Professor John Robertson OBA
How and why did we manage to get an overall majority in 2011? How might we shape future campaigns to recreate this result?
Some ideas for debate:
The campaign
Research by the London School of Economics (LSE), in 2011, concluded that this was ‘an extraordinary result in an ‘ordinary’ election.’ By this, they mean that the data from 4 000 eligible voters in the Scottish Election Study did not reflect a surge in support for independence but, rather a desire to reward the SNP for effective government from 2007 to 2011. This is echoed today in poll after poll which make clear only three issues really matter to the majority – cost-of-living, health and immigration.
The message for us seems clear – while we might justifiably take pride in our achievements with regard to child poverty, progressive taxation and a more compassionate approach to both benefits and immigration, we must not foreground these but rather must focus repeatedly with simple messaging on what we are doing to help the whole population with universal benefits, better NHS statistics, lower crime and, specifically target, in certain areas only, the lower taxes paid by many workers. Any stats on my blog can be copied into a branch post or tweet etc in minutes.
The party
The LSE research also found that the party in 2011 seemed, to those asked, more united, more trustworthy and more interested in ordinary people. While there is little we can do if one of the leaders steps in the muck again, we do have in our candidates and among all of us, the potential to be more like that, than several of our opponents.
The message is that we need regular media images, in the local press but more so across social media, of candidates, in the field. In 2021,
The leader
Prof Curtice in October 2024, like the LSE in 2011, are clear that Alex Salmond’s personality was a factor in the success. His combative yet humorous debating style was attractive to many.
This is just my view but, as far as I can see, we need Stephen Flynn up there in front of the cameras, refusing to support the England football team, as much as possible.
The importance of both votes SNP
In 2011, almost all SNP constituency voters (45.4%) also voted SNP on the regional list (44%), gaining 16 list seats.
In 2016, the SNP constituency vote rose (47.7%), but the SNP list vote fell (41.7%), only 4 list seats.
In 2021, the SNP constituency vote rose (46.5%), but the SNP list vote fell again (40.3%), only 2 list seats.
Other writers argue about this but the above seems clear- both votes SNP
Sources:
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Absolutely agree! Thank you!
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Statistically nonsense
The second vote has been modeled several times to show that with as little as 10% on the second vote to another nationalist party the impact on unionists would be significant and give the SNP a super majority. The last thing the SNP wants is real power to drive indy.
They have clearly been infiltrated
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Source of this modelling?
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Twiggy ?
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What is clear is that the fall in list seats is due to the success of the SNP in the constituency seats. The list system is geared to help parties that do less well in the constituency seats achieve representation more closely reflecting their overall percentage support. As the SNP in recent years has got more seats in the First Past the Post constituencies than their overall percentage support warrants, the list system works strongly to prevent them getting more seats through the list vote.
The list system has a weakness in that it can be gamed. If SNP voters voted for ALBA on the list a significant number of ALBA MSPs would be elected giving Holyrood an independence super-majority. It’s how the Greens get their seats.
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Personally I fully support the supermajority argument, but it can’t just benefit ALBA. I don’t think it reasonable to ask the SNO to accept and one party as “competition” – even if NS did tacitly give people “permission” to vote Green when ALBA appeared.
It would have to a be a formal list coalition of Indy parties/individuals registered at the EC for HR26. And those in the group would have to agree a formal confidence and supply arrangement for ScotGov during that parliament’s term.
Basically, ScotGov would have to operate almost like a minority administration on policy as per 2007 (policy being designed to keep most on board and promote Indy) but have the ability to be aggressive on the Indy front.
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YES indeed SNP 1 & 2. Any other strategy will be reported as “SNP lose support and Independence is off the table until the year 3,000 at least.” Other nominally Independence parties have made no impact on the real polls, elections. ALBA to name but one achieved a total vote that was less than that achieved by several single SNP candidates in their individual constituencies.
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If Sarwar has already publicly stated even an SNP majority at HR26 won’t get a s.30, which he has, how exactly does SNP1&2 progress Independence?
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I totally agree John. I’ve made a considerable study of our voting system and suggested in the past some reforms to make the second vote more meaningful. ( The biggest complaint ).
I won’t go into this here but suffice to say that under the current system most quasi theories fall down when suggesting SNP1……. Any other Indy Party 2 as you simply can’t predict the outcome of the first vote and whether your candidate will definitely be successful.
Most theorists point to previous elections but that’s the point. It’s easy to say in retrospect “You wasted your 2nd vote” but that’s after the results are in.
Shame we haven’t got a crystal ball eh?
Who predicted the SNP would lose so many seats in the last GE? On the pro-SNP/Indy site I run most were shell shocked for days after as we did expect to lose some to Labour but not that many.
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Thik your wrong on this John. The unionist parties used the system to garner support around the most prominent figure in each region and red voted blue and vice versa.
If you look at the amount of votes that were wasted to gain four seats in a system that is designed to exclude the party that wins the first seat to allow other parties to gain representation.
The system was broken in 2011 partially because in some seats/regions eg borders allowed SNP to gain the list seats.
I am disgusted that personal issues were put to the fore and independence was the casualty of this infighting.
Remember why the cabal of unionists decided on this system was to make it impossible for the outcome in 2011.
We need to have unity or we will be continued to fracture and become divided.
Perfidious Albion makes the rules and changes them when necessary.
It was going to be unfair if we used the system to our advantage by voting another Independent seeking party!
This vote 1 & 2 is not just a losing strategy but is exactly what the unionist wants.
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It never ceases to amaze me how some Indy supporters get vexed about “not gaming the system” when the Unionist camp have been happy to “game” it for years and prevent an IndyRef2 electorate after electorate in election after election has mandated.
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100% agree with focusing on clear messaging not just on SNP govt achievements in tackling inequality, supporting the NHS and progressive taxation but also the rationale and benefits to all of this approach.
Not so sure about ensuring Stephen Flynn is more visible – after Alex and Nicola I feel uneasy about rallying behind another charismatic figure, as much for their own wellbeing as for any likely boost in the polls. Promoting him as one of a talented and diverse team seems to me to be a better way to proceed
Re the party, without press support it is difficult to get out a competent compassionate govt message but here at least the right wing press attacks on labour UK wide take away some of the advantage Scottish labour had in the last GE, ie an agenda of Change against a negatively framed continuity govt. We do need to be wary of the Reform brigade with their extensive funds and populist, rarely challenged, messaging but I’m hoping the idea that inequality fuels populism (see George Monbiot in the Guardian yesterday) protects Scotland to some extent given their more progressive approach
As for the vote SNP 1 & 2 debate I will be voting for my local SNP candidate and for the SNP as the party I feel best placed to deliver the outcomes I support including of course independence. I understand the argument for supporting another indy party in the list vote but don’t feel it is a) worth the risk and b) a way to achieve independence. All I want my vote to say is that I believe the SNP is the best party in a position to take Scotland forward at this time
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If as you say strong leadership is required, and we don’t have that strong leadership currently so need Stephen Flynn to redress this problem, how can SNP1&2 possibly work at HR26?
If Anas Sarwar has already publicly stated even an SNP majority won’t get a s.30, what’s the actual purpose of SNP1&2 at HR26?
And if SNP1&2 fails again (as I believe it will) how many ultra-right ReformUK MSPs will it let in the door giving it an electoral springboard for WM29?
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You ask If as you say strong leadership is required, and we don’t have that strong leadership currently so need Stephen Flynn to redress this problem, how can SNP1&2 possibly work at HR26?
I think we do have strong leadership now – John Swinney is quietly and efficiently bringing the party together, building bridges with opponents and establishing his own vision without the fanfare of previous FMs. Leadership doesn’t need to be showy, it can be about clearly defining vision and direction, choosing an effective team to work with, dealing effectively with challenges and everyday stuff. He’s setting to right some of the party system problems and this is especially noteworthy given the current upsets in other indy parties
If Anas Sarwar has already publicly stated even an SNP majority won’t get a s.30, what’s the actual purpose of SNP1&2 at HR26?
I’m not going to worry or take seriously what Anas Sarwar says. He’ll do what he’s told and an SNP majority will be hard to ignore especially given what key figures have said in the past about what such a majority would mean. Since 2014 successive UK politicians have challenged positive SNP results eg they didn’t get a majority, a 2 party majority is not the same, the unionist vote was larger than the indy vote etc and we have obliged them by fighting among ourselves to ensure the SNP will not gain an outright majority again. Until enough of us vote together for one party and gain a clear majority the unionists will continue to block another referendum
And if SNP1&2 fails again (as I believe it will) how many ultra-right ReformUK MSPs will it let in the door giving it an electoral springboard for WM29?
I guess we will need to wait and see for this scenario. I will work hard to support the SNP to win and hope they get their majority. If the ultra right make gains in Scotland I guess we need to accept there are people who support them while hoping they are kept at bay by a strong progressive agenda
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The article itself makes the Flynn point. I’ve certainly never stated John Swinney isn’t a good man, or indeed a passionate believe in Indy, but I think even his greatest friends would recognize that he’s a managerialist. Indeed it was one of those friends that coined the “men in grey kilts” phrase when his last leadership crumbled for that very reason.
Perhaps it worth consider whether the current SNP success is due to (i) something proactively being done or (ii) Labour imploding. If it’s believed to be the first then you have to find a way of squaring that with a 50% drop in membership, a collapse in MPs, and some incredibly dire polling just before Labour committing Hari-Kari with it policies.
I’m also going to have to suggest that ignoring Sawar on a s.30 is folly. Why would anyone choose to simply ignore the Scottish representative of the UK party in power at WM? But as you have… what actual evidence can you offer by way of retort that an SNP majority will guarantee an Indyref2 and not merely the Emperor’s New Clothes?
As for Reform, I’m afraid the polling speaks for itself here. If SNP2 is pursued over a supermajority and fails again we get ReformUK MSPs – that’s a fact! Possibly as many as 20 of them at current polling. A failed SNP2 is the handmaiden of Reform’s birth into the Scottish body politic.
And if Reform does get into HR it’ll (i) hollow it out like it did the EU and use it as a springboard for greater success at WM29. And if takes power there we’re getting a written UK Constitution to replace ECHR. What do we do if that constitution then includes a clause like Spain has over Catalonia? I mean, it’s not as if these type of people have unlawfully prorogued WM or anything like that just to frustrate Brexit debates.
Like many I’m in politics to achieve Independence. I don’t care about Party tribalism or personalities, I want Independence. We need to be honest about what’s at stake here and make HR26 a “country before party” election.
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You ask If as you say strong leadership is required, and we don’t have that strong leadership currently so need Stephen Flynn to redress this problem, how can SNP1&2 possibly work at HR26?
I think we do have strong leadership now – John Swinney is quietly and efficiently bringing the party together, building bridges with opponents and establishing his own vision without the fanfare of previous FMs. Leadership doesn’t need to be showy, it can be about clearly defining vision and direction, choosing an effective team to work with, dealing effectively with challenges and everyday stuff. He’s setting to right some of the party system problems and this is especially noteworthy given the current upsets in other indy parties
If Anas Sarwar has already publicly stated even an SNP majority won’t get a s.30, what’s the actual purpose of SNP1&2 at HR26?
I’m not going to worry or take seriously what Anas Sarwar says. He’ll do what he’s told and an SNP majority will be hard to ignore especially given what key figures have said in the past about what such a majority would mean. Since 2014 successive UK politicians have challenged positive SNP results eg they didn’t get a majority, a 2 party majority is not the same, the unionist vote was larger than the indy vote etc and we have obliged them by fighting among ourselves to ensure the SNP will not gain an outright majority again. Until enough of us vote together for one party and gain a clear majority the unionists will continue to block another referendum
And if SNP1&2 fails again (as I believe it will) how many ultra-right ReformUK MSPs will it let in the door giving it an electoral springboard for WM29?
I guess we will need to wait and see for this scenario. I will work hard to support the SNP to win and hope they get their majority. If the ultra right make gains in Scotland I guess we need to accept there are people who support them while hoping they are kept at bay by a strong progressive agenda
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SNP 1 + 2 is a waste of time in at least 6 list districts if the SNP aim to win big in the constituencies. With the addition of Reform, the appalling record of government by the Tories for the last 14 years and the present mob trying to be worse than the Tories especially by increasing austerity for the poor there will be no better time for the SNP to win a majority with constituency seats alone.
But I doubt the SNP will gain any list seats. If the SNP do not stand on the lists. They will encourage even more small Indy supporters out to vote SNP for their constituency MSP another plus for the SNP in the constituency vote.
However if the SNP fall back on Nicola’s mantra, “Both Votes SNP” I think they will definitely lose support on the lists where they do very well in the constituencies 6 list districts. Especially as they will need over 60% of the list vote to win a list seat where they have won 9 constituency seats.
Few people mention that the main difference between 2011 and 2021 in the list vote was that the Tory vote trebled while all the other parties remained much the same. That took the numbers needed for a list vote in the N. east district from under 13,000 to over 21,000 the SNP only got 140,000 votes. They were over 70,000 votes short of a list seat.
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#SNP1Indy2. #SNPwonIndyToo.
That’s the only message Scotland needs for Holyrood ’26. The SNP needs to concentrate everything it’s got on getting out the vote and getting the Constituency vote won. We all recognise and accept that they are the only Scottish party which can do this. That’s got to be their strategy. Tactically having Flynn in the campaign team should be good. Depends if he resigns his Westminster seat before the Holyrood election though. If he doesn’t the media will slaughter him for cowardice. It seems counter intuitive, but the SNP needs to be making clear that only voting for them will ensure that they can be replaced – in an indy Scotland. They’ve got to go all-in on this election. Being timid carries more risk than being assertive, honest and bold. They need to be explaining how the d’hondt system works in favour of three unionist parties which operate as one on independence AND they need to be (unofficially) collaborating with ALL other indy parties on this message.
Where though, is the pro-indy list vote to go? Scottish Greens are a risky option as its easy to see them collaborating with a unionist party – if that got their core policies implemented. Labour will no doubt promise them the earth… Alba is a mess. Can it be turned round?
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In 2011, almost all SNP constituency voters (45.4%) also voted SNP on the regional list (44%), gaining 16 list seats.
In 2016, the SNP constituency vote rose (47.7%), but the SNP list vote fell (41.7%), only 4 list seats.
In 2021, the SNP constituency vote rose (46.5%), but the SNP list vote fell again (40.3%), only 2 list seats.
Other writers argue about this but the above seems clear- both votes SNP
Obviously, no one argues that voting for a non-SNP party on the list will increase the number of SNP seats. The argument is that it will (or may) increase the number of pro-independence seats – which is exactly what happened in 2021 (72 pro-indy MSPs compared to 71 in 2011, the previous highest).
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This is beginning to remind me of football debates I have listened to, if Scotland wins this and X wins their game we still have a chance to get through. How about we all just vote for the MSP and the party we feel best suits our values, our ambitions and our hoped for outcomes rather than endlessly replaying this strategic voting argument? At the very least we might get a clear picture about the extent of indy support?
And also, it’s not up to the SNP to say who will be in charge when/should we gain our independence. It will be up to Scottish voters to choose the direction of travel and there will be plenty of time to argue and debate then without the skewing input of the UK unionist parties, Scottish labour, tories & lib-dems will need to stand on their own 2 feet (and budgets) to win support.
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O/T
I see there is a stooshie going on between the Chinese company that owns Scunthorpe British (English) Steel and the UK government.
“China warns UK against ‘politicising’ British Steel”
Coincidentally America is in a stand off with, checks bloody notes, China.
Also coincidentally the UK wants a Trade deal with America.
Just saying.
This could be seen as a ‘good time’ for the UK to (find a reason) to stand up to China, that is with America (First) and their new administration under Trump seeing the UK as a kindred spirit in the current American anti China campaign.
Though America (First) would still exploit the UK in a Trade deal and not reward them , but Keir Starmer is so so desperate for a US/UK Trade deal, so any deal would be worth it for him as the new UK PM , even a bad one for his UK, as the Labour client media could do what they do best, they would spin it to the public as being a great UK/US Trade deal made by Labour #LabourGood News.
The UK government took control of Scunthorpe British (English) Steel from a Chinese “private company” but Grangemouth Refinery , also owned by a “private company” as declared by Anas Sarwar, was unable to be ‘saved’ by that same UK government for reasons that no one in the UK government has been able to make to convince so many people on the logic of their inaction and negligence as a UK government on Grangemouth Refinery (apart from the fact that it was not based in England but instead based in Scotland)
Now that the UK government have declared that ‘Grangemouth is not comparable with Scunthorpe” then where does that leave the Grangemouth Labour ‘Rebel’ MP Brian Leishman.
As he is now seemingly a ‘Rebel’ without a cause.
Though he did ‘Get behind’ the workers in Scunthorpe British (English) Steel.
English Labour always ‘playing politics’ to their advantage while others, like Scotland & Wales, are victims of English Labour’s ruthless tactics that would even shame many a Tory.
The blast furnace at Port Talbot in Wales was turned off last September so the Scunthorpe site is now the last remaining producer of virgin steel in the UK and virgin steel is the strongest steel as it is made using the extreme heat of a blast furnace and it is used in railways and construction projects.
Of course this new Labour UK government has announced that they have lots of plans for new railways and construction projects in, checks bloody notes again, England.
English jobs for English workers via an English government with English government projects that are solely for the benefit of the English people. (but English government projects for England that are paid for by most of the people within the whole UK).
MP’s of other nationalities , that is Scottish or Welsh ones, within that English government will do as they are told to advance what is for them, a lucrative career , that possibly could result in them gaining a place on easy street aka the HOL as a Labour peer .
(That is they hope to be parachuted into the place that the new Labour leader previously promised he would abolish, then he chickened out and watered down those supposed ‘plans’, and so , just like the Tories, he as the new Labour leader just kept parachuting in more peers for his party, some of whom were rejected by the public in various GE’s, that of course is ‘Democracy Labour and UK style’).
Vote SNP in 2026 for this above reason but also for an abundance of other very good reasons to not vote for any other party, especially the new Tories in town aka the newest and latest version of the , checks bloody notes yet again, Labour party.
Liz S
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Nice to see Twiggy still in business………..
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Oh you are awful….but I like you.
Ha Ha…
Liz S
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A bit of emery and you’ll recover…
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