The Talking-up Scotland fund raiser primarily, finishing in 7 days, to enable the recruitment of some research assistance, in order to take pressure off me [74 in June and tiring] and hopefully to further improve the blog, has made a good start. To contribute, only if you can (!) go to: Talking-up Scotland - a Politics crowdfunding project in Ayr by Professor John Robertson

Professor John Robertson OBA, former Faculty Research Ethics Chair, UWS

The above results from last night leave me, as an SNP member, slightly reassured that my theory (and no doubt of others) mostly holds.

Of course, it’s just a wee council ward with a 21.7% turnout:

• Finlay Affleck, Scottish Greens: 75
• Caroline Barton, Scottish National Party (SNP): 748
• Ian Grant, Independent: 277
• Sandra Joanne Kirkwood, Reform UK: 212
• Allan MacDonald, Scottish Conservative and Unionist: 159
• Greg MacKenzie, Scottish Labour Party: 582
• Lee Manley, Scottish Liberal Democrats: 37
• Stephen McNamara: 2

First reactions:

• Reform UK much less popular here [10%] than Scotland-wide polling suggests [c20%]?
• Labour almost held on to their vote share – really?
• SNP share still dramatically down after 7 months of Labour – really?
• The expelled Conservative now Independent is better liked than his former party?
• The Libertarian finds that only his best pal and/or his dad have a clue what that means?

Back to that theory, what is it?

Despite reduced support, the SNP will ‘come through the gap’ and win thanks to Reform UK splitting the Union vote.

It makes sense and I suspect it will apply across constituencies where Labour is the main opposition but where it’s the Cons, might Reform UK support, still growing in Scotland, be enough to take the seats?

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About Oliver Brown, the first Scottish National Party candidate to save his deposit in a Parliamentary election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Brow