Professor John Robertson OBA
From Survation data based on 845 Scots, 16+, on 6-13 March 2025, the SNP lead on 34% but this may be a significant underestimate due to the continuing weighting of the sample to fit the 2014 referendum result more than 10 years.
The electorate in 2025 compared with that in 2014 has lost around half a million older voters, two thirds of them No supporters and gained roughly the same number of younger voters, two thirds of them Yes supporters. While there will be some erosion of the Yes support as some age and become more ‘conservative’ on a range of issues, including independence, it seems most unlikely that the electorate today will look the same as it did in 2014.
Consequently, the above ‘weighting’ of the poll, reducing the 2014 Yes voters in their original sample, from 409 down to 319 and increasing the 2014 No voters from 264 up to 373, seems quite illogical and likely to have understated support for all three pro-independence parties.
Source: https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/19100617/Quantum-Comms-March-Tables.xlsx
Talking-up Scotland 
What’s with the weighting, that’s never used in any other poll, just another dirty trick by WM to keep Indy down, do all pollsters use this method ?
LikeLiked by 2 people
Only the polls for independence and for Holyrood
LikeLiked by 3 people
I raised precisely this point with Professor John Curtice last year in person at an event for the tenth anniversary of the 2014 referendum. I pointed out not only the young/old age demographics but also inward and outward migration as factors creating major distortions in the use of this weighting. I asked in his capacity as President of the British (sic) Polling Council whether something should be done about the variable and scientifically dubious practices by companies. John pointed out that he had recently stood down from his role at BPC but said this was an issue pollsters were aware of and would be under review. Diplomatic and knowledgeable as John is, I’m afraid I wasn’t reassured.
By the time of the next Holyrood elections there will be people not even in primary education at the time of indyref1. Weighting so long after the event by something barely a majority were able to vote in is so dodgy that it must be done for entirely nefarious motives.
it’s time for this practice to be widely called out.
Michael Picken Glasgow
LikeLiked by 8 people
We shouldn’t be surprised about stats being distorted: we are after all dealing with ‘Perfidious Albany’ here. The continuing use by almost all English-based polls of 12 year-old weightings solely for matters relating to Independence and Holyrood suggests that distortion has been organised at a level higher than that of the polling companies.
To give an idea of the scale of distortion, the Survation weighted data above, after removal of Don’t Knows, shows YES on 46.1% (319/692) and NO on 53.9% (373/692) i.e. a 7.8% majority for NO. However, the same data without Don’t Knows and Weighting shows YES on 60.8% (409/673) and with NO dropping to 39.2% (264/673) i.e. a whopping 21.6% majority for YES.
A similar poll by Norstat in February showed a 14% majority for YES after removal of Don’t Knows and Weighting. Now, the polling questions may have been differently worded and the sample group will have been different, so comparison between the 2 polls doesn’t of itself indicate an increasing swing to YES. However, what is clear is that support for Independence is significantly higher than portrayed by the media. I agree with Michael that this must be made public knowledge as soon as possible.
LikeLiked by 3 people
Can anyone work out, from the information available, what the correct percentage is? I think we should routinely correct the polls to remove this bias whenever we have access to the data tables.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Scottish LibDem MP quickly retracts statement on Peter Murrell and SNP
Jamie Stone, who represents Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Like many others I suppose I would like to know what was in this emails as it is well know he says not very nice things about the SNP.
LikeLiked by 3 people