Despite reduced support, SNP seem likely to win across the country

The Talking-up Scotland fund raise, finishing in 6 days, to enable the recruitment of some research assistance, in order to take pressure off me [74 in June and tiring] and hopefully to further improve the blog, has made a good start. To contribute, only if you can (!) go to: Talking-up Scotland - a Politics crowdfunding project in Ayr by Professor John Robertson

By Professor John Robertson OBA, former Faculty Research Ethics Chair, UWS

From the Find Out Now poll for the Herald on15-20 January, the regional breakdown, I’ve just noticed is available, offers the above data in response to this question and filter:

65.5% theoretical turnout – If there were an election to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, and thinking about your first (constituency) vote, how would you vote?

There’s a clear SNP lead, despite reduced support, across all of the regions but the first point to keep in mind is that even within the regions there will be some quite marked differences between constituencies.

The Highlands and Islands Lib Dem figure will be much higher in Orkney and Shetland making SNP wins much more of a challenge, though not impossible, in the light of their own, non-CalMac, ferry fiascos and, perhaps, their diminishing media presence.

In Lothian and Central Scotland, the narrowest of SNP leads and a tiny Conservative support level might enable Labour to hang on in parts of Edinburgh and in Stirling.

In the North-East, with the Conservatives the opposition, the Reform vote, most damaging for them, may be enough to allow SNP wins with barely 30% of the vote.

In the West and in Glasgow, SNP wins across the board seem sure with Reform UK pushing into third place, destroying the conservatives and eating in to the Labour vote.

The South is perhaps the most varied and the Conservative seats in the south and east will be very hard, not impossible, to take while those toward the north and west of the region, including those in Ayrshire, look almost certain SNP holds.

Finally, Reform UK, in this poll which includes 16-17 year-olds, averaging only 11.5%, seem likely to only damage the Conservative and Labour vote, allowing the SNP to come through the gap and win, repeatedly, despite quite low – 30% to 35% – shares.

Source: https://cms.findoutnow.co.uk/app/uploads/2025/02/Herald-tables.xlsx

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8 thoughts on “Despite reduced support, SNP seem likely to win across the country”

  1. As it stands then devolution is the future. That can only change when the SNP start using the war cry “ALL FOR INDEPENDENCE” and every seat in the SP is utilized for independence. That can only happen when the SNP gives up the mantra vote SNP 1 and 2.

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  3. The continuing strong support for the SNP and Independence is really quite astonishing given the media landscape in Scotland .Almost without exception every mainstream media outlet , whether it be print or broadcast , is viscerally opposed to Scotland being an Independent nation .

    The tsunami of anti-SNP , anti-independence propaganda NEVER halts, even to the extent of deliberately printing/broadcasting misinformation . Scotland , and by extension its people , is portrayed either as an economic basket-case or a nation full of Welfare scroungers living off the munificence of UK/England .

    Yet despite this , Independence is polling at least 50% , with indications that , were some polls done more fairly , it would be considerably higher .

    Keep the faith !

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  4. Long comment , apologies.

    Anas Sarwar announced this week that he sees himself as the next FM in Scotland.

    I assume this was just yet another “Read my lips” moment, where the actual reality is that this declaration made by him will meet the same fate as the now many fallen declarations that he previously made in the last UK GE campaign , one being where he insisted that there would be “no austerity with Labour UK”.

    Sarwar has also been heard touting what is the new Labour in Scotland political slogan, to replace the old Labour UK and also too the old Labour in Scotland political slogan, which was “Real ‘change’ with Labour”.

    So the new Labour in Scotland political slogan now should be referred to as the new new political slogan as the old political slogan has now mysteriously disappeared.

    The old , now defunct false political slogan of Change” that Labour promoted in 2024, is to now be replaced by their new new , and probably even more false , political slogan which is that there will be a “New Direction” with Labour in charge at Holyrood.

    So the old political slogan of “Change with Labour”, now sees Sarwar being forced to abandon it or face public and political ridicule.

    As unfortunately the only “Change” we have had with Labour UK since they came to power at WM last year is very much a change for the worse , and not, as was suggested by Labour in their GE campaign last year, as being a change for the better.

    The new new Labour slogan that Sarwar is now touting is that ‘with Labour in Scotland in charge at Holyrood’ there will be a “New Direction”, yet all Sarwar seems to be actually saying and also offering Scotland, is an intention for him and Labour here in Scotland to go in the ‘Same Direction’ as Labour UK.

    As Sarwar announcing more private sector involvement in the Scottish NHS is then just a carbon copy of the ‘Same Direction’ that the Labour UK Health Secretary intends to take for the English NHS.

    Also , like Labour UK often do , we now see Sarwar doing yet another U-Turn on something he formerly supported and voted for.

    This time it is concerning the GRR bill that both Sarwar and his party supported and also voted FOR in the Scottish parliament in 2022, but now he says he regrets that former support and vote by him and his party.

    Apparently Sarwar is now calling for “clear guidance on single sex spaces” but what was the “guidance” at the time when he and his Labour colleagues voted FOR this bill in the Scottish parliament ?

    It seems that back then Sarwar needed no firm and clear “guidance” when he voted for this bill in the final stage 3 in 2022.

    The media in Scotland insist that the GRR bill is “dividing public opinion in Scotland” which I suspect is a position that the media are currently choosing to take for obvious political reasons and so they are over promoting it in order to yet again attack the Scottish government, as in the SNP.

    It seems this is being driven as a politically divisive issue by the same media who insist on keeping it ‘alive’ as a significant political story, which they then try to regurgitate it as a significant political story, but only do so when opposition parties attack it as a , checks notes, SNP bill passed at Holyrood, and so it is then presented by the media as a supposed example of yet another failure of the SNP.

    It was passed as a bill by the Scottish parliament , via members from all of the parties at Holyrood, not just only passed by the SNP members alone , as is seemingly what is being inferred by dubious sources within Scotland, that includes the media too.

    The impression the public are being given by the media is one where this was a bill only driven by and passed by the SNP.

    The final stage , stage 3 of this bill, was passed by some members of all parties including 3 Tory MSP’s and also Anas Sarwar too.

    Personally I think people in Scotland are currently feeling more bogged down, concerned with and angry at food prices still being high, energy prices still increasing and also other more pressing financial concerns that directly impact them far more negatively than the GRR bill.

    Also where they , as a public, are suddenly realising that the changes Labour UK promised in their 2024 GE campaign are not in any shape or form materialising any time soon , if indeed they ever will, in fact , if anything , things seem to be getting worse since Labour came to power in 2025 at WM.

    Strange is not that this call for ‘Safe places for women’ is not matched by a call for ‘Compensation for WASPI women’ , both are the same sex , as in both are women, yet somehow one is deemed to be far more important than the other.

    WASPI women being yet another Labour betrayal , where their former position and support for WASPI women when the Tories were in power at WM now seems to have completely evaporated , as in now that they, Labour UK, are in power in WM.

    Mind you it also seems to be that Sarwar’s former position and too his support for WASPI women has also evaporated , as he yet again took the side of Labour UK on this, in him spouting some guff about it all being the fault of the Tory ‘financial black hole’ that prevents justice being done for the WASPI women.

    WASPI women are suffering and some are also dying without having gained any justice in their lifetime, instead many of them still are and also have endured financial hardships in their final years, mainly due to a Tory government in the UK , and now also a Labour one too, who prefer to pander to the wealthy within their UK and so ensure that they , and only they, are being well served by the UK government that many of them donate to as wealthy political donors.

    I sense a pattern here with Labour UK and also very much too with Anas Sarwar.

    Then there has also been Sarwar’s ever changing position on what is the other clear betrayal by him and Labour ,which is the betrayal by Labour and Sarwar of the workers in Grangemouth Refinery, and it is also very much an act of betrayal against Scotland.

    During the 2024 UK GE campaign Sarwar promised “hundreds of millions” to be invested in Grangemouth Refinery and that jobs would be saved there, as did the now newly elected Labour MP Brian Leishman for that constituency.

    Then after the 2024 UK GE he, Sarwar, backed up the UK government, in him also declaring that there was a ‘financial black hole’ in the UK’s finances , which was apparently left by the Tories, so hard decisions had to be made which unfortunately now impacted the Grangemouth Refinery’s future.

    Then in yet another position taken by Sarwar on Grangemouth he , Sarwar, said , when he was challenged by Colin Mackay of STV News on his former pledge to Grangemouth workers, that Grangemouth was a “Private company” , so nowt to do with Labour then.

    However he, Sarwar, also said to Colin Mackay, that “the Tories and the SNP knew for five years so they could have”, checks notes, “done something with this” as in for this, checks notes again, “private company” ???

    Then Sarwar’s next, as in latest position on Grangemouth , was that the “response was ‘not good enough”, as in the response both shown and given to support those workers at Grangemouth, which I assume also included too his many different responses and positions on this matter and also too the Labour UK government’s lack of response to job losses there.

    But no, instead Sarwar just reiterated his accusation which was in accusing “the Scottish government and former Conservative UK government of “inaction” despite warnings the site would be closed”.

    However we are also supposed to believe when Sarwar was making his GE financial pledges to workers at this Grangemouth “private company” that he and Labour UK did not know about what he now refers to as being the “warnings the site would be closed”, so I fear Sarwar is now very much backed into a corner of his own making with this matter.

    A matter now seen by many voters in Scotland, especially those in Grangemouth, as being yet another Labour fiasco led by Anas Sarwar.

    Then we also have Sarwar, like Labour UK, adopting a more Reform UK kind of attitude.

    Labour UK’s stance on certain matters like for example immigration aligns with Reform UK’s position on this.

    Sarwar is copying Labour UK and also Reform UK in him now saying that he plans to set up a “Musk style DOGE department’ which is also, for him , a way to try and guarantee the support of any Reform UK party candidates who may be elected in 2026 into the Scottish parliament, the same Reform UK party that currently are attacking Labour UK and also attacking Keir Starmer as the Labour UK PM.

    However for the pubic in Scotland that is all to be seen as unimportant as the really significant point and only important matter here for the public is that Sarwar has a quest for power, that power means that principles and morals are unnecessary, especially if one needs to make a deal with the Devils that are Reform UK and too the other Devils being Labour UK . (and deals with the pro UK media in Scotland too, obviously).

    Anas Sarwar will tell the voters in Scotland that the SNP have let Scotland down and that our public services in Scotland are being failed by them as the Scottish government.

    He will also tell the public in Scotland that with Labour in charge of Scotland and also with him as the next FM that he will take Scotland in a “New Direction” . The media here will reinforce his message , not because they think it is true , but only because they also want Labour to win in 2026 and so they too want to see Anas in power as the next Labour FM in Scotland.

    The fact that Labour are failing in Wales as the Welsh government in their poor performances on most public services there, especially the NHS, is something neither Sarwar nor his client media in Scotland will ever acknowledge to the public here.

    Also reality and history tells us that when Labour ever do win in Scotland it will then only be Labour UK who are in charge of Scotland , and never ever Labour in Scotland as those who make the decisions and policies for us as a Labour Scottish government.

    So really the warning that the public in Scotland should heed for 2026 is that so far , Labour as the new UK government, have failed to fulfil all that they promised in their 2024 GE campaign and also that Labour as the Welsh Labour government have performed worse than the SNP as the Scottish government have on their public services.

    Anas Sarwar also reinforced all of these Labour UK pledges in the 2024 GE, and so he too promoted them in Scotland , as did much of the media in Scotland also promote Labour UK’s GE promises in 2024.

    That is then a clear example of the failed political template of Labour as a pro UK political party, which should then make the majority of the public in Scotland reject Anas Sarwar, his Labour party and also reject much of the fake news , as in propaganda, which will be published and promoted by Labour’s pro UK client media in the run up to the 2026 Scottish elections.

    Vote SNP in 2026 so that they will still be the Scottish government.

    Liz S

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