Professor John Robertson OBA
The two recent polls by Ipsos and Norstat showing Yes leads, have reversed what seemed to be a counter trend with four No leads, from Survation but especially, with bizarre whopping No leads, from YouGov.
These four polls were ‘counter‘ in the most obvious of ways – counter to the plummeting reputations of Labour in late 2024 and early 2025, as they went full-on austerity two and especially for the poor, the elderly and the disabled.
How did they manage it? Simple, they adjusted their sample to look just like the sample in the 2014 referendum poll, 55% no voters and, hey presto, they fabricated No leads with very little relation to the views of the population in 2025.
How do they get away with it? The media either do not understand sampling or do not give a, about sampling.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
The media have the resources to inform themselves if they wish to do so. Not informing themselves means they cannot in turn properly and correctly inform their readers / viewers. So the public are misinformed. There are choices being made here. Misinformation is also propaganda.
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I’m more inclined towards DISinformation from the press although others may just call it lying. The Scottish people (me included) have been duped for decades so it’s just normal now. I’m not sure how the SNP can cut through this but, if they don’t do it soon, there will be no route to independence ever.
Extract the digit SNP!
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It’s clever tactics yes, the BritEng state are experts at twisting facts, influencing voters with propaganda, and of course that’s why they don’t allow Scotland braodcasting powers, no Scottish state broadcaster, win win for the colonisers, all so called media and news is controlled by them.
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Or even broadcasting…ok I’m going back to bed be a good idea I think.
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They know what they are doing it’s all BritNat states’ propaganda machine in action, it will get much ‘worse’ in the coming months so we need to be sure to share John’s articles widely, and whatever we can to debunk the Brit states’ lies and propaganda assault on Scotland.
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What do we want, independence! YES thanks!
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Newspapers and others commissioning opinion polls must know the key aspects of the research and analysis methods that their chosen polling company will use.
Specific modifications to methods can be requested of the polling contractor – including a specification in the invitation to tender document or even when engaged in single tender action – IF the commissioner regarded changing something in methodology to be important. And if the contractor is unable/unwilling to make an alteration, other polling companies are available.
The significance and impact of using a 2014 weighting in 2025 is now so obviously ‘problematic’ that this weighting method must (simply) meet the commissioning organisation’s objectives.
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Can someone please explain to me in more detail what a “2014 weighting” means ? Thanks in advance…
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I asked your question of Chat GPT (for free) as a place to start – other AI tools are available.
From Chat GPT – (see https://chatgpt.com )
My question: ‘When a polling company reports a survey of political opinion in Scotland weighted to 2014 what does it mean?‘
ChatGPT said in response: ‘When a polling company reports a survey of political opinion in Scotland “weighted to 2014,” it usually refers to weighting the data based on how people voted in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
I’n Detail: In Scotland, “2014” almost always refers to the independence referendum, held on 18 September 2014, when voters were asked: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” The result was 55% No and 45% Yes.
‘So what does “weighted to 2014” mean? It means the polling company adjusts its results so that the sample of respondents reflects the actual breakdown of Yes and No voters in the 2014 referendum. (my emphasis)
‘For example: If too many “Yes” voters respond to a survey compared to their actual proportion in the population, the polling company may down-weight those responses.
‘If too few “No” voters respond, their responses may be up-weighted to better reflect the 2014 outcome (55% No, 45% Yes).
‘Why is this done?
‘To reduce sampling bias: Some groups are more or less likely to respond to polls. Using past vote weighting helps correct that imbalance.
‘To ensure comparability: Weighting to a fixed, known result (like 2014) lets pollsters track shifts over time more accurately.
‘Potential issues:
‘Voter behavior changes over time: The population and political attitudes have shifted since 2014. Some people who voted No may now support independence, and vice versa.
‘New voters weren’t part of 2014: Young people who’ve become eligible since 2014 weren’t in the original referendum and may not fit the old weighting structure well.
‘Bottom Line:
‘When a poll in Scotland is “weighted to 2014,” it means the data is adjusted to match the Yes/No vote breakdown from the 2014 independence referendum—a common practice in Scottish political polling.’
When I asked the same question of Chat GPT but without any mention of Scotland, the response also included this:
‘Possible concerns:
‘Outdated weighting: If the weighting is still based on 2014 data in 2025, it might not accurately reflect the current political or demographic landscape. People’s voting habits and population structures change over time, so relying on old data could skew results.’
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The ease of asking questions of these AI tools is ‘interesting’!
My question: ‘How much difference does it make to the results of political opinion polling in Scotland if the polling company does or does not apply a 2014 weighting to its survey findings?’
ChatGPT said:
‘Applying or not applying a 2014 independence referendum weighting to political opinion polls in Scotland can significantly affect the reported results, especially when measuring support for Scottish independence.’
Here’s a breakdown of what this weighting does and why it matters:
🔹 What is the 2014 weighting?
This weighting adjusts the results of a poll to reflect how respondents say they voted in the 2014 independence referendum (Yes vs. No). Since the actual result of that vote is known (55% No, 45% Yes), pollsters use it as a benchmark to correct for sampling biases.
🔹 Why use 2014 weighting?
Mitigating recall or enthusiasm bias: People who support independence may be more motivated to respond to political polls. Over time, some may also misremember or reinterpret how they voted.
Correcting sample bias: Without weighting, your sample might have too many pro-independence or pro-union respondents relative to the actual population.
Consistency over time: It allows pollsters to track long-term changes more reliably.
🔹 Impact on polling results
52% Yes
48% No
After applying 2014 weighting, the same sample might show:
49% Yes
51% No
The specific shift depends on the sample and how skewed it is in terms of 2014 recall.
🔹 Why is this controversial?
Some argue that recall of 2014 vote may be inaccurate or that people’s identity has changed over the last decade, so weighting by that vote might distort current opinion. Others say it’s still a useful corrective tool for ensuring polls don’t unintentionally overstate a side.
✅ Summary
Polling Approach Effect on Independence Support
With 2014 weighting Slightly lower Yes %
Without 2014 weighting Slightly higher Yes %
It’s a methodological choice that can shift the headline figures, especially on constitutional questions. When comparing polls, it’s important to check whether 2014 weighting was used.
‘Would you like a comparison of specific polling firms and whether they use this weighting? ‘
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ALL ROYAL MASONIC UNIONIST LIEARS AND CHEATS CANNOT STOP OUR FREEDOM MOVEMENT
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Early in 2014 I was doorstepped by a YouGov employee who was gathering data ahead of the referendum. He took my phone number for future polling contacts and asked if I supported Independence (which I was/am). In the 11 years since then I’ve never had another call from YouGov. Coincidence?
Ken Mathieson
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Nope.
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I came across this worth noting.
https://dailybusinessgroup.co.uk/2025/07/lindsey-oil-refinery-could-cost-taxpayers-1billion/
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