components. This is the case of GE Vernova’s Grid Solutions division (based in Staffordshire), which will supply HVDC valves and control systems, as well as HVDC transformers.’ 

‘… this new infrastructure is needed to improve the capacity of the interconnection network between Scotland and England and enable renewable energy produced in Scotland to reach the most energy intensive regions of the country.’ 

Eastern Green Link 2 (EGL2)

See https://www.easterngreenlink2.co.uk/  

‘EGL2 is a 505km electricity superhighway which will enable the transfer of power from Scotland to England (and vice versa) via a subsea cable.’

And from a section entitled ‘Needs Case’: ‘EGL2 is a critical component of the broader energy strategy for England and Wales. It is part of The Great Grid Upgrade, the largest overhaul of the electricity network in generations which aims to prepare the electricity network for a Net Zero future.’

Eastern Green Link 3 (EGL3) and EGL4

See https://www.ssen-transmission.co.uk/projects/project-map/eastern-green-link-3/  

‘To transfer the renewable power generated in the North of Scotland to demand centres in the South a 525kV HVDC link, …’.

‘The Eastern Green Link 3 project will use the latest technology to provide a 2GW bi-pole, 525kV HVDC link between Peterhead in Aberdeenshire and the Lincolnshire area in England. This will enable the efficient transmission of high volumes of power which can then be further distributed to demand centres throughout the UK.’

And more on EGL3 and also on an EGL4 from this source: https://www.nationalgrid.com/document/151556/download 

’EGL 3 and EGL 4 are needed as the existing transmission network does not have enough capacity to securely and reliably transport the increasing amount of energy generated in Scotland and Scottish waters, particularly from offshore wind, to population centres in the Midlands and South of England.’

Eastern Green Link 5 (EGL5)

See https://www.nationalgrid.com/the-great-grid-upgrade/eastern-green-link-5 

The least mature initiative: ’EGL 5 would transport enough clean energy from Scotland to power up to two million homes in parts of the Midlands and South of England.’

‘EGL 5 is a key project in The Great Grid Upgrade, which will future proof the Grid for years to come, facilitating the transition to a clean and affordable energy future. The Great Grid Upgrade will enable the electricity grid to carry more clean energy to communities in every part of England and Wales, helping us all reach net zero faster.’

Addendum

Question put to the AI tool, GROK regarding ‘imported’ electricity to Scotland via the Western Link: ‘How much electricity has the Western Link HVDC cable delivered to Scotland since it has been operational?’

Response includes: ‘Exact figures for the total electricity delivered to Scotland are not publicly reported in available sources, as the cable primarily facilitates the export of renewable energy from Scotland to England and Wales, with bidirectional capability. Since its operation, it has enabled the transfer of renewable electricity sufficient to supply over two million homes annually, implying significant energy flow, predominantly southward.’

‘However, the link’s bidirectional nature means some electricity could flow to Scotland during specific demand scenarios, though this is less common. Without granular data on directional flows, a precise figure for electricity delivered to Scotland cannot be provided. Estimates suggest it has facilitated billions of kilowatt-hours overall, but Scotland’s share would depend on operational patterns not detailed in the sources. For a precise answer, data from National Grid or SP Energy Networks would be needed.’

Asked of ChatGPTin a follow up: ‘Why is there a public total for electricity sent from Scotland to England by the Western Link HVDC cable but not a simple total for electricity sent using this same cable from England to Scotland?’

ChatGPT responded: ‘The reason we typically see a public total for electricity exported from Scotland to England/Wales but not for imported electricity from England to Scotland via the Western Link HVDC cable lies in the nature of electricity trading and grid management. Here’s a breakdown of why this happens:

A lengthy, detailed response, included but was not limited to this:

‘1. Export (Scotland to England/Wales) – Clear Visibility and Market Drivers:

‘Renewable Energy Goals: Scotland generates a significant proportion of its electricity from renewable sources, particularly wind and hydro power. The Western Link cable is one of the key ways to export this surplus green energy to England and Wales, especially when Scotland is producing more electricity than it can use. 

‘2. Import (England/Wales to Scotland) – Less Public Visibility:

‘Operational Flexibility, Not a Major Energy Source: The import role of the Western Link is much more situational. It operates more as a tool for grid balancing during periods of high demand or low domestic generation in Scotland. Essentially, it’s used when Scotland needs more power than it’s producing locally.

‘Not a Major Source of Power for Scotland: While the import capacity is crucial, Scotland still generally produces more electricity than it consumes (especially with renewables). Importing is just to top up during shortfalls, and this doesn’t generate as much attention compared to large-scale renewable exports.

To this follow up question: ‘How is the Western Link used to manage grid balancing and how it helps the energy markets in the UK work?’ ChatGPT’s response included some interesting features:

‘The Western Link is part of the UK’s integrated electricity market. The ability to move power across regions helps converge prices between Scotland, England, and Wales. (my emphasis)

‘Scotland’s Renewable Advantage: Because Scotland has an abundance of renewable energy, the cost of electricity there is typically lower than in England. The Western Link allows this cheaper electricity to be sold to England, ensuring more competitive electricity prices across the UK.’ 

End note

So costs are lower in Scotland – transfer from Scotland allows England to access lower cost electricity – this aids more competitive (i.e. lower) pricing for all. Where then is Scotland’s renewable advantage?

Might this be a reasonable summary of what AI responses are telling us?  Scotland is providing electricity to a system and into a wholesale and retail market designed to secure lower cost electricity for England which in turn leads to lower prices for electricity consumers in England, with the market for England setting the price for whole of Great Britain. There is no price and no other competitive advantage arising from Scotland’s surplus electricity generation for consumers (domestic, commercial, industrial) in Scotland.