Professor John Robertson OBA
In the midst of clear dissatisfaction with the UK Labour Government’s new austerity policies, collapsing support for Labour and Cons, the pollster Survation manage to somehow still pluck a predicted majority for No in a referendum on Scottish independence.
How do they do it when Find Out Now and Norstat keep finding Yes majorities, sometimes large ones?
They adjust their survey sample:
So, they initially gather responses randomly, which have 426 favouring Yes to 321 favouring No then reduce the former to 334 and increase the latter to 413, creating a sample which looks like, has a similar ratio to, the 2014 referendum result, of 45/55.
What’s wrong with that? Since 2014, around half a million over 65’s (two thirds No voters) have left the electorate (passed) and a similar number of 16 to 24 year-olds (two thirds likely Yes voters) have joined it. That’s what the electorate looks like now and they ‘weight’ the sample so it does not look like 2025 but remains more like that in 2014, determining the result of their poll – the same result as in 2014.
It’s not science it’s propaganda.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
well said John
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This is what they do. Adjusting the percentages on the basis of a result over ten years old is just more British establishment skulduggery.
everyone here on Talking Up Scotland understands this. How do we tell the rest?
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Yes indeed…how do we inform people. I’d chuck a few bob in to crowd fund lefalets to go through every door in Scotland with info on this and many other matters like info on which powers are reserved to the EngUK government and that they ultimately control the fiscal arena in Scotland.
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Leaflets…
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Diffley is a strange one, seems to have become the go to guy for BBC Scotland – Saw him platformed on the Sunday show talking total crap about the ‘rise of Reform’ changing Scotland’s politics forever because of the Runcorn by-election and local council elections in England.
He appeared sober…
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Paul Hutcheon the Daily Record’s political Editor for the Labour party in Scotland tweeted this on ‘X’ on 6 May.
“Reading that SNP list of Holyrood candidates, it’s like a revolving door of Westminster rejects”
MSM Monitor in a tweet yesterday on ‘X’ then responded to Paul’s tweet in reminding us all about Anas Sarwar (as in his political career thus far).
“Scottish Labour is not only led by a Westminster reject who lost his seat to Alison Thewliss in 2015. It is led by someone who has been repeatedly rejected as a constituency candidate in every Holyrood election he has stood in”.
I mean really glass houses and all that Mr Hutcheon.
Then of course we also have Paul Sweeney the current Labour MSP also lost his Labour MP seat at WM to the SNP and now he too is a list MSP. (is he a “WM reject” too Mr Hutcheon).
Then there is (Baroness) Katy Clark, also a former Labour MP who lost her seat to the SNP and now a list MSP but who is also a life peer. (is she also a “WM reject” too Mr Hutcheon)
Then there is also list Labour MSP Martin Whitfield who was also formerly a Labour MP who then also lost his seat to the SNP . (is he also a “WM reject” too Mr Hutcheon)
So what exactly is Paul Hutcheon’s point ?
Paul BTW is very much part of Labour’s client media in Scotland and often a spokesperson for Labour here in his many (media) attempts to try to discredit the SNP.
Is it okay for Labour to be what Paul calls being “WM rejects” but not the SNP ?
That’s way too politically partisan and also kind of unfair of Paul surely ?
Paul hopes that people, as in those not politically engaged, will have forgotten that Sarwar was one of many Labour MP’s who formerly lost their seat in 2015 (to the SNP).
Now Sarwar , as another Labour “WM reject”, is now also another Labour list MSP (and now he is also the branch office manager in Scotland).
Then Sarwar , as an MSP and Labour leader (ITO) in Scotland, hopes that one day he too will be awarded a life peerage (for failure) come next year post the Scottish elections, where it is predicted he and his party will lose that election.
I mean another Labour reject was Margaret Curran who also lost her Labour MP seat in 2015 and now Keir Starmer has awarded her a life peerage as a “WM reject” , and then former Labour MSP and also a former Labour branch office manager (involved in a scandal while at Holyrood) Wendy Alexander has now also been awarded a life peerage by Keir Starmer.
Wendy’s brother Douglas was formerly also a “WM reject” in 2015 but he was then chosen again as a Labour candidate, 9 years later, and then he was elected (again) as a Labour MP last year in Scotland .
Margaret’s son, Chris Murray, was also elected as a Labour MP in Scotland last year.
It was then purely coincidental that both Margaret and Wendy got their life peerages after their relatives were both elected as MP’s in Scotland and also post a substantial increase in elected Labour MP’s in Scotland last year in the UK GE.
#Timing………as in assuming that the time is right to do that , which otherwise , would be considered both very very wrong and also , as an action , that which we formerly often saw done by the Tories .
(Examples being Malcolm Offord, former Tory donor, failed to be elected as an MSP then parachuted into the HOL and also Ian Duncan , a former Tory MEP, who failed to be elected as an MP in the 2017 UK GE, then he too was parachuted into the HOL – so like the the Labour party now we also saw life peerages awarded for failures in the Tory party too).
Tory political rejects also rewarded, like Labour political rejects, for Failure as well, it seems most uncanny how they both have the same solutions to those rejected by the electorate, as in jobs for the boys and girls post them being democratically rejected by the public.
Then what about Thangham Debonnaire , she lost he seat as an English Labour MP last year in the GE and then as a Labour “WM reject” Starmer rewarded her with a Life Peerage.
Also former Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth he too also lost his seat as a Labour MP last year then he , as a “WM reject” was also rewarded as he became the new Director of the Labour Think tank ‘Labour Together’.
Then another one Luciana Berger who lost her seat as an MP in 2019, she had left the Labour party because of Jeremy Corbyn , now she too as a “WM reject” was rewarded by Starmer with a life peerage.
Paul Hutcheon just cannot get a break when he tries to diss the SNP as some clued up people in Scotland , who are politically engaged , know that his comments in relation to the SNP were actually applicable to some within the Labour party.
Of course he calls the SNP former MP’s “Westminister rejects” but surely the Scottish parliament is their, the SNP’s, ‘natural home’ as opposed to the hostile English parliament at WM .
The same WM where other MP’s and also various PM’s from some pro UK parties have a tendency to disrespect SNP MP’s who , as SNP MP’s, are democratically elected in UK GE’s by people living in Scotland.
(Paul knows this too, but he does not care, as Paul is on the side of those within the English parliament who are disrespectful and hostile towards the MP’s in the SNP , as in those SNP MP’s that many of us elect in Scotland to represent us in order that they, as SNP MP’s, may then challenge various UK governments often unfair Reserved policies and also challenge many bad decisions made at WM that impact our devolved Scottish government).
Vote SNP in 2026 , if nothing else to prove to Paul Hutcheon and his employer the DR (owned by Reach PLC whose HQ is in London) that their propaganda on behalf of Labour is not working (this time or rather any more) via the majority within Scotland.
As now that Labour HQ have completely messed up their short time, so far as the new UK government, then one assumes the bubble has finally burst on Labour ever being considered as a first option to vote for in all future elections in Scotland or indeed in any elections within the UK, via a majority of people.
Though one does hope the time is coming , as in sooner rather than later , when we no longer, as a nation , have to participate in UK GE’s any more.
Liz S
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Another good post.
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I looked at the British Polling Council website to see whether there is any way of upholding honest polling standards. However, they only insist that pollsters are “transparent” about their methods, not that their methods are valid.
So as long as Survation tell us they are skewing the result, that’s OK.
If Survation are members of the Market Research Society then a complaint could be sent to the MRS.
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Would it be too much to ask just to publish the actual results of a survey without any of the jookery pokery?
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Would it be too much to ask that the results of a survey be published without all the jookery pokery?
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It would appear somebody has re-weighted the numbers for current demographics of Scotland, as it appears in https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2025/05/08/how-polls-turn-a-lead-for-yes-into-a-lead-for-no/
Minus don’t knows, 52% Yes, 48% No…
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One reason Labour should nosedive in polls in Scotland is this (as in it being but one example of many).
8 May , today Saul Staniforth Blue Sky account.
Saul posted this comment when Labour’s John Healey was interviewed on TV:
“”Why did you have to take the winter fuel allowance away from pensioners?”
“John Healey , the Labour Defence Secretary, says they inherited a serious mess & govts often have to take decisions they don’t want to take. He’s lying. In 2014 Rachel Reeves told MPs she wanted to scrap the universal winter fuel allowance”
So Saul then had another post on 6 May 2025 that disputes much of that ‘excuse’ John Healey made for Labour scrapping the Universal WFP.
Excuses being Labour “Inherited a mess” and also that they, Labour, “took decisions they didn’t want to take”.
As Saul’s other post on Blue Sky on the 6 May was a video of Rachel Reeves in 2014 , when she was the then Shadow Secretary of State for Works & Pensions where she said this in the HOC:
“We’re the party who have said we would cut the Winter Fuel allowance for the richest pensioners , we’re the party who said we would means test that benefit to save money, something on which the other side of the house you haven’t supported. So the reality is we’re the party who are willing to take tough decisions to get the welfare bill down.”
Of course we all now know only too well that they, Labour, are indeed the party willing to make ‘tough’ decisions to get the welfare bill down and they are also the party who are currently being so dishonest that they have blamed all of their latest “tough decisions” , as a UK government, upon the so called “Tory financial black hole” as being the supposed real and only reason why they had to make these so called “tough decisions”.
However the only problem in them now blaming the “Tory Financial black hole” for Labour making these “tough decisions” now as a UK government, is that in 2014 Rachel Reeves gave the game way for Labour, as she told us the public, and she also told MP’s in the HOC that this was to be Labour’s plan all along if they came to power as the UK government.
I, and others, suspect these cruel decisions made by Labour as the current new UK government have actually been ‘easy’ decisions and not tough ones at all for them , and this is based very much on what came out of Rachel Reeves’s mouth (Horse’s mouth so to speak) in 2014.
Social media is the nemesis of politicians like Rachel Reeves, and also many other Labour politicians as well , because many people bookmark specific moments online in order to produce them at the most opportune moments , like now for instance, in order for them, as people, to confirm the blatant hypocrisy and blatant lying from Labour politicians like John Healey and also other Labour MP’s, Labour Ministers and also very much too the Labour PM……….as in………….
#NotToughDecisionsAsItWasAlwaysThePlanWithLabourToDoThis
Vote SNP in 2026 by a majority or suffer under Keir Starmer and Labour HQ as they, Labour HQ, will be the ones deciding what direction Labour in Scotland will take for Scotland if, God Forbid, Sarwar was the next FM (no chance surely), as in it will not be a “new direction” for Scotland but it will be the exact same direction as Labour HQ is taking with England………as in……….
#SayGoodbyeToBenefitsWithLabourHQInCharge
Liz S
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The ‘new direction’ re, Scotland would be backwards and much ‘worse’.
By christ they’d punish Scotland’s poorer folk and disabled, even more than in England.
As with ‘change’ ‘new direction’ can mean anything, these fancy slogans and soundbites are meant to confuse, and con the people. The liars are desperate, they’ll stoop very low to try oust the SNP, we better make sure they do not succeed.
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Indeed ArtyHetty spot on.
Sarwar dropped the “Change” slogan for the 2026 elections and now thinks that he can con us all (again) with him declaring a “New Direction” with Labour in charge in Scotland.
Trust me it will indeed be a “New Direction” as they , Labour, will be totally different from the SNP (“different” in this case being worse) , as in Labour will take us in Scotland in both the same direction and also the wrong direction as their Labour UK dictates, which is, as you say, the “worse direction” ever for their whole UK and also for England (and Wales as well).
Liz S
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O/T
UK-US not a Trade deal …..Deal or no Deal.
In America an Economics Professor spoke to CNN about this ‘Deal’ and also about the distinct possibility that Trump would promote that he had made a great ‘Trade deal with the UK’.
So this Professor’s facts on this were:
“It’s a framework not a deal”
“The UK is their (America’s) 11th largest trading partner”
“The UK is only 3% of US trade (97% to go)”
“The UK *already* charge average tariffs of only 1%“
Also he said that for Trump:
“It’s a photo op, not a macroeconomically significant moment”.
This Professor was then asked if is this was what he would consider a ‘major’ Trade deal.
His response was “No. Let’s get some numbers and context . The UK they are our (America’s) 11th trading partner, they account for 3% of American trade, six weeks ago the average tariff the UK charged countries around the world was 1%. So the best America could do is knock the UK down from 1% to zero” (it has not done that).
Then this Professor was asked:
“Why do you think he (Trump) is announcing this with the UK. What is the game plan here to suggest that this is much bigger than you say” ?
He, the Professor responded:
“The President is a showman , he’s going to tell you that there’s all sorts of wonderful things about it, this is a country (UK) with a King & Queen and they have Beef Eaters and all sorts of things , but they’re not remotely central to us. The other things to realise about the UK , bless em, but um, they’re sort of the guys who walked away from trade very recently (Brexit) , they’re particularly looking for friends”
“You might have been at High School once and there was someone who told their whole group of friends to go stuff themselves, uh that’s the United Kingdom. And once you do that to your friends you very quickly go looking for another friend group and you’ll find that other friend group wherever you can”.
(I love that analogy by him of a weak Brexit UK , as it seems so very very perfect, as in apt, in respect to the previous Tory UK government, as well as this this new Labour one also).
So basically this Professor is saying that the UK discarded it’s best “group of friends” and so now as Beggars, then the UK, cannot now be choosers, so they (the UK) have to take what they can get, as in anything with anyone, which is not always what will be the best for the UK .
However Keir Starmer is still licking his wounds after Labour were badly beaten in last week’s local elections in England, and so he thinks making ‘deals’ with whoever on whatever , even if not an actual full Free Trade deal with the USA, still sounds like he and his government are achieving something positive.
(Other countries less desperate than the UK are not so keen to try to appease Trump or make deals with Trump’s America, but Brexit UK and the new Brexit UK Labour PM will do what is necessary aka critical, which is pretty much anything with anyone it seems).
Also the UK Trade deal that he announced yesterday with India is already, as a deal, being criticised , but for Starmer getting any deal , irrespective of what concessions have been made on the UK side, is , for him , seemingly the best way for him to pretend that both he and Labour are ‘winning’.
Trump is also being criticised in America on the damage his Tariffs upon other countries is having on, checks notes, America, so he needs something he can pretend is ‘good news’ and misrepresent it as a full free Trade deal between the UK and his country the US. That way he can pretend his imposed tariffs on other countries have not blocked ‘Trade’ but not actual ‘Trade’ deals with other countries.
However clued up academics and non compromised media and opposition politicians can explain the reality of what he has now agreed to with the UK….one does wonder how Labour will promote it here…….
Get Jackie Baillie on the job as she is an expert in distributing fake news .
We in Scotland are used to being gaslit by UK parties, especially Labour, and their UK media too, so whatever is said about Trade deals ‘full ones’ or ‘Frameworks of a deal’ by Labour and their client media we can ignore , but only those of us who seek our news from alternate sources and who have people like the above Professor at a American University tells us to be the facts of this ‘deal but not the deal we , or Labour, assumed it would eventually be’.
#NotFullTradeDeal
Vote SNP in 2026 by a majority, first step on the road to independence, or just allow Labour UK now and in the future, and also other UK parties in the future as well, to all trade away all of our Scottish resources , Scottish food and drink and also sell off our NHS as well.
Liz S
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Apologies for yet another comment from me, but some things are just too significant to let pass. Big apologies , I will take a year off after this from commentating on here Ha Ha
So thanks again to MSM Monitor for his tweet on ‘X’
“The UK Labour Govt is to step in after Labour led Warrington Council ran up debts of £1.8bn. Yes, that’s correct … almost two BILLION quid. Now imagine Anas Sarwar if the Scottish Govt had to step in to rescue an SNP council that ran up a similar debt”
This is regarding a a story on the BBC Website where the BBC in their headline does not want to tell the public who runs that “debt ridden council”:
Their Headline is:
“Government to intervene at debt-ridden council”
Now it, as a story, is not on the main UK page, nor is it on the UK Politics page but instead it is hidden away on a England local news page on their BBC website under the North west area for ‘Liverpool’ news.
Imagine an SNP council in the same predicament and that as a story, on the BBC website not being a main headline on the BBC’s main Scottish page, their Scottish politics page and also on the page for that respective Scottish area.
The BBC in this article state that:
“Ministerial envoys are set to be sent into Warrington Council over concerns raised about its commercial programme and debts.
An inspection was ordered by the previous Conservative government after criticism of the authority’s £1.8bn debt, related mostly to its commercial investments.
Local government minister Jim McMahon said the authority was failing to comply with its best value duty in relation to five areas, including leadership, culture and use of resources”.
See there is imperfection all over the UK politically, both at a local level and also at a national level (both national as in UK and also too within various devolved governments – that’s governments as in plural to include the Welsh Labour government).
Remember there are also various other English councils that have gone bankrupt, some while under Labour’s control as a council.
The opposition parties and their media frame the political situation within Scotland as being a situation where the SNP , as the Scottish government and also as those who have control in Scottish councils , as somehow being unique within the UK politically.
Where with opposition parties and their media presenting the SNP as those who are incompetent, wasteful, always wrong, those who have broken public services, who fail to help the people of Scotland, who are bad for Scotland’s economy and also we get the #Ferries soap opera served up (way too) frequently as well as #SNPBAD news.
While Labour and other opposition parties expect us all to believe that they, when in power at either a UK level or a local council level (or as a Labour devolved government in Wales) are the exact opposite, as do their pro UK media indulge in this corrupt BritNat behaviour also.
UK aka English news and news too from Wales says different.
Vote SNP via a majority in 2026 or please stop complaining when things become actually as in really sh*t for you as a Scottish citizen whose country, Scotland, is still a part of their Brexit UK State.
Liz S
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