Professor John Robertson OBA
Last night’s Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election result:
This result surprised everyone, including all the pollsters and the bookies. Labour were expected to come third as in all recent Scottish opinion polls. That tells you there was something particular, ‘local’, going on.
What might that be?
From Bylines Scotland in July 2024:
The Orange Order is motivated by a desire to preserve the union, using social media for easier organisation. For example, the Loyal Orange Institution of Scotland posted on Facebook on June 18th:
“Today is the last day (11:59 pm) to register for a postal vote. Make sure your vote counts. If you are not sure who to vote for in your area, use your mobile phone in picture mode, viewing the Unionist Club barcode below, then click on the yellow sign to take you to their page.”
This directed followers to “Unionist Clubs Scotland.”
In May 2021, they urged members:
“As we approach the Scottish Parliament elections next Thursday, we remind everyone to vote for the Unionist party most likely to defeat the separatists. Maintain the Union. SNP out.”
https://bylines.scot/politics/marching-season-the-orange-order-and-the-general-election/
Evidence?
The collapse of the Conservative vote even though represented by an active member of the Orange Order, in an area where they are particularly strong.
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Turkeys voting for Christmas. Labour council there voted down community funding for that area. Can’t believe people are so stupid and the ‘reform’ company, so many votes, something in the water there.
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Yes, but why A.H? After what they, the electorate, promised us on the doorsteps in 2015, why have they gone back on what they previously said? Last year’s G.E, and now yesterdays result, surely proves, especially how Scotland has been treated since Labour came to power, and brings into question the mentality of at least some of those who voted. Over 17,000 voting for either political parties, or a private company, who despise Scotland. Or is it the fact that the turnout was well down on last year? Are the S.N.P still not getting out their core vote? Is seems that is part of the problem. Why I don’t know, but as a member, I know there is a lot of dissatisfaction amongst the rank and file, in as much that our party are not being decisive enough, and that must change before next year.
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Am I the only one not surprised by this result? I’ve been warning for weeks about Labour’s incessant twitter campaign. X has been swamped on a daily basis by the Labour Party official posts, by Sarwar and Baillie, and by their MSPs, promoting their candidate unmercifully, even in his frequent absences. The constituency itself has been almost trolled by labour campaigners. My personal feed, and I am unashamedly SNP, has been lost in a sea of Labour nonsense. It’s absolutely no surprise to me that Labour won.
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Sarwar had an advert on YouTube which we couldn’t ‘skip’ to get it off out screens.
I wonder who paid for that. Sarwar really was given a big media platform especially
after the verbal racism against him, surprised it wasn’t international news.
Thing is he works for the interests of the country next door. SNP need to stop being scared of pointing that out when it comes to Labcons etc al.
Just watching Indy truck Davy channel on YouTube, makes good points about Swinney’s ‘fairness’ in politics. All’s fair in love and politics, you play nice, you freakin lose!
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Given the underwhelming Labour candidate this result surely proves the old claim that Labour could put up a monkey with a red rosette and get elected !
What does that say about the electorate !
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According to constituents, he’s local, not parachuted in, well liked and works a lot for charities.
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Oh, I forgot the important bit. He’s shy. That’s why he avoids interviews.
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As commented on WGD earlier for a bit of perspective ” As % of electoral roll from 2021 to 2025 for the constituency vote
SNP 28 to 13
Labour 20.4 to 13.9
Tory 10.6 to 2.6
Reform 0.1 to 11.5
LibDem 1.7 to 0.9 “
602 votes was the difference between a Labour or SNP win, but it’s the Reform result which is the more intriguing – Take away the usual Tories jumping ship, Reform would appear to have conjured up an additional 2319 votes from somewhere…
What we don’t know beyond the “Sarwar/racist” episode, is what/how was being targeted in the constituency, Farage et al have played this game before….
At the end of the day it’s still the fact the SNP vote stayed at home and we all know why, grasping the thistle…..
Time for SNP to get the troops out…
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This result does not surprise me as leading up to it the anti SNP from MSM and questions put to Starmer to ridicule the SG at Westminster and as the article mentions the OO promoting the Union.The time has come for the SNP to take the gloves off and take the fight to them all we will never get a good hearing from BBC Scotland so no more craven interviews with them so dig the dirt on them and say it as it is.
Rant over but it makes me sick seeing our SNP politicians roll over to these unionist lackeys.
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Perhaps Labour’s timely “defence review” also played a part. Starmer was in Scotland visiting arms manufacturers launching his “”Strategic Defence Review” in Glasgow. It may be that the false promise of arms industry jobs persuaded people to vote Labour. Project fear is alive and well.
How are those 28 frigates coming along?
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Problem with the theory that the OO swung this for Labour is that it wasn’t at all clear who was “the Unionist party most likely to defeat the separatists”. If anything, by the time of the election the general consensus was that that was likely to be Reform
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Swinney campaigned on stop reform just like Strugeon stood on stop BREXIT.
You have to campaign on a positing hope for the future not negative past. It has been proved time and again.
Swinney’s only hope is to unite the Indy movement with SNP1 Alba(or other indy party) 2.
Scots are quite savey in using their vote and people are sick of the SNP nonsense.
And we still have Murrel’s case and Mr Salmond’s estate case ahead oh and remember they do have the WhatsApp messages.
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Given the SNP are likely to lose constituency seats, you need to look at the 2011 result; where an overall majority was achieved with a combination of constituency and list seats. Later elections, where the SNP almost swept the board, in the constituencies, cost them list seats for no overall gain.
Unless you want the next Scottish Government to fall in line with Westminster, on everything from child payments, prescriptions and beyond, SNP 1&2 is your best hope.
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The hype surrounding recent polls carried out showing a surge for independence was always taken with a huge pinch of salt on my part.
Reform?
We have many in the electorate that’s views dovetail in perfectly with them.
I hear it and speak with people who you would think are otherwise rational.
It’s time for Independence parties to stop trying to woo these people and go full-on Independence campaigning to the general public explaining the obvious benefits.
They will lose if they hope for a gradual change in opinion.
The msm will keep up their onslaught in decrying independence for Scotland.
They simply will never appeal to that group no matter how you try to explain things.
Their blind hatred for “separatists” knows no bounds.
Gloves need to come off and NOW!
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I see no-one replied to my comment on another post about next year’s Holyrood elections.
Again, I would say it is very likely that a coalition or agreement of some sort will need to be formed between parties.
But who will those parties be?
The SNP will have been in power for almost twenty years by 2026, and independence looks no closer, with no clear idea from anywhere on how to achieve it.
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With the form of D’Hondt voting system imposed onto Scotland by the country next door, which was designed so that the SNP would not be able to have a majority in government, it’s anyone’s guess just what might be in the minds of the
BritNats, but we can be sure they are determined to take control of Holyrood by hook or by crook, whatever it takes.
SNP have not had all those years ‘in power’ in fact, it’s been split across the board in various ways. However, I agree without a coalition or, another agreement they had with the Scottish Greens, we could see a coalition of BritNat parties taking over and installing themselves in power at Holyrood. A terrifying thought.
Ps I am no expert on voting systems, and I still find the list system imposed onto Scotland, by England, quite confusing.
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The same is likely to happen in Holyrood election next year. Unionists will use tactical voting, Anti-SNP in constituencies, their preferred Unionist choice in List vote and hey presto, there will still be far too few Independence MSPs.
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Sorry to say this but as a now 77yo in 2014 was the first time I felt motivated enough to go out canvassing for Indy but as a long time SNP member I no longer have that enthusiasm to even attend the local Party meetings. There is no one in the current batch that in my view has any charisma to instil any hope things will change for the better. Many of my family still vote for the SNP more out of allegiance to me but they too have little confidence so unsurprisingly I doubt many others will. As much as I admire Swinney he is to my mind far too passive for a leader at a time when I feel we need a more robust approach. Too often these days I am constantly frustrated at lack lustre responses at FM’s QT. My only hope is that Stephen Flynn will come to the rescue if elected which I fear on this outcome must be now in some doubt.
Robbo
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Holyrood more younger people can vote.
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